Iotova's Runoff Odds Fall to 70% After Exit Poll Shows 3-Point Lead

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Iliana Iotova's Chances of Beating Andrey Gyurov in the Bulgaria Presidential Runoff

Iliana Iotova's chances of winning the Bulgaria presidential election fell to 70% on Polymarket on Oct. 25, after first-round exit-poll data reported by Dnevnik.bg put the incumbent at 35.3% and Andrey Gyurov, the former caretaker prime minister, at 32.4%. The runoff is on 1 November. These are exit-poll figures, not official results.

Polymarket traders repriced quickly. Iotova's implied probability of winning the presidency fell from 88% to 70% on Oct. 25, a drop of 18 percentage points over three days and the lowest price in that window. The 70% figure is a market-implied probability of winning, not a forecast of her vote share.

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Are There Polls for the Bulgaria Presidential Election? How They Compare With the Odds

Public polling exists, and it pointed to a much wider race. Final pre-election surveys from Gallup, Trend and Myara showed Iotova, running with vice-presidential candidate Kiril Valchev, ahead of Gyurov and Georgi Kandev by 14 to 18 points. Trend's final poll had Iotova at 45.9% and Gyurov at 27.8%, an 18.1-point gap.

The first-round exit-poll data cut that gap to about 3 points. Iotova's share came in more than 10 points below Trend's figure, while Gyurov's ran nearly 5 points above it. Vazrazhdane's Kostadin Kostadinov placed third at about 12.6%, in a field that included a record 27 candidate pairs.

These three measures answer different questions. A poll records stated vote intention before election day. An exit poll samples voters as they leave the booth. Market odds reflect traders' estimate of who wins the runoff. At 88%, the market matched the double-digit polling lead. At 70%, it still makes Iotova the favorite but prices a real chance that Gyurov overtakes her head to head. We could not establish from the sources why the polls missed.

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Where Iotova's Odds Stand Before the 1 November Runoff

Live market odds

Bulgaria Presidential Election

Each outcome's chance, from what traders are paying right now on .

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The 70% price recorded on Oct. 25 will move as new information arrives. The first test comes by 28 October, when final certified first-round results are due. Those official numbers may differ from Dnevnik.bg's exit-poll figures, and the gap between the two finalists could widen or narrow.

Turnout adds uncertainty to any reading of the first round. The Central Election Commission reported turnout of 16.04% as of 4 p.m., compared with 24.12% at the same point in the 2021 presidential vote, a gap of about 8 points, according to BTA. BNR Radio Bulgaria also tracked the low figure in its coverage.

The market resolves on the election outcome, with a listed resolution date of 30 November 2026. Readers should check the contract's own rules for settlement criteria. Live prices for every outcome are on the Bulgaria presidential election odds page.