Traders give Iliana Yotova about a 86.5% chance. Iliana Iotova follows at 82.0%, Yanaki Stoilov follows at 2.0%, and Blagomir Kotsev follows at 1.4%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 3.9 percentage points.
Traders give Iliana Yotova about a 86.5% chance. Iliana Iotova follows at 82.0%, Yanaki Stoilov follows at 2.0%, and Blagomir Kotsev follows at 1.4%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 3.9 percentage points.
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the Bulgaria Presidential Election set for November 30, 2026. This election is crucial as it will determine the country's leadership and influence its domestic and foreign policies in a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape.
Iliana Yotova is the current President of Bulgaria, having assumed office on January 23, 2026, following the resignation of President Rumen Radev. Prior to this, she served as Vice President from 2017 to 2026 and was a Member of the European Parliament from 2007 to 2017. Her extensive political experience and leadership roles make her a significant figure in Bulgaria's presidential election.
About Iliana Iotova
Iliana Iotova is the current President of Bulgaria, having assumed office on January 23, 2026, following the resignation of President Rumen Radev. Prior to this, she served as Vice President from 2017 to 2026 and as a Member of the European Parliament from 2007 to 2017. Her extensive political experience and leadership roles make her a significant figure in Bulgaria's presidential election.
About Yanaki Stoilov
Yanaki Stoilov is a Bulgarian politician and former Minister of Justice. He served as Minister of Justice from 2013 to 2014. He is a candidate in the upcoming Bulgarian presidential election.
About Blagomir Kotsev
Blagomir Kotsev is the current Mayor of Varna, Bulgaria, elected in November 2023. Prior to this, he served as the regional governor of Varna. His candidacy in the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election is notable due to his recent political prominence and leadership experience.
About Nikolai Denkov
Nikolai Denkov is a Bulgarian politician and scientist, currently serving as a Member of the National Assembly since April 2024. He was Prime Minister of Bulgaria from June 2023 to April 2024, leading a coalition government. Denkov's candidacy in the upcoming presidential election is significant due to his recent tenure as Prime Minister and his prominent role in Bulgarian politics.
About Atanas Atanasov
Atanas Atanasov is a Bulgarian politician and activist, currently serving as a Member of the Haskovo City Council since November 2023. He previously held the position of Minister of Culture from December 2021 to August 2022 in the Petkov Government. His experience in government and local politics makes him a relevant candidate in the Bulgaria Presidential Election.
About Krum Zarkov
Krum Zarkov is the leader of the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP), elected on February 7, 2026. He served as Minister of Justice from August 2022 to June 2023. His leadership is pivotal for BSP's strategy in the upcoming presidential election.
About Vasil Terziev
Vasil Terziev is the current Mayor of Sofia, Bulgaria, having assumed office on November 13, 2023. Before his political career, he co-founded Telerik, a leading software company, and served as a managing partner at Eleven Ventures, an early-stage venture capital fund. His entrepreneurial background and leadership in the tech industry make him a significant figure in Bulgaria's political landscape.
About Rosen Zhelyazkov
Rosen Zhelyazkov is a Bulgarian politician who served as Prime Minister from January 16, 2025, to February 19, 2026. Prior to this, he was Minister of Transport from 2018 to 2021 and Speaker of the National Assembly from 2023 to 2024. His tenure as Prime Minister was marked by significant public protests leading to his resignation.
About Boyko Borissov
Boyko Borissov is the leader of the GERB party and a Member of the National Assembly. He served as Prime Minister of Bulgaria from 2009 to 2013, 2014 to 2017, and 2017 to 2021. His extensive political experience and leadership of GERB make him a significant figure in Bulgaria's political landscape.
About Rosen Plevneliev
Rosen Plevneliev is the former President of Bulgaria, serving from 2012 to 2017. Before his presidency, he was Minister of Regional Development and Public Works from 2009 to 2011. He is relevant to the Bulgaria Presidential Election prediction market due to his previous presidential tenure and ongoing political influence.
About Vassil Terziev
Vassil Terziev is the current Mayor of Sofia, elected on November 7, 2023. He co-founded and served as CEO of Telerik, a leading software company, from 2002 to 2014. His entrepreneurial background and recent election as Sofia's mayor make him a key figure in Bulgaria's political landscape.
Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases
Market Rulebook: Bulgaria Presidential Election
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Kalshi
Primary Rule
If Blagomir Kotsev wins the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Edge Cases
For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins. If two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No. If both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No. For coalitions/alliances, only those formally registered with electoral authorities before the nomination deadline count, not post-election governing arrangements. For referenda/plebiscites, the specified option achieves the required threshold per applicable law (simple majority, supermajority, dual majority, turnout requirements). If multiple thresholds exist (e.g., majority of votes AND majority of states), all must be met. For presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system (electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable) and either (i) is inaugurated/sworn in/takes office, or (ii) the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office is the winner.
The market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority. Contested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction. In cases of competing claims (two presidents, disputed succession), the individual recognized by the hierarchical majority of Source Agencies prevails. The market remains open until the rescheduled election or two years from the original date, whichever comes first. Repeated postponements count towards the 2-year deadline. If results are annulled by a court/authority AFTER announcement but BEFORE the winner takes office, the Contract remains open until re-run election or expiration.
Presidential elections in Bulgaria are expected to be held in the Fall of 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next presidential election in Bulgaria.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC) (www.cik.bg/).
Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the significance of the Bulgaria Presidential Election?
The election will shape Bulgaria's political direction and impact its relations within the European Union and neighboring countries. Leadership choices can influence economic policies and social reforms.
How do prediction markets reflect public sentiment for this election?
Prediction markets aggregate bets on various candidates, reflecting the collective expectations of investors regarding their chances of winning. Shifts in odds can indicate changing public sentiment and political dynamics leading up to the election.
What factors could influence the outcome of the election?
Key factors include economic conditions, public opinion on government performance, and the candidates' campaign strategies. Additionally, external events such as international relations and domestic protests may sway voter preferences.
What does the Bulgaria Presidential Election prediction market track?
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
What are the latest Bulgaria Presidential Election odds?
The latest available prices are Iliana Yotova: 86.5¢ on Kalshi; Iliana Iotova: 82.0¢ on Polymarket; Yanaki Stoilov: 4.0¢ on Kalshi, 0.1¢ on Polymarket; Blagomir Kotsev: 2.7¢ on Kalshi, 0.1¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.
