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Live prediction market odds for TX-04 House Election Winner. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

Kalshi

Kalshi

4.9
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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket

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TX-04 House Election Winner

2026-11-03

Best price · tap to trade

Pat Fallon (R)95¢1.05xPolymarket USJason Pearce (D)8¢12.50xPolymarket US

About This Market

Traders give Pat Fallon (R) about a 94.0% chance. Jason Pearce (D) follows at 6.0%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.5 percentage points.

Traders give Pat Fallon (R) about a 94.0% chance. Jason Pearce (D) follows at 6.0%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.5 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the TX-04 House Election, scheduled for November 3, 2026. The market resolves based on the official certified results of the election, which will determine the representative for Texas's 4th congressional district.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
PF
Pat Fallon (R)
94%
Kalshi96¢
Polymarket US95¢
Polymarket95¢
Polymarket US1.05x95¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
93.3%91¢96¢4¢9¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
94.0%93¢95¢5¢7¢
PolymarketPolymarket
94.5%94¢95¢5¢6¢
JP
Jason Pearce (D)ARB
6%
Kalshi9¢
Polymarket US8¢
Polymarket5¢
Polymarket US12.50x8¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
6.5%4¢9¢91¢96¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
7.0%7¢8¢92¢93¢
PolymarketPolymarket
4.5%4¢5¢95¢96¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Pat Fallon (R)

Pat Fallon is the Republican U.S. Representative for Texas's 4th congressional district. He served in the Texas House of Representatives from 2013 to 2019 and in the Texas State Senate from 2019 to 2021. He has been serving as the U.S. Representative for Texas's 4th congressional district since 2021.

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread2.5%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Pat Fallon (R)

94.0% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: TX-04 House Election Winner

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for TX-04 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the TX-04 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the date of the TX-04 House Election?

The TX-04 House Election is scheduled for November 3, 2026. This date is when voters will cast their ballots for the congressional representative.

How will the winner of the TX-04 House Election be determined?

The winner will be determined by the official certified results of the election. This means that the candidate who receives the most votes will be declared the winner.

Which platforms are tracking the TX-04 House Election?

Polymarket and Kalshi are the platforms currently tracking the TX-04 House Election. They provide real-time odds on the potential outcomes of the election.

What does the TX-04 House Election Winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest TX-04 House Election Winner odds?

The latest available prices are Pat Fallon (R): 93.3¢ on Kalshi, 94.5¢ on Polymarket, 94.0¢ on Polymarket US; Jason Pearce (D): 6.5¢ on Kalshi, 4.5¢ on Polymarket, 7.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Trader up $116K lifetime bet $1.8K on No at 95¢

6d ago
PolymarketPolymarket USWill the Democratic Party win the TX-04 House seat?Trade on Polymarket US →