FL-27 House winner? Latest News

Resolved Nov 11, 2026

FL-27 House winner?

This market settled on November 11, 2026, so nothing below is tradeable. These are the last prices each venue published before settlement, not live quotes.

Compare every venueClosing prices, not an entry point

Hover the chart for prices over time. Each dot under it is a story update; hover to preview it, click to jump to it.

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Background

Florida's 27th Congressional District, covering parts of Miami-Dade County, will choose its U.S. House member on November 3. Republican Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar is seeking a fourth term against Democrat Eliott Rodriguez, a former CBS Miami anchor who won the Democratic primary on August 18 over Robin Peguero. Cook Political Report, Fox News and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the seat Lean R.

This is a single-round, two-candidate general election with no runoff, so the market resolves on the certified winner of the seat. Prices reflect traders' estimate of the chance of winning, not vote share, and a narrow poll lead can sit alongside a favorite who is not safe. Traders should confirm the exact resolution rules on the market page.

Public polls, newest first. Bases differ, so compare like with like.

Poll	Fieldwork	Base	Maria Elvira Salazar	Eliott Rodriguez
RedBox Research	Oct. 20-23	All respondents	49%	46%

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Nov. 2, 2026: Salazar's FL-27 Chances Slip to 58% Despite Trump Nod and Poll Lead

Salazar vs. Rodriguez in FL-27: What the Polls and the Market Say

Salazar's FL-27 win probability fell from 65% to 58% in three days despite Trump's Oct. 30 endorsement, as of Nov. 2 in the FL-27 House winner? market. The latest public poll, a RedBox Research survey conducted Oct. 20-23, put Republican Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar at 49% to Democrat Eliott Rodriguez's 46%, according to LevántateCuba. Salazar is seeking a fourth term on Nov. 3 against Rodriguez, a former CBS Miami anchor of 25 years.

Donald Trump gave Salazar his "complete and total endorsement" for reelection in a Truth Social post at 6:19 p.m. Eastern on Oct. 30, CubaFull reported. The endorsement followed weeks of public conflict. Salazar's Sept. 17 ad criticized the administration's deportation policy, and Trump amplified posts calling for her replacement on the ballot.

Traders moved the other way. Salazar's implied probability fell to its lowest price in the period. Kalshi priced her at 58% and Polymarket at 57%. The market keeps her as the favorite while pricing a closer contest than a presidential endorsement and a poll lead alone would suggest.

Are There Polls for Maria Elvira Salazar (R) in FL-27?

Public polling is sparse. Beyond RedBox, an August survey commissioned by Rodriguez's campaign showed a 45%-45% tie, and CubaFull summarized Democratic polling as giving Salazar a lead of 1 to 3 points. A Univision survey reported by AmericaTeVe found Salazar ahead by 7 points among Latino voters only, a subgroup figure rather than a districtwide result. In a district about three-quarters Hispanic, that number matters, but it does not replace a full-electorate poll.

A single 3-point lead is thin evidence. A poll measures stated voter preference on the days it was fielded. A market price is traders' estimate of the probability of winning. So a 49%-46% split does not convert to 58%. A narrow polling lead is consistent with a favorite who is not safe, and that fits the price.

Other evidence points in both directions. Salazar led on money through Oct. 14, raising $2.52 million and holding $1.68 million in cash against Rodriguez's $1.57 million raised and $622,000 on hand, per FEC filings. Rodriguez has outside help: the DCCC added him to its Red to Blue program, and House Majority PAC planned about $2 million in TV and $800,000 in digital spending. Florida Politics called this Salazar's toughest reelection test yet, and CNN listed the seat among those to watch for an early sign of a Democratic wave.

What the Salazar Endorsement and Market Move Do Not Tell Us

The RedBox poll predates the Oct. 30 endorsement, so neither the endorsement nor the poll accounts for the slide in the sources available. The endorsement also left the underlying dispute unresolved: Salazar still backs her Dignity Act (H.R. 4393), which would grant renewable legal status to some undocumented immigrants.

Race raters are a separate signal. Cook Political Report, Fox News and Sabato's Crystal Ball moved FL-27 from Likely R to Lean R. A three-day price change reflects trader sentiment, not a rater's forecast. Turnout is another input outside the price: Miami-Dade had recorded more than 300,000 early votes by Oct. 27, 22.92% of active registered voters.

Market prices do not decide the race. Contracts settle on the certified winner of the FL-27 House seat, and traders should confirm the exact resolution rules on the FL-27 House winner market page. On election night, watch the first Miami-Dade returns from Coral Gables, Pinecrest and Palmetto Bay, and whether the price moves further before polls close.

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Earlier Updates

Sept. 28, 2026: Rodriguez Polls Tied in FL-27, but Bettors Cut His Chances 10 Points

Eliott Rodriguez (D)48% → 38%▼10

Eliott Rodriguez's chances of winning Florida's 27th Congressional District sit at 38% on the FL-27 House winner? market, even though recent polling shows him deadlocked with incumbent Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar at 45% each. Polls and prediction markets are pointing in opposite directions, and the gap between them is the story.