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Live prediction market odds for Minnesota Senate winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket and PredictIt.

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

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Minnesota Senate winner?

2026-11-03

Best price · tap to trade

Peggy Flanagan (D)90¢1.11xKalshiMichele Tafoya (R)11¢9.09xKalshi

About This Market

Traders give Peggy Flanagan (D) about a 90.5% chance. Michele Tafoya (R) follows at 9.8%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket, and PredictIt. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.5 percentage points.

Traders give Peggy Flanagan (D) about a 90.5% chance. Michele Tafoya (R) follows at 9.8%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket, and PredictIt. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.5 percentage points.

Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt are tracking the Minnesota Senate winner for the upcoming election on November 3, 2026. This race is pivotal as it could influence the balance of power in the Senate and shape legislative priorities for years to come.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
PolymarketPolymarket
PredictItPredictIt
Best price
PF
Peggy Flanagan (D)
91%
Kalshi90¢
Polymarket92¢
PredictIt92¢
Kalshi1.11x90¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
90.0%89¢90¢10¢11¢
PolymarketPolymarket
91.0%91¢92¢8¢9¢
PredictItPredictIt
92.0%89¢92¢8¢11¢
MT
Michele Tafoya (R)ARB
10%
Kalshi11¢
Polymarket9¢
PredictIt13¢
Kalshi9.09x11¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
11.0%10¢11¢89¢90¢
PolymarketPolymarket
8.5%8¢9¢91¢92¢
PredictItPredictIt
11.0%11¢13¢87¢89¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarketPolymarketPredictItPredictIt

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Peggy Flanagan (D)

Peggy Flanagan is the current Lieutenant Governor of Minnesota, serving since 2019. She previously represented District 46A in the Minnesota House of Representatives from 2015 to 2019. Flanagan is a member of the White Earth Band of Ojibwe and has been a prominent advocate for Indigenous communities and progressive policies in Minnesota.

About Michele Tafoya (R)

Michele Tafoya is a Republican candidate for Minnesota's U.S. Senate seat. She previously served as a sideline reporter for NBC's Sunday Night Football from 2011 to 2022. Tafoya's extensive experience in high-pressure environments and her leadership insights make her a notable contender in the Senate race.

Smart Trade Router

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread2.5%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Peggy Flanagan (D)

90.5% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: Minnesota Senate winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Minnesota for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the Minnesota Senate race?

Polling data, candidate endorsements, and campaign funding play crucial roles in shaping the odds. Additionally, national political trends and voter turnout predictions can significantly impact market movements.

How do prediction markets work for elections?

Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of election outcomes. Prices reflect the collective beliefs of market participants about the likelihood of various candidates winning.

What is at stake in the Minnesota Senate race?

Control of the Senate is at stake, which can affect the passage of legislation on key issues. The outcome may also influence the political landscape heading into future elections.

What does the Minnesota Senate winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest Minnesota Senate winner odds?

The latest available prices are Peggy Flanagan (D): 90.0¢ on Kalshi, 91.0¢ on Polymarket, 92.0¢ on PredictIt; Michele Tafoya (R): 11.0¢ on Kalshi, 8.5¢ on Polymarket, 11.0¢ on PredictIt. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Final odds

Prediction Market Track Record

Minnesota Democratic Senate Primary WinnerWONPre-event: 85%

Prediction Market Track Record

Minnesota Republican Senate Primary WinnerWONPre-event: 96%Minnesota Republican Senate nominee?WONPre-event: 96%

Historical Track Record

Scroll to view past markets

Minnesota Democratic Senate Primary Winner

Resolved

2026-08-11

WONPeggy Flanagan (D)
Pre-event: 85%

Minnesota Republican Senate Primary Winner

Resolved

2026-08-11

WONMichele Tafoya (R)
Pre-event: 96%

Minnesota Republican Senate nominee?

Resolved

2026-08-11

WONMichele Tafoya (R)
Pre-event: 96%