McGuire Polls vs. Perriello: VA-05 Odds Hit 66% as Sabato Calls Toss-Up

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John McGuire (R) vs. Perriello in VA-05: Market Odds Rise to 66% While Forecasters Turn Cautious

John McGuire (R) is at 66% to win VA-05 in Polymarket's VA-05 House Election Winner market as of Nov. 2, up from 58% three days earlier. The latest public nonpartisan poll, a Washington Post-Schar School survey taken Sept. 23-28, had the Republican congressman leading Democrat Tom Perriello 51%-45%. Since then, Sabato's Crystal Ball shifted the race from Leans Republican to Toss-Up, and State Navigate projected a Perriello win by about two points. Independent Cooke Costa Harvey is also on Tuesday's ballot.

Traders moved the other way, a gain of 8 percentage points. The one news item in that window was McGuire's Oct. 30 closing stop in Albemarle County, where he pitched affordability, rural health care and housing, according to 29News. "I always run every race as if I'm 10 points behind and give it to God and see what happens on Tuesday," McGuire said.

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Are There Polls for John McGuire (R) in VA-05?

One public nonpartisan poll appears in the sourced material: the Post-Schar survey showing McGuire up 6 points. It was in the field more than a month before Election Day and before Sabato's rating change. The sourced reporting shows no newer public poll. A Perriello-aligned Expedition Strategies poll in August had McGuire ahead 47%-44%, a narrower margin, though that survey came from a campaign-allied firm.

Those numbers and the market price answer different questions. A poll measures vote preference: 51% of respondents backed McGuire. The 66% market price is traders' implied probability that McGuire wins, not a projected vote share. A 6-point polling lead and a two-in-three chance of winning are separate measurements.

Sabato's Toss-Up rating and State Navigate's output are forecasts, not polls. Sabato's rating reflects analyst judgment at the University of Virginia Center for Politics. State Navigate is a projection model, and its Oct. 29 forecast gave Perriello a margin of about two points, CBS19 News reported. Cook Political Report still rates the seat Likely Republican.

That produces the split. The September poll, the Cook rating and the market favor McGuire. The two most recent forecasts do not.

Resolved Nov 6, 2026

VA-05 House Election Winner

This market settled on November 6, 2026, so nothing below is tradeable. These are the last prices each venue published before settlement, not live quotes.

Compare every venueClosing prices, not an entry point

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Why the VA-05 Market and the Forecasters Disagree

The market gained 8 percentage points during the same days the newest forecasts leaned toward Perriello. Traders may be weighting the Post-Schar lead and the district's Republican history, or reacting to McGuire's closing campaign stops.

The case against the market's confidence comes from the sourced reporting. Perriello entered October with a 2-to-1 cash advantage. Early voting rose most in Democratic areas such as Charlottesville. Both the DCCC and the NRCC bought TV time in the district on Oct. 27, a sign that both parties' committees considered the seat in play. Perriello held this seat from 2009 to 2011, and McGuire is seeking a second term after defeating Bob Good in the 2024 primary, WSLS noted. On McGuire's side, Gov. Youngkin held rallies with him, and Trump rallied for him by phone in September.

Polls and forecaster ratings do not settle the contract. Readers should check the market's resolution rules, which govern how the VA-05 House race winner market pays out after the Nov. 3 vote.

Two things remain to watch: any late public poll that updates the September 6-point lead, and the returns from the district's 304 precincts on Tuesday night.