Live prediction market odds for TX-04 House Election Winner. Compare prices across .
Listed Resolved
This market resolved on Nov 4, 2026. Pat Fallon (R) was the officially declared outcome.
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the TX-04 House Election, held on November 3, 2026.
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the TX-04 House Election, held on November 3, 2026. The market resolves based on the official certified results of the election, which will determine the representative for Texas's 4th congressional district.
| Question | Result |
|---|---|
Pat Fallon (R)WINNER | Yes |
Jason Pearce (D) | No |
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.
KalshiIf the House member sworn in for TX-04 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
Polymarket USThis market will settle to Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the TX-04 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.
The TX-04 House Election is scheduled for November 3, 2026. This date is when voters will cast their ballots for the congressional representative.
The winner will be determined by the official certified results of the election. This means that the candidate who receives the most votes will be declared the winner.
Polymarket and Kalshi are the platforms currently tracking the TX-04 House Election. They provide real-time odds on the potential outcomes of the election.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Venue prices are not currently available on this page. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result. This event is archived; prices shown are historical.
No historical prices are available on this page. The last available price is not necessarily the final settlement price.
