Acton Leads Ramaswamy 50-43 in Marist Poll; Ohio Odds Hit 77%

Amy Acton's chances of winning the Ohio governor's race are priced at 77% in the "Ohio Governor winner?" market as of Oct. 21, after a Marist poll showed her leading Republican Vivek Ramaswamy 50-43 among likely voters. The survey, fielded Oct. 15-18 among 1,176 Ohio voters and released Oct. 20, is Acton's strongest recent result. Other recent polls are tighter, and two show Ramaswamy narrowly ahead. Cook Political Report still rates the open-seat race, which will decide Gov. Mike DeWine's successor on Nov. 3, a toss-up.

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Amy Acton Ohio Governor Odds Rise to 77% After Marist Poll

Prediction markets moved Acton's way. Her implied probability reached 77% on Oct. 21, up roughly 6 percentage points from 71% three days earlier. That 71% is the period low. Venue prices sit close together: Kalshi at 76%, Polymarket at 78% and PredictIt at 78%.

Live market odds

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Ohio Governor winner?

Each outcome's chance, from what traders are paying right now on Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt and Predict.fun.

Amy Acton (D)In this story

84%

KalshiBest price1.20x83¢Polymarket1.19x84¢Predict.fun1.18x85¢PredictIt1.14x88¢

Vivek Ramaswamy (R)

17%

PolymarketBest price5.88x17¢Kalshi5.56x18¢PredictIt5.56x18¢Predict.fun5.26x19¢

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The timing lines up with the Marist release, but we could not establish that the poll alone caused the move.

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Are There Polls for Amy Acton (D) in the Ohio Governor Race?

Yes, and they disagree. Marist also shows Acton ahead 53-34 among independents. A Bowling Green State University/YouGov poll (Sept. 29-Oct. 9) had her up 50-44, within its margin of error. Two others favor Ramaswamy. ActiVote (fielded Sept. 27-Oct. 19, n=400) put him ahead 51.4-48.6, within its error. Co/efficient (Oct. 5-6) had him up 45-43. Decision Desk HQ's average shows Acton ahead by about 3.5 points.

Cook's toss-up rating is a forecaster's judgment, not a poll. The market price is a third measure. A 7-point poll lead estimates vote share, while a 77% price estimates the probability of winning. Traders are not predicting that Acton takes 77% of the vote. They are pricing her as a strong favorite in a race where the polling average and Cook both point to something closer.

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Acton's Rise Came Despite the Estranged-Mother Ad, Spending Gap and Debate Refusal

The repricing came during Acton's roughest news cycle of the campaign. An unattributed online ad circulated overnight Oct. 19-20, showing her long-estranged mother, Donna Arthur, calling her "a liar" and suggesting she has mental health problems, according to the Associated Press. Ramaswamy's campaign did not disavow it. Spokeswoman Connie Luck said Acton "has some serious problems with the truth," the Washington Post reported.

Acton said she would not "normalize" Ramaswamy, whom she accused of a pattern of personal attacks, per ABC News. Her brother, Philip Stearns, issued a statement through her campaign that blamed Ramaswamy and described the abuse Acton suffered as a child. The campaign has also questioned the addresses on Ramaswamy's voter registration and New York bar records.

Money favors Ramaswamy. CNN counts more than $120 million in ad spending by his campaign and allied groups, about three times Acton's total. Acton has also refused to debate him, and Ramaswamy has made that refusal a campaign issue. In a WOIO interview, she defended her decision and laid out an affordability plan: a "working families tax cut," lower electric bills, a larger homestead exemption for seniors and a 100-day agenda.

The sources do not show how traders weighed these pressures against the poll. With a toss-up rating and two polls showing Ramaswamy ahead, the race could still tighten in the final two weeks.

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What the 77% Price for Acton Does and Doesn't Mean

The price reflects the market's estimate of who wins. It does not predict the margin. The contract resolves on the winner of the Nov. 3 election. If Acton wins, she would be Ohio's first elected female governor and the first Democrat to win the office since Ted Strickland in 2006. The live Ohio governor winner market tracks pricing as more polls arrive. For now, traders rate Acton more confidently than either Cook or the polling average does.