Conservative Chances of Winning Next UK Election Jump as Tories Pass

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Conservative Chances of Winning the Next UK General Election Rise to 26%

The Conservatives' chances of winning the next UK general election rose to 26% on Kalshi's "Which party will win the next UK general election?" market on 9 Nov, up from 15% three days earlier, after polls showed Kemi Badenoch's party narrowly overtaking Reform UK for second place. Labour still leads every major average by about 7 points. The Telegraph tracker on 9 Nov put the Tories at 21.73% and Reform at 21.66%, with Labour first on 28.7%, according to the Telegraph.

The Tory edge over Reform is 0.07 points, effectively a tie for second.

Live market odds

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Which party will win the next UK general election?

Each outcome's chance, from what traders are paying right now on Kalshi.

Conservative partyIn this story

26%

Kalshi3.57x28¢

Labour party

38%

Kalshi2.50x40¢

Reform party

29%

Kalshi3.13x32¢

Restore Britain party

3%

Kalshi25.64x3.9¢

Liberal Democratic party: under 1% eachShow all

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The market is pricing a change in who holds second place. The polls show how thin that change is.

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Are There Polls for the Conservative Party in the Next UK Election?

Yes. Several trackers updated on 8-9 Nov, and most show Reform slipping behind the Tories:

• Telegraph tracker (9 Nov): Labour 28.7%, Conservatives 21.73%, Reform 21.66%. The Tories are ahead of Reform in all approved polls the tracker aggregates for the first time in about two years.
• Election Maps UK poll of polls (9 Nov): Labour 29.1%, Conservatives 22%, Reform 21.9%. HuffPost UK reported that YouGov head-to-heads favour both Andy Burnham and Badenoch over Nigel Farage as prime minister.
• Lord Ashcroft (fieldwork 29 Oct-2 Nov, 5,253 respondents): Labour 31, Conservatives 26, Reform 18. This was the widest Tory lead over Reform in the cluster, and Farage disputed it, the Independent reported.
• UK Fact Check tracker (8 Nov): Labour 29.2%, Reform 22.0%, Conservatives 21.6%. This tracker still had Reform second and projected Labour as the largest party on 204 seats, according to UK Fact Check.

These figures measure national vote intention today. The market price measures the probability that the Conservatives win a general election that must be held by 2029. A 21.7% vote share does not translate into a 26% chance of winning, and the closeness of the two figures is coincidental.

Read together, the polls describe a Conservative recovery driven by a Reform slump, not a Conservative lead. Reform's slide has followed a standards investigation into an undeclared £5m donation from Christopher Harborne, which Farage denies, an undercover ITV documentary on activists, and defections of support to Rupert Lowe's Restore Britain, which polls around 4%.

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How the Conservative Price Moved from 15% to 26%

The rally lines up with the 8-9 Nov releases. The Ashcroft poll landed around 8 Nov, and the Telegraph and Election Maps UK updates followed on 9 Nov, with the Independent reporting "yet another poll" putting Reform third. The sources establish only that the timing matches. None of them ties the Harborne investigation directly to the price move.

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Does a Second-Place Poll Finish Make the Tories Favourites?

No. Labour leads by roughly 7 points in the Telegraph, Election Maps UK and UK Fact Check averages, and by 5 points in Ashcroft's poll. A lead over Reform is not a lead over Labour. The 0.07-point Tory-Reform gap in the Telegraph tracker falls within normal polling noise, and UK Fact Check still had Reform second a day earlier. One or two new releases could reverse the order.

The contract settles on which party wins the next general election, with resolution set for 31 Aug 2029. Poll position in November 2026 does not count toward settlement. Labour has also changed leader: Keir Starmer resigned in June 2026 and Andy Burnham became Prime Minister in July 2026, according to Wikipedia. Live prices for every party sit on the UK general election winner market page.

The Tories have recovered to roughly level with Reform. Labour remains ahead.