Mealer vs Gutierrez TX-9 Polls: DCCC Survey Shows a One-Point Race

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Mealer vs. Gutierrez in TX-09: A DCCC Poll Shows a One-Point Race and Mealer Slips to 76%

Alex Mealer's win probability in Polymarket's TX-09 House Election Winner market fell from 84% to 76% after a DCCC poll showed her leading Democrat Leticia Gutierrez just 48% to 47%. The DCCC Targeting Team, the House Democrats' campaign committee, fielded the survey Oct. 20-22 among 490 likely voters, according to pollresults.org. The prior public poll, from the University of Houston Hobby School (Oct. 3-7, 677 likely voters), had Mealer ahead 48-42.

Mealer settled at 76% on Oct. 25, the lowest price of the period. Call the Map added the poll to its database on Oct. 24, and its poll average still has Mealer ahead by R+4.2.

Resolved Nov 4, 2026

TX-09 House Election Winner

This market settled on November 4, 2026, so nothing below is tradeable. These are the last prices each venue published before settlement, not live quotes.

Compare every venueClosing prices, not an entry point

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Why the Mealer Drop Looks Like a Single-Poll Reaction

The one-point result comes from a party sponsor. Committees choose which internal numbers to publish, so a released DCCC poll is more likely to be favorable to Democrats. Its sample of 490 is also small enough that a 48-47 split leaves neither candidate with a statistically clear lead.

The forecasters adjusted for both points. Call the Map's three-poll average runs from R+1.0 to R+6.0. Its model moves a party-sponsored poll's margin 2 points against the sponsor, which lifts the average it reads to R+5.4. That leaves the DCCC survey about three points more Democratic than the unadjusted average. The 535 forecast also declined to react, publishing a dispatch titled "A tied TX-9 poll leaves our forecast for Gutierrez where it was".

The September PPP poll, another Democratic-sponsored survey, had Mealer up 45-39 among registered voters. That makes the DCCC release the only public poll inside two points. We could not establish why traders sold, so the poll is the likely but unconfirmed trigger.

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What Could Move the Mealer TX-09 Market Next

No further public TX-9 poll has been identified after the DCCC release. Early voting began Oct. 19, and Election Day is Nov. 3. The market resolves Nov. 4.

A nonpartisan poll near one point, or a model shift toward Gutierrez, would point the same direction as the DCCC survey. A survey in line with the R+4.2 average, closer to the Hobby School's six-point margin, would be more consistent with the nonpartisan polling picture. Live prices are on the TX-09 House Election Winner odds page.

Mealer traded at 76% on Oct. 25, down about 8 percentage points in three days.