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Live prediction market odds for TX-11 House Election Winner. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

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Kalshi

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket

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TX-11 House Election Winner

2026-11-03

Best price · tap to trade

August Pfluger (R)94¢1.06xPolymarket USClaire Reynolds (D)7¢14.29xKalshi

About This Market

Traders give August Pfluger (R) about a 94.7% chance. Claire Reynolds (D) follows at 4.2%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.9 percentage points.

Traders give August Pfluger (R) about a 94.7% chance. Claire Reynolds (D) follows at 4.2%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.9 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the TX-11 House Election Winner. This market resolves based on the official election results announced on November 3, 2026, following the conclusion of the voting process in Texas's 11th congressional district.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
AP
August Pfluger (R)
95%
Kalshi97¢
Polymarket US94¢
Polymarket98¢
Polymarket US1.06x94¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
94.2%92¢97¢3¢9¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
93.5%93¢94¢6¢7¢
PolymarketPolymarket
96.4%95¢98¢2¢5¢
CR
Claire Reynolds (D)
4%
Kalshi7¢
—
Polymarket5¢
Kalshi14.49x7¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
5.1%3¢7¢93¢97¢
PolymarketPolymarket
3.4%2¢5¢95¢98¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About August Pfluger (R)

August Pfluger is the U.S. Representative for Texas's 11th Congressional District, serving since January 3, 2021. Before entering politics, he served as a colonel in the U.S. Air Force, including a tenure as a National Security Council advisor. He currently chairs the Republican Study Committee, the largest conservative caucus in the House of Representatives.

About Claire Reynolds (D)

Claire Reynolds is an attorney and former journalist from Austin, Texas. She served as a prosecutor in the State Bar of Texas's Office of the Chief Disciplinary Counsel, handling attorney misconduct cases. Her legal expertise and experience in disciplinary proceedings are pertinent to her candidacy for the U.S. House of Representatives in Texas's 11th Congressional District.

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread2.9%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

August Pfluger (R)

94.7% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: TX-11 House Election Winner

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for TX-11 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the TX-11 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the date of the TX-11 House Election?

The TX-11 House Election is scheduled for November 3, 2026. This date marks the general election for congressional seats across the United States.

How will the winner of the TX-11 House Election be determined?

The winner will be determined by the official election results from Texas's 11th congressional district. Votes will be counted and reported after the polls close on election day.

Which platforms are tracking the TX-11 House Election Winner?

Polymarket and Kalshi are the platforms currently tracking the TX-11 House Election Winner. They provide real-time odds based on market sentiment leading up to the election.

What does the TX-11 House Election Winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest TX-11 House Election Winner odds?

The latest available prices are August Pfluger (R): 94.2¢ on Kalshi, 96.4¢ on Polymarket, 93.5¢ on Polymarket US; Claire Reynolds (D): 5.1¢ on Kalshi, 3.4¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Trader up $116K lifetime bet $1.2K on No at 95¢

6d ago
PolymarketPolymarket USWill the Democratic Party win the TX-11 House seat?Trade on Polymarket US →