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Live prediction market odds for VA-08 House Election Winner. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket

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VA-08 House Election Winner

2026-11-03

Best price · tap to trade

Don Beyer (D)96¢1.04xPolymarket USTony Sabio (R)4¢25.00xKalshi

About This Market

Traders give Don Beyer (D) about a 96.1% chance. Tony Sabio (R) follows at 2.8%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 1.9 percentage points.

Traders give Don Beyer (D) about a 96.1% chance. Tony Sabio (R) follows at 2.8%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 1.9 percentage points.

Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the VA-08 House Election. The election will be resolved based on the official results announced after the polls close on November 3, 2026, with odds fluctuating based on campaign developments and voter sentiment leading up to that date.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
DB
Don Beyer (D)
96%
Kalshi99¢
Polymarket US96¢
Polymarket97¢
Polymarket US1.04x96¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
97.1%95¢99¢1¢5¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
95.5%95¢96¢4¢5¢
PolymarketPolymarket
95.8%95¢97¢3¢6¢
TS
Tony Sabio (R)
3%
Kalshi4¢
Polymarket US6¢
Polymarket3¢
Kalshi25.00x4¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
2.1%0¢4¢96¢100¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
4.0%4¢6¢94¢96¢
PolymarketPolymarket
2.2%2¢3¢97¢98¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Don Beyer (D)

Don Beyer is the U.S. Representative for Virginia's 8th District, serving his sixth term in Congress. He previously served as the 36th Lieutenant Governor of Virginia and as Ambassador to Switzerland and Liechtenstein under President Obama. Beyer is a member of the House Committee on Ways and Means and the House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology.

About Tony Sabio (R)

Tony Sabio is the Republican nominee for Virginia's 8th Congressional District in the 2026 U.S. House elections. He served over 15 years in federal service, including roles in the U.S. Navy, Secret Service, and CIA. His campaign focuses on energy affordability, job creation, small business support, public safety, and healthcare choice.

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread1.9%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Don Beyer (D)

96.1% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: VA-08 House Election Winner

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for VA-08 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the VA-08 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the resolution date for the VA-08 House Election winner market?

The market resolves on November 3, 2026, when the official election results are announced.

How do odds change for the VA-08 House Election winner?

Odds fluctuate based on campaign activities, public polling data, and major political events leading up to the election.

What platforms are tracking the VA-08 House Election winner?

Polymarket and Kalshi are the platforms currently tracking the VA-08 House Election winner.

What does the VA-08 House Election Winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest VA-08 House Election Winner odds?

The latest available prices are Don Beyer (D): 97.1¢ on Kalshi, 95.8¢ on Polymarket, 95.5¢ on Polymarket US; Tony Sabio (R): 2.1¢ on Kalshi, 2.2¢ on Polymarket, 4.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Don Beyer Hits 96% in VA-08 as GOP Fields No Real ChallengerBeyer's primary win at 67% and a canceled GOP primary pushed his market price to 96%. The district backed Democrats by 47 points in 2024.Sep 28, 2026