Will Susan Collins outperform the Real Clear Polling average in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Maine?
Live prediction market odds for Will Susan Collins outperform the Real Clear Polling average in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Maine?. Compare prices across Kalshi and PredictIt.
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Traders give Will Susan Collins outperform the Real Clear Polling average in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Maine? about a 4.3% chance. Compare prices from Kalshi and PredictIt. The largest cross-platform price difference is 5.5 percentage points.
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf Susan Collins's margin of victory outperforms that of the Real Clear Polling average at 10 AM ET on Nov 3, 2026 in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Maine, then the market resolves to Yes. The market compares the official certified election result to the specified poll or polling average. "Outperform" means the actual result exceeds the poll figure; "underperform" means it falls short. Only certified results count - not preliminary tallies or projections. If using a poll range, the midpoint is used for comparison. Margins of error are not considered; any difference counts as over/underperformance. For the purposes of this market, the Real Clear Polling average for the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Maine at 10 AM ET on November 3, 2026 is used to determine relative performance. At that time the average was Jackson 50.2%, Collins 46.6% (Jackson +3.6), so Susan Collins's polling margin is -3.6 points. Susan Collins outperforms if the certified margin of victory is greater than -3.6 points. For a winning candidate, the margin of victory is calculated as the difference between the candidate's vote share and their closest competitor's share. For a losing candidate, the margin of victory is calculated as the difference between the candidate’s vote share and the vote share of the candidate immediately ahead of them. Positive margins indicate the candidate won, negative margins indicate they lost, and zero indicates a tie. The polling margin is calculated the same way from the RCP Average figures, so a deficit in the average is a negative margin. Vote shares are percentages of all votes cast for the office. Write-in votes are aggregated as a single candidate if not individually reported. Only certified results are used for resolution. Recounts that change the certified margin before expiration use the most recent certified results. Margins use first-round (first-choice) results; later ranked-choice rounds are not used.
The Real Clear Polling average is a compilation of various polls that gauge voter sentiment leading up to elections. It provides a benchmark against which candidates' performances can be measured.
This market resolves based on the final vote percentage that Susan Collins receives in the election. If her percentage exceeds the Real Clear Polling average, the market will settle in her favor.
Odds in this market can be influenced by campaign events, changes in voter sentiment, and updates to polling data. Significant endorsements or controversies may also impact Collins' perceived chances.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, PredictIt in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
The latest available prices are Will Susan Collins outperform the Real Clear Polling average in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Maine?: 7.0¢ on Kalshi, 1.5¢ on PredictIt. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.
