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Live prediction market odds for TX-37 House Election Winner. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

Kalshi

Kalshi

4.9
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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket

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TX-37 House Election Winner

2026-11-03

Best price · tap to trade

Greg Casar (D)97¢1.03xPolymarket USRepublican5¢20.00xPolymarket US

About This Market

Traders give Greg Casar (D) about a 96.1% chance. Republican follows at 3.9%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 3.1 percentage points.

Traders give Greg Casar (D) about a 96.1% chance. Republican follows at 3.9%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 3.1 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the TX-37 House Election, set for November 3, 2026. The market resolves based on the official election results announced by the Texas Secretary of State following the election day voting.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
GC
Greg Casar (D)
96%
Kalshi97¢
Polymarket US97¢
Polymarket98¢
Polymarket US1.03x97¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
94.7%92¢97¢3¢8¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
96.5%96¢97¢3¢4¢
PolymarketPolymarket
97.3%97¢98¢2¢4¢
R
RepublicanARB
4%
Kalshi7¢
Polymarket US5¢
Polymarket2¢
Polymarket US20.00x5¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
4.9%3¢7¢93¢97¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
5.0%4¢5¢95¢96¢
PolymarketPolymarket
1.9%2¢2¢98¢99¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Greg Casar (D)

Greg Casar is the current U.S. Representative for Texas's 35th Congressional District and Chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus. He previously served on the Austin City Council from 2015 to 2022. Casar is recognized for his advocacy on labor rights, affordable housing, and immigrant protections.

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread3.1%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Greg Casar (D)

96.1% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: TX-37 House Election Winner

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for TX-37 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the TX-37 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the date of the TX-37 House Election?

The TX-37 House Election is scheduled for November 3, 2026. This date marks the general election for the House of Representatives.

How will the winner of the TX-37 House Election be determined?

The winner will be determined by the official election results announced by the Texas Secretary of State. These results will reflect the votes cast on election day.

Which platforms are tracking the TX-37 House Election winner?

Polymarket and Kalshi are the platforms currently tracking the TX-37 House Election winner. They provide real-time odds based on market sentiment.

What does the TX-37 House Election Winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest TX-37 House Election Winner odds?

The latest available prices are Greg Casar (D): 94.7¢ on Kalshi, 97.3¢ on Polymarket, 96.5¢ on Polymarket US; Republican: 4.9¢ on Kalshi, 1.9¢ on Polymarket, 5.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Swiss initiatives: September 2026

Resolved Sep 27

Final odds

Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

Casar's TX-37 Opponent Has $770. Why Not 100%?Casar sits at 96% with a 775-to-1 fundraising edge over Lauren Peña. The residual 4% is a time premium, not competitive risk.Sep 28, 2026