Olivia Chow Favored for Toronto Mayor After Late Polls Flip

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Olivia Chow's Chances of Winning the Toronto Mayor Race Are About 72%

Prediction markets give Olivia Chow about a 72% chance of winning Toronto's Oct. 26, 2026 mayoral election, per the Toronto mayoral election winner market. Kalshi priced her at 72% and Polymarket at 73% on Oct. 26, up from 52% three days earlier. Final polls flipped her way. Five days ago, Liaison Strategies had councillor Brad Bradford ahead 49% to 47%. Liaison's last survey has Chow up 52% to 44%, and Pollara's final poll shows her leading 48% to 40%.

Between the polls, Odessa Paloma Parker left the race on Oct. 21 and endorsed Chow, saying concern over a Bradford win drove her exit. The Globe and Mail still reports that recent surveys show a race too close to call.

Resolved Oct 28, 2026

Who will win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?

This market settled on October 28, 2026, so nothing below is tradeable. These are the last prices each venue published before settlement, not live quotes.

Compare every venueClosing prices, not an entry point

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Are There Polls for Olivia Chow in the Toronto Mayor Race?

Yes. Several named pollsters released surveys in the campaign's final week:

• Liaison Strategies, Oct. 21: Bradford 49%, Chow 47%. Liaison called this a statistical dead heat.
• Nanos, same period: Chow 50%, Bradford 47%.
• Liaison Strategies, Oct. 24-25 (750 respondents): Chow 52%, Bradford 44%, according to Liaison's release. The margin moved roughly 10 points, from Bradford +2 to Chow +8.
• Pollara, final poll among likely voters: Chow 48%, Bradford 40%. CUPE Local 416 commissioned the poll, and the union endorsed Chow on Oct. 1.

These numbers measure different things. A poll estimates vote share. The 72% market figure is a trader-implied probability that Chow wins, not her expected share of the vote. An 8-point polling lead can sit alongside a 72% win probability because polls carry sampling error and turnout uncertainty, and traders price that risk. None of the sources cited here provides a statistical forecast model for this race.

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What Could Still Change the Toronto Mayoral Result

Liaison pollster David Valentin told the Globe that turnout decides the race, especially downtown. Voters in the city's centre have turned out more reliably in recent years and lean toward Chow. Liaison's regional numbers show Chow leading Downtown and Scarborough, with Bradford ahead in Etobicoke and North York.

The other variable is field operations. Valentin framed the race as Bradford's door-knockers against the traditionally strong get-out-the-vote operation of the NDP-backed Chow. "Does he have the machine? Does he have the people power to get this done?" he said.

The polls have also moved fast. Bradford led in Liaison's own survey less than a week before election day. Parker's endorsement may carry less weight than it appears, because some votes for her were already cast in advance polls. We could not establish whether the endorsement or the polls moved the market more.

If Bradford wins, Chow would become the first incumbent Toronto mayor to lose since amalgamation in 1998.

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How the Toronto Mayoral Election Market Settles

Polls open 10 a.m. to 8 p.m. on Monday, Oct. 26. Polymarket's contract pays on who becomes mayor as a result of this vote, and an interim mayor does not count. Editor: verify exact resolution wording on both the Kalshi and Polymarket pages before publishing.

Readers searching for Toronto mayoral election results on Oct. 26 should use the City of Toronto's official count. A market price is not a result.