About This Market
Traders give Before Election Day about a 6.5% chance. Before 2028 follows at 3.7% and Before 2027 follows at 2.7%. Compare prices from Kalshi.
Will Trump run for a third term?
Will Trump run for a third term?
Live prediction market odds for Will Trump run for a third term?. Compare prices across Kalshi.
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Traders give Before Election Day about a 6.5% chance. Before 2028 follows at 3.7% and Before 2027 follows at 2.7%. Compare prices from Kalshi.
KalshiKalshiOfficial settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf Donald Trump has announced that they will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Jan 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.
The person must publicly announce their campaign for it to be reported by a Source Agency. Merely filing campaign paperwork with the Federal Election Commission or similar entity is insufficient without a public announcement. The announcement must be for the specific office and election year listed. Exploratory committees or statements of interest without formal campaign announcements do not qualify. Running for a party's nomination to contest the office counts as running for that office. The announcement must come from the person themselves or their official campaign, not from speculation or third-party sources.
Trump's decision may be influenced by his current popularity among voters, potential legal issues, and the political landscape leading up to the election. Additionally, endorsements and support from key party figures could play a role.
Prediction markets aggregate the collective opinions of participants to forecast the likelihood of specific outcomes, such as election candidacies. Prices fluctuate based on new information, polling data, and public sentiment.
A third term run by Trump could reshape the Republican Party and influence the dynamics of the 2028 election. It would also reflect ongoing public interest in his political career and policies.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
The latest available prices are Before Election Day: 6.5¢ on Kalshi; Before 2028: 3.7¢ on Kalshi; Before 2027: 2.7¢ on Kalshi. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.