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Live prediction market odds for TX-05 House Election Winner. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket

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TX-05 House Election Winner

2026-11-03

Best price · tap to trade

Lance Gooden (R)99¢1.01xKalshiChelsey Hockett (D)2¢50.00xPolymarket US

About This Market

Traders give Lance Gooden (R) about a 96.5% chance. Chelsey Hockett (D) follows at 1.5%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 4.5 percentage points.

Traders give Lance Gooden (R) about a 96.5% chance. Chelsey Hockett (D) follows at 1.5%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 4.5 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the TX-05 House Election. This election will be resolved based on the official results announced after the polls close on November 3, 2026, and odds will fluctuate with campaign developments and voter turnout predictions.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
LG
Lance Gooden (R)ARB
97%
Kalshi99¢
Polymarket US99¢
Polymarket95¢
Kalshi1.01x99¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
96.1%93¢99¢1¢7¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
99.0%98¢99¢1¢2¢
PolymarketPolymarket
94.5%94¢95¢5¢6¢
CH
Chelsey Hockett (D)
2%
Kalshi6¢
Polymarket US2¢
Polymarket1¢
Polymarket US50.00x2¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
2.7%1¢6¢94¢99¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
1.5%1¢2¢98¢99¢
PolymarketPolymarket
0.3%0¢1¢99¢100¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Lance Gooden (R)

Lance Gooden is the U.S. Representative for Texas's 5th Congressional District, serving his fourth term in the House of Representatives. Before his congressional tenure, he served three terms in the Texas House of Representatives and worked in the insurance industry for a decade. He is a member of the House Committee on the Judiciary and the House Armed Services Committee.

About Chelsey Hockett (D)

Chelsey Hockett is a Democratic candidate for the U.S. House of Representatives in Texas's 5th congressional district. She is a community organizer and mother of two from Terrell, Texas, with a background in grassroots activism. Hockett is running for Congress to advocate for working-class issues and to provide representation for everyday Texans.

Smart Trade Router

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread4.5%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Lance Gooden (R)

96.5% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: TX-05 House Election Winner

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for TX-05 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the TX-05 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the date of the TX-05 House Election?

The TX-05 House Election is scheduled for November 3, 2026. This date marks the general election when voters will cast their ballots.

How will the winner of the TX-05 House Election be determined?

The winner will be determined by the official election results announced after the polls close. These results will reflect the total votes counted for each candidate.

What factors influence the odds for the TX-05 House Election winner?

Odds are influenced by various factors including candidate campaign activities, polling data, and voter turnout estimates. Changes in public opinion and major news events can also impact the market.

What does the TX-05 House Election Winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest TX-05 House Election Winner odds?

The latest available prices are Lance Gooden (R): 96.1¢ on Kalshi, 94.5¢ on Polymarket, 99.0¢ on Polymarket US; Chelsey Hockett (D): 2.7¢ on Kalshi, 0.3¢ on Polymarket, 1.5¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Swiss initiatives: September 2026

Resolved Sep 27

Final odds

Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

Gooden Hits 94% in TX-05 as Ethics Probe Fails to Dent His ReelectionPrediction markets price Gooden as a near-lock despite an active House Ethics Committee probe, with opponent Chelsey Hockett holding just $5,000 cash on hand.Sep 27, 2026
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Live tracking of high-volume trades from historically profitable accounts.

Trader up $131K lifetime bet $1.4K on No at 95¢

2d ago
PolymarketPolymarket USWill the Democratic Party win the TX-05 House seat?Trade on Polymarket US →

Trader up $131K lifetime bet $4.8K on No at 97¢

2d ago
PolymarketPolymarket USWill the Democratic Party win the TX-05 House seat?Trade on Polymarket US →

Trader up $131K lifetime bet $2.8K on No at 98¢

2d ago
PolymarketPolymarket USWill the Democratic Party win the TX-05 House seat?Trade on Polymarket US →

Trader up $116K lifetime bet $1.1K on No at 94¢

6d ago
PolymarketPolymarket USWill the Democratic Party win the TX-05 House seat?Trade on Polymarket US →