Will Oil Be Above $97 on Election Day? WTI Tops $100 on Hormuz

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Will Oil Be Above $97 on Election Day 2026? The $97 Or Above Contract Rose to 62%

The $97 Or Above contract in Kalshi's Oil Price (WTI) on Election Day (November 3, 2026) market rose to 62%, as of Oct 17, because WTI is already above the strike. Front-month WTI settled at $101.41 on Oct 16, up 3.5% on the day. That was its highest close since Sept 17 and about 10% above the roughly $91.66 it traded at on Oct 9. Iran stepped up strikes on Strait of Hormuz shipping.

The contract rose from 34% to 62% over three days, as of Oct 17. WTI must settle at $97 or higher on November 3, 2026, for the contract to pay.

Live market odds

1 venue

Oil Price (WTI) on Election Day (November 3, 2026)?

Each outcome's chance, from what traders are paying right now on Kalshi.

$97 Or AboveIn this story

60%

Kalshi1.67x60¢

$75 Or Above

98%

Kalshi1.01x99¢

$76 Or Above

98%

Kalshi1.01x99¢

$77 Or Above

97%

Kalshi1.02x98¢

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How WTI's Weekly Rally Moved the $97 Strike From Out of the Money to In the Money

The contract flipped because the underlying futures price crossed the strike. On Oct 9, WTI sat about $5 below $97. On Oct 15, November futures closed at $97.97, up 3%, helped by an 8 million barrel US inventory draw tied to hurricane production shut-ins. The Oct 16 settle then put WTI about $4.41 above the strike. Brent touched $110 for the first time since May, Business Recorder reported.

The 62% probability sits well short of certainty because the contract settles on the November 3 price, not the October 16 price. A decline of about 4.4% over the remaining 2.5 weeks would push WTI back below $97. A rally of similar size built up over just one week. Our sources include no oil news from the last 72 hours, so the 62% may reflect developments this article cannot confirm.

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What Could Cap WTI Before November 3: IEA Diesel Release and a Possible SPR Exchange

Policymakers are already responding to the supply squeeze:

• IEA diesel release. On Oct 15, the International Energy Agency agreed to release more than 20 million barrels of diesel. European diesel refining margins fell nearly 2% the next day to $78.67 a barrel, down from a September peak of $95, according to CNBC.
• Possible SPR exchange. The US Department of Energy has requested proposals for an exchange of up to 17 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. No exchange has been confirmed.
• Shadow-fleet sanctions. The Trump administration is weighing easing sanctions on "shadow fleet" tankers.

The sources do not estimate how much any of these steps would move WTI, or when the SPR barrels would arrive.

The upside risks have no clear end date either. Kpler analysts expect "a slower and more uneven recovery in Hormuz flows in the absence of a comprehensive political deal." Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure and Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries, including Ryazan, add further supply pressure. The sources do not establish how long the blockade or the Hormuz attacks will last.

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What to Watch Next for the $97 Or Above Contract

• The price buffer: whether WTI settlements stay above $97 heading into November 3, and whether the roughly $4 cushion holds.
• Supply releases: any confirmed SPR exchange award or further IEA action.
• Hormuz shipping: any political deal, ceasefire, or change in the US blockade of Iranian ports that restores Gulf crude flows.
• Resolution: the contract settles on the front-month WTI price on Election Day, November 3, 2026, and the market resolves Nov 11.

Live prices for every strike are on the WTI Election Day oil price market page.