Minnesota Senate Polls: Flanagan Leads Tafoya 47-43 as DFL Volume Jumps

The newest Minnesota Senate poll shows DFL Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan leading Republican Michele Tafoya 47% to 43%, according to the Star Tribune/KARE 11 Minnesota Poll published Oct. 12. The same day, the Democratic (DFL) outcome in the "Minnesota Senate winner?" market traded $59,320 across 207 trades, 4.18x its prior seven-day average of $14,191 per day. That is $45,129 above baseline.

The price barely reacted. The DFL contract moved from 86% to 87%, where it stood on Oct. 13. The sources show the poll and the volume landed on the same day; they cannot show that the poll caused the trading.

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How Unusual Was Oct. 12 in the Market's Daily Volume History?

The calculation is simple to reproduce. The seven completed days from Oct. 5 through Oct. 11 totaled $99,336.33. Dividing by seven gives $14,190.90 per day. Oct. 12's $59,319.99 divided by that figure equals 4.18.

The chart also shows an earlier spike on Sept. 25 of $40,461.57. Oct. 12 ran about 1.47x that day, making it the largest day in the window we observed. That is not a record claim: the market is only 29 days old, so its history is short.

Two details sharpen the picture:

• Fewer trades, bigger tickets. The 207 trades on Oct. 12 fell below the baseline average of about 250 per day. Dollars per trade rose, so larger positions, not more activity, drove the jump.
• One venue carried it. Kalshi recorded $57,746 across 176 trades. Polymarket logged $1,574 across 31 trades. More than 97% of the day's dollars came through Kalshi.

The limits: a seven-day baseline, a single outcome, and no data on who bought or which side they took.

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Why Did Trading Volume Rise on the DFL Minnesota Senate Market?

The clearest dated development is the Minnesota Poll itself. Mason-Dixon fielded it Oct. 5-7 among 800 likely voters, with a margin of error of ±3.5 points, and the Star Tribune published it at about 5:00 a.m. CT on Oct. 12. Flanagan's lead came from large margins in Hennepin and Ramsey counties, while Tafoya led independents 38% to 32%. The Hill amplified the result the same day.

MPR News also published on Oct. 12, framing the race as "simmering" ahead of the campaign's only scheduled debate. It reported post-primary outside spending of about $2 million, roughly $1.3 million of it on pro-Flanagan freeway billboards, compared with more than $20 million spent by outside groups during the primary.

We found no withdrawal, scandal, ruling, or other breaking event in the window. Heavy volume at a flat price fits either two-sided trading or large orders filled near the same level, but the data cannot distinguish them. The counter-reading matters: a four-point lead barely outside the margin of error, with 9% undecided, could be read as a warning for the DFL as easily as a confirmation. The one-point move does not show which reading won.

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Market landscape: outcomes and contracts

Yes. Three recent surveys show Flanagan ahead by varying margins:

| Poll | Field dates | Flanagan | Tafoya | |---|---|---|---| | Star Tribune/KARE 11 (Mason-Dixon), n=800 | Oct. 5-7 | 47% | 43% | | Rasmussen, n=856 LV | Oct. 5-7 | 48% | 45% | | GQR for Senate Majority PAC (Democratic sponsor), two-way | Oct. 1-4 | 53% | 44% |

A four-point lead and an 87% implied probability measure different things. The poll estimates vote share; the contract prices the chance of winning. Minnesota has not elected a Republican senator since 2002, and Trump's approval sits near 38%, context that may help explain why traders price the DFL above what a single narrow poll implies.

Market map: what you can trade

Live market odds

4 venues

Minnesota Senate winner?

Each outcome's chance, from what traders are paying right now on Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket and PredictIt.

Peggy Flanagan (D)In this story

86%

KalshiBest price1.16x86¢PredictIt1.16x86¢Polymarket US1.15x87¢Polymarket1.14x88¢

Michele Tafoya (R)

14%

PolymarketBest price7.69x13¢Kalshi6.67x15¢PredictIt6.25x16¢

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The anchor contract pays if the DFL party wins the Minnesota Senate seat on Nov. 3, 2026. On Oct. 13 it priced at 87% overall: Kalshi 86%, Polymarket 88%, Polymarket US 86%, PredictIt 86%. The supplied data list no competitor outcome prices; the Republican side is effectively the other side of this contract. Despite four listed venues, Kalshi carried almost all of the Oct. 12 dollars. By baseline volume the market ranked last of nine comparable markets (11th percentile), so the spike started from a quiet base.

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What Could Keep Minnesota Senate Market Volume Elevated, or Let It Fade?

The next scheduled catalyst is the only debate: Friday, Oct. 16, at noon on MPR News' "Politics Friday," moderated by Brian Bakst. Campaign activity is also picking up. Senate Majority Leader John Thune campaigned for Tafoya in Le Sueur, Angie Craig is set to stump for Flanagan, and Flanagan is running a 30-events-in-30-days closing tour, per MinnMix.

The fade case is visible in the chart: after the Sept. 25 spike, activity settled to the $14,191 daily average recorded Oct. 5-11. If outside money keeps bypassing the race, as the Star Tribune reported, attention may follow.

Watch two signals on the Minnesota Senate winner odds page: whether daily volume holds above the $14,191 baseline through debate day, and whether Kalshi keeps its share. This finding rests on one poll day, with no buyer or side data.