Gas Above $4.25 on Election Day? Kalshi Odds Rise to 58%

Kalshi traders put the chance that gas prices finish above $4.25 on Election Day at 58% on Oct. 13. The AAA national average stood at $4.34 per gallon that day, according to Newsweek. That leaves the average about 9 cents above the threshold with three weeks until the Nov. 3 settlement. Oil remained elevated after Houthi strikes on Riyadh's airport, with GasBuddy's Oct. 12 report showing WTI near $93.62 and Brent near $106.62.

Live market odds

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US gas prices on Election Day

Each outcome's chance, from what traders are paying right now on Kalshi.

Above 4.25In this story

47%

Kalshi2.00x50¢

Above 4.00

97%

Kalshi1.03x97¢

Above 4.50

2%

Kalshi33.33x3¢

Above 4.75

2%

Kalshi50.00x2¢

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Gas Prices Above $4.25 on Election Day: Kalshi Chance Jumps to 58%

The Above 4.25 contract traded at 58% on Oct. 13, up from 40% three days earlier. That is a gain of 18 percentage points, and the period low of 40% marks the start of the move.

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The repricing closes a gap that CNBC identified on Oct. 8. That day, Kalshi gave a 42% chance of the average exceeding $4.25 on Election Day, while AAA already showed $4.36. Traders were pricing in a decline that had not arrived. Five days later the average remained above the line, and the contract moved toward that reality.

The apparent rebound needs a caveat. GasBuddy put the national average at $4.29 on Oct. 12, down 0.4 cents for the week. Newsweek's $4.34 figure for Oct. 13 cites AAA. The two numbers come from different trackers, so the 5-cent difference is a cross-source comparison rather than a confirmed one-day jump. GasBuddy's Patrick De Haan said Oct. 13 would tie the 2022 record of 157 days in a year with the national average above $4, per Newsweek, with a new record expected the next day.

The Riyadh airport strikes and elevated crude coincided with the contract's climb. No source attributes the market move to the strikes.

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What Could Confirm or Reverse the Above 4.25 Contract Before Nov. 3

The contract settles on the AAA national average regular gas price on Nov. 3, and that price must be strictly greater than $4.25. The $4.34 reading on Oct. 13 is a snapshot, not the settlement value. The roughly 9-cent cushion is the number to watch.

Evidence that would reverse the move:

• A sustained pullback in WTI from about $93.62 or in Brent from about $106.62.
• Daily AAA readings drifting toward $4.25 in late October, repeating the softening GasBuddy recorded in the week to Oct. 12.

Evidence that would confirm it:

• Continued strength in crude after the Riyadh airport strikes.
• Further disruption to Gulf supply.

Policy is unlikely to change the picture quickly. GasBuddy reports that analysts doubt the Trump administration's proposed diesel deal will bring much relief. Refinery updates after Hurricane Isaias were still pending as of GasBuddy's report.

We could not establish how much of the 18-percentage-point move came from the pump-price data and how much came from the oil headlines. Live pricing across all thresholds is on the US gas prices on Election Day market page.