Market News & Analysis
Auto-generated, data-driven articles on significant prediction market moves and cross-platform arbitrage opportunities. 1,333 published · page 3 of 14.
Gillingham Falls to 46% as Winnipeg Mayoral Field Reaches 13
Incumbent's probability fell 9 points in three days; two new candidates entered in one week, including the race's first female contender.
Pat Murphy at 72% to Win NL Manager of the Year Three Straight Times
Murphy jumped 14 points in three days as voters weigh MLB's best record, dual surgeries, and his own admission the Brewers haven't fully gelled.
Democrats Hit 59% for 2026 Senate as Crypto Bill Fails and FBI Hearing
Three Republican stumbles in 72 hours pushed Democratic Senate odds up 8 points. Schumer's PAC has now committed $30M to Michigan alone.
Chiefs' AFC West Odds Jump to 54% After Walker III's 190-Yard Debut
Kansas City rose from 35% to 54% on Kalshi and Polymarket in three days, with Mahomes managing 184 passing yards in his first game back from a knee injury.
Merz Campaigns in Berlin as CDU Odds Jump 8 Points to 29%
CDU trails the Left Party in every recent poll despite the market move. Voting is September 20 and five parties sit within a tight range.
Democrats' SC House Odds Drop 10 Points Despite Full Slate
Prediction markets cut Democrats' chances of winning at least one SC House seat from 74% to 64% in three days, even as the party fields candidates in all seven districts.
Cook Downgrades IA-02 to Lean R, Cutting GOP Odds 11 Points
Republican odds in IA-02 dropped from 48% to 38% in three days after Cook moved the seat from Likely R to Lean R. Democrat Lindsay James is now priced above 50%.
Nashville SC MLS Cup Odds Fall to 16% Despite Historic 22-Game Start
Markets priced playoff format risk over regular-season form, cutting Nashville from 24% to 16% in three days with no injury or roster news as catalyst.
Once Upon a Time in Harlem Climbs to 22% as Rival Docs Hit Turbulence
The Sundance doc recovered 8 points from a Sept. 9 trough of 14%, with no new catalyst of its own, as NAZA controversy and new TIFF entrants fragmented the field.
PSG Hit 82% for Ligue 1 Title Despite Two Points From Three Matches
A 6-1 Champions League rout of Slovan Bratislava, anchored by a Ferran Torres hat-trick, pushed PSG's title probability up 8 points in three days.
Data Center Debate Cuts Masterson's Kansas Governor Lead by 9 Points
Republican odds fell from 68% to 59% in three days after the State Fair debate. Masterson won his primary with just 43% despite a Trump endorsement.
CLF Attack Ad on Mendoza Pushes Democratic AZ-06 Odds to 86%
The GOP super PAC's named ad buy signals internal alarm; Mendoza also leads the only public poll 47%-45%.
Trump Said No to Somaliland: Recognition Odds Fall to 10%
Markets cut Somaliland recognition odds in half in three days after Trump's public rejection and a State Dept. report reaffirming Somalia's territorial integrity.
Ravens Hit 52% AFC North Odds After Minter's Debut Blowout
Baltimore jumped 8 points in three days following a 41-23 Week 1 win over Indianapolis, its first game under new head coach Jesse Minter.
Green Bay's Playoff Chances Drop 13 Points in 3 Days as Models Show 16%
Prediction markets price Green Bay at 40% to make the playoffs, but statistical models show 16% after the Packers' 0-1 start, a 24-point gap.
Clarity Act Got 49 Votes. Why Would It Ever Get 55?
Only 49 senators backed the Clarity Act procedurally, short of even a simple majority. The 'Above 55' outcome has fallen from 50% to 10%.
Van Enters Pantoja Rematch at UFC 331 as 58% Favorite to Keep Flyweight
Van jumped 8 points in 3 days after defending against Taira, but a healthy Pantoja on Saturday is the sharpest repricing risk of 2026.
Cowboys' NFC East Odds Fall to 22% After Jaxson Dart's Three-TD Debut
Dallas lost 28-20 to a rookie QB in Week 1. Bettors cut their division title probability 14 points in three days, with contracts briefly hitting 18%.
Packers NFC North Odds Drop to 16% After 39-22 Loss, Jacobs Suspended
Green Bay fell from 25% to 16% on Kalshi and Polymarket after a Week 1 blowout, with Josh Jacobs on the exempt list and Micah Parsons out with an ACL tear.
Callum Turner Hits 28% for James Bond as Lowden Buzz Fails to Move
Turner gained 8 points in three days while Jack Lowden's Slow Horses co-stars publicly hinted he had the role. Kalshi has Turner at 33%, Polymarket at 24%.
Jaguars Reach 40% AFC South Odds as All Three Rivals Drop Week 1
Jacksonville's 34-10 rout of Cleveland pushed division title odds from 28% to 40% while Houston, Tennessee, and Indianapolis all opened 0-1.
Likud Rises 8 Points as Netanyahu October 7 Warning Scandal Backfires
Prediction markets price Likud at 42% for the October 27 Israeli election, up from 34% in three days, as the Haaretz foreknowledge report appears to consolidate the right-wing base.
The Debut Leads Best Original Screenplay After Digger's Genre-Confusion
Digger shed 10 points in three days on genre-confusion concerns, handing The Debut a borrowed lead at 28% with no precursor wins backing it.
Perry's PA-10 Odds Fall 13 Points in 3 Days as Stelson Rematch Tightens
Bettors now price Republicans at 18% in PA-10, down from 30% in three days. Perry won the district by roughly 5,000 votes in 2024 with Trump on the ballot.
CAQ Drops to 14% in 2026 Quebec Race as Francophone Gap Holds
Markets cut CAQ from 23% to 14% in three days. Fréchette ties Plamondon in best-premier polls, but PQ leads by 9 points among francophone voters.
Green Party Removal Fails to Lift PA-07 GOP Odds, Now at 20%
Republican odds in PA-07 fell 9 points in three days after a court removed the Green Party candidate, as bettors priced consolidation of anti-incumbent votes.
Will Lawrence's MI-07 Odds Recover to 63% After Post-Primary Selloff
Democratic implied probability rebounded 11 points in three days after bottoming at 52% following Lawrence's progressive primary win over Bridget Brink and Matt Maasdam.
Markets Fade ESPN's Roberts Pick, Push Pat Murphy to 64% for NL Manager
Murphy gained 9 points in three days after ESPN named Roberts the winner. Buck Showalter's Mets resignation removed a further vote-splitter from the race.
Aspinall Vacates UFC Heavyweight Title After Eye Injury
Aspinall's 2026 title odds fell 55 points to 3% in 72 hours after he confirmed his eye injury blocks medical clearance. Ciryl Gane is next in line.
Chiefs AFC West Odds Hit 51% After Walker's 190-Yard Debut
Kenneth Walker III rushed for 190+ yards and two scores in his Kansas City debut, vaulting the Chiefs from 34% to 51% in the AFC West market.
Buckhout Falls to 36% in NC-01 Despite a 55% Trump District
Republican chances in NC-01 dropped 13 points in three days. A 38.7% primary win and a $1.8M cash deficit may explain the selloff.
Yamal Hits 26% for Ballon d'Or After World Cup Medal and Public Mbappé
Endorsements from his agent, Barcelona's captain, and Yamal himself pushed him from 18% to 26% in three days. He is also the first player nominated three times before 20.
Cam Schlittler Leads Every AL Cy Young Category at 96%
Schlittler leads the AL in ERA, WHIP, strikeouts, and WAR. His probability climbed 8 percentage points in three days with no single catalyst.
Ravens Super Bowl 2027 Volume Surges 12x After 41-23 Rout of Colts
$331,737 traded on the Ravens' NFL Champion 2027 contract Sept. 13, nearly 12x the prior week's daily average. Baltimore now sits fourth in the market at 8%.
GQR Poll Shows Fitzpatrick-Harvie at 49-48 as Markets Hold 60%
The only public PA-01 poll shows a one-point race despite Fitzpatrick's 12-point win in 2024. Harvie has raised $1.46M, signaling a real challenge.
Nashville SC's Historic 22-Game Start Pushes MLS Cup Odds to 26%
A 10-point probability jump in three days follows the best 22-match start in MLS history and a 9-point Eastern Conference lead over Inter Miami.
Cardi B and Stefon Diggs Engagement Odds Fall to 9% After Market Ignores
Markets held at 22% for seven months despite Cardi B's on-stage split announcement. A three-day correction finally caught up with public record.
Packers Fall to 46% Playoff Odds After 17-Point Loss to Vikings
Green Bay lost 39-22 in Week 1 with Josh Jacobs on the exempt list and Micah Parsons out until mid-October. Markets dropped 8 points in three days.
Shah Primary Upset Cuts Republican Odds in AZ-01 from 28% to 16%
Amish Shah beat the DCCC-backed candidate on July 21, prompting markets to reprice the race. Polymarket and PredictIt now both sit near 16% for Republicans.
Clarity Act 60-Vote Odds Double to 52% as Media Calls Vote Dead
The 'Above 60' outcome jumped from 23% to 52% in three days. Polymarket prices it at 63%; Kalshi sits at 40%.
Cowboys' NFC East Odds Fall to 28% After Week 1 Loss to Giants
Dallas drops 8 percentage points in three days after opening 2026 with a 20-28 defeat to New York, its second straight year missing the playoffs.
Pillen Hits 94% in Nebraska Governor Market After Primary Win
Pillen cleared five GOP rivals on Sep 12; markets jumped 16 points in three days. Kalshi prices him at 92%, PredictIt at 97%.
Bears' NFC North Probability Hits 32% After 59-37 Rout of Panthers
Chicago climbed from 22% to 32% in three days on Kalshi and Polymarket, but allowed 37 points to a bottom-five Carolina offense.
Begich Exits Alaska Governor Race, Republican Sweep Odds Jump 11 Points
Reps sweep hits 28% on Kalshi after Tom Begich's Aug. 31 withdrawal hands Democrats a less-tested nominee in Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins.
Jaguars' AFC South Odds Rise 9 Points After 34-10 Week 1 Rout
Jacksonville climbed from 27% to 36% on Kalshi and Polymarket in three days, the first repricing of the division race since futures opened.
Steelers' AFC North Odds Jump to 22% After McCarthy's Week 1 Win
Pittsburgh climbed from 14% to 22% in three days on Kalshi and Polymarket, now trading above its own +525 preseason sportsbook line.
Lawler Leads NY-17 by 5 Points, but Markets Price It a Toss-Up
Democratic odds in NY-17 fell 13 percentage points in three days to 51%, even as Lawler holds a 5-point polling lead and a 15-point edge among independents.
Somaliland Recognition Sits at 20% After Congressional Source Says
Traders pushed Before 2027 odds up 8 points in three days despite an on-record government signal against it, with December 31 as the resolution deadline.
Perry Falls to 18% in PA-10 as Stelson Rematch Takes Shape
Republican odds fell 9 points in three days. Kalshi prices the GOP at 25%; PredictIt sits at 10%, with Stelson's prior campaign infrastructure cited as a factor.
Merab's Title Odds Drop to 28% Ahead of UFC 333 Yan Rematch
Back-to-back losses pushed Merab to 28%, down 9 points in 3 days. Umar Nurmagomedov's looming title shot adds a second path that bypasses him entirely.
Bohannan Leads IA-01 by 5 Points as Miller-Meeks Odds Fall to 26%
Forecasters now give Bohannan a 69-70% chance of flipping IA-01. Republican prediction market contracts dropped 9 points in three days.
Sal Stewart's RBI Title Odds Drop 10 Points Despite League Lead
Stewart holds 107 RBIs with 17 games left, but his Pro Baseball RBIs Leader probability fell from 65% to 55% in three days, with Kalshi and Polymarket diverging.
Trump's Oil Deal Pushes Rodríguez's Venezuela Odds to 94%
A 65-billion-barrel energy agreement with Washington drove a 9-point surge in three days, with Kalshi at 95% and Polymarket at 93%.
Republican Odds in PA-07 Jump 9 Points in 72 Hours
GOP probability rises from 21% to 30% on Kalshi and Polymarket, with no Democratic nominee consolidated and the primary still unresolved.
Rams' NFC West Odds Fall 19 Points After 27-7 Loss to 49ers
LA dropped from 54% to 34% on prediction markets after a blowout in Melbourne exposed the defense Myles Garrett was supposed to anchor.
Digger's Best Original Screenplay Odds Fall From 16% to 6% in Three Days
Genre confusion sparked by a new trailer has eroded Digger's screenplay odds by 10 points, with Kalshi at 8% and Polymarket at 4%.
CAQ Win Probability Falls 12 Points as Bettors Reject Fréchette Bounce
Prediction markets cut CAQ from 35% to 23% in three days. The party trails PQ by nine points among francophone voters, the bloc that decides Quebec elections.
TX-22 Was Never a Toss-Up: Republican Price Corrects 42 Points to 92%
A district with R+22.5 partisan lean was briefly priced at coin-flip odds. Forecasters at 97-in-100 never moved. The market has since closed most of that gap.
Toluca's Apertura Title Odds Hit 24% After Leagues Cup Win
Toluca's Liga MX Apertura title probability rose 10 points to 24% in three days, driven by their Leagues Cup final win over Monterrey and the $13.5M signing of Federico Viñas.
Linke Leads Berlin Polls, but Internal Paper Risks 68% Market Price
Polls put Linke at 21–23% vs CDU at 20–21%, pushing markets to 68%. A leaked party document questioning its governing will adds risk traders haven't priced.
Aspinall's 2026 Title Odds Hit 55% With No Fight Date Set
Aspinall's year-end title probability jumped 10 percentage points in 72 hours. Gane holds the interim belt after stopping Pereira in June.
Anna Kelly Leads the Press Secretary Race at 15%, Down 9 Points in Three
Kelly dropped from 24% to 15% in three days. Trump's silence is redistributing speculative money to outside names, not any rival's strength.
Democrats Drop NC-01 Nominee, Buckhout Hits 50% on Prediction Markets
Republican Laurie Buckhout reaches 50% implied probability in NC-01 after Democratic Party abandons its House nominee, leaving a zero-funded Libertarian as her only opponent.
Patriots' AFC East Odds Fall 11 Points After Maye's Three-Pick Collapse
New England fell from 45% to 34% in three days after Drake Maye threw three fourth-quarter picks and A.J. Brown left with an ankle injury in a 10-13 loss at Seattle.
Figures Trails 72-28 in AL-02 as Democrats' Two-Seat Odds Hit 28%
Figures outraised Marques $1.36M to $1.32M, but the redrawn AL-02 map keeps him a heavy underdog with seven weeks until November.
Rams NFC Championship Volume Jumps 4x After Week 1 Blowout Loss to 49ers
$83,279 traded on Sep 11 across 802 trades, up 4.45x from baseline. The Rams' price slipped just 1 point, to 21%.
Stranger Things Hits 22% in Google Year in Search 2026 TV Despite 23%
An 8-point probability surge in three days collides with Luminate's confirmed 23% Season 5 viewership drop, driven by an animated spinoff and MCU casting rumors.
MI-07 Poll Has Lawrence Up 2, But Markets Now Price Barrett Even
Republican odds climbed 8 percentage points in 3 days to 50%, even as the only public poll shows Lawrence ahead 49-47 in a district Barrett has held since 2022.
Colbert Swept the Creative Arts Emmys. Why Are His Variety Series Odds
The Late Show dropped 11 points to 72% after winning writing, directing, and craft awards, with SNL's entry into the merged category driving the repricing.
Pat Murphy Hits 54% to Win NL Manager of the Year Three Straight Times
Murphy gained 9 points in three days after his February contract extension, making him co-favorite for an award no NL manager has won three consecutive times.
Devers Ties Reynolds at 36 Doubles, Cutting Reynolds to 26%
Reynolds' win probability fell from 48% to 26% in three days after Devers tied him at 36 doubles. His August OPS dropped to .615, down from .736 in July.
Lula's First-Round Odds Fall to 60% as Corruption Probe Fragments Brazil
Lula polls at 39%, 11 points short of an outright win. A probe into Flávio Bolsonaro is pushing soft Bolsonaro voters toward minor candidates, not Lula.
Hatosy Hits 22% in Emmy Supporting Actor Race After Guest-to-Supporting
Prediction markets repriced Hatosy +9 points in three days. He is the only nominee in the field who already holds an Emmy for the same character.
Once Upon a Time in Harlem Oscar Odds Fall to 12% in Three Days
The former frontrunner lost nearly half its probability with no news catalyst, dropping it into a three-way tie behind American Doctor at 16%.
The Odyssey Jumps 13 Points to 62% for Best Original Score
Win probability moved from 49% to 62% in three days. Five films are now clustered within 9 points for four remaining nomination slots.
Rams' Playoff Odds Fall to 72% After 27-7 Blowout Loss to 49ers
LA's playoff probability fell 8 points in three days. The 49ers held the Rams to a single score at home, raising questions about offensive execution.
Clarity Act 'Above 58' Hits 35% as Democrats Stay Silent on Revised Text
The Sept. 10 revision cites 114 Democratic requests, yet no Democrat has endorsed the updated text ahead of the Sept. 15 cloture vote.
Lindsay James Now Favored in IA-02 Markets, but Forecasters Disagree
Prediction markets price Democrats at 55% in IA-02 for the first time. The Call the Map model still gives Joe Mitchell a 61-in-100 edge based on R+10 district lean.
Lindstrom Ballot Fraud Exit Pushed Nebraska GOP Governor Odds to 94%
Lindstrom's disqualification collapsed the field to a binary race Pillen leads by 12 points. Republican odds jumped 16 percentage points in three days.
Republicans' Alaska Sweep Odds Drop 8 Points in Three Days
The Reps sweep combo fell from 26% to 18% as Sullivan faces Peltola and a fractured GOP gubernatorial primary compounds the risk.
Nolan Casting Pushes Cruise's Best Actor Odds to 24% With No Film Shot
Cruise jumped from 15% to 24% on casting news alone. Kalshi has him at 28%; Polymarket sits at 19%, a 9-point platform split.
NY-17 Forecasters Split: Lawler Leads in One Model, Trails in Another
Call the Map gives Lawler 56-in-100 on R+0.9; Psephologix gives Conley 62% on D+2.1. Republican odds have climbed to 40%.
Tom Holland's Year in Search 2026 Odds Fall to 12% After $2
Holland dropped from 21% to 12% in three days. Bettors believe his mid-year search peak is already fading, with no Q4 catalyst yet in view.
Scott Perry's PA-10 Odds Rise 10 Points Ahead of Stelson Rematch
Republican odds in PA-10 climbed from 20% to 30% in three days with no confirmed catalyst, even as Kalshi and PredictIt disagree by 12 points.
Sal Stewart's RBI Crown Odds Jump 12 Points in Three Days
Stewart leads MLB with 107 RBIs and 17 games left. His implied probability of winning the Pro Baseball RBIs Leader market rose from 56% to 68% in 72 hours.
New Poll Cuts Ciro Gomes' Ceará Win Odds 8 Points to 58%
Real Time Big Data puts Elmano at 46% vs. Ciro at 43%, inside the margin of error. The next Datafolha release will determine whether markets compress further toward 50-50.
Turner Rises to 21% on Bond Markets as Oldman Backs Lowden
Turner climbed 9 points to 21% in 72 hours ending September 11, 2026, while Kalshi prices him at 31% and Polymarket at 11%.
Widow's Bay 8-Win Sweep Lifts Stephen Root to 53% in Emmy Comedy Race
Root leads Supporting Actor Comedy at 53%, up 10 points in 3 days. Harrison Ford trails at 45-47% as Widow's Bay dominates the early ceremony.
Rams' NFC West Probability Falls 12 Points After 27-7 Loss to 49ers
LA dropped from 49% to 37% on Kalshi and Polymarket in 72 hours, the steepest Week 1 fall for any NFC West favorite this cycle.
PA-07 Democratic Win Odds Fall 16 Points as Primary Field Fragments
Kalshi and Polymarket now price Democrats at 64-65% in PA-07, down from 80%, as Mackenzie's cash advantage compounds a four-candidate primary hangover.
Linke Hits 58% in Berlin Election Market After Cyberattack and Poll Lead
A September 9 Infratest dimap poll puts Linke at 21% vs CDU 20%, while a ransomware breach of Berlin's government dumped 1.44M files days before the September 20 vote.
Drake Maye MVP Price Holds at 8% as Volume Spikes 15x After Three-Pick
$389K flooded the NFL MVP market in one day, 15.62x the baseline. Maye's price held flat at 8%, signaling two-sided flow rather than a directional bet.
Chisholm IL Stint Hands Nuñez Steals Crown as Markets Price 86%
Nuñez's probability jumped 13 points to 86% after Chisholm hit the IL with 40 steals, six behind. Chandler Simpson, the next active threat, sits at just 8%.
Italy Palestine Recognition Falls to 10% as Rome Summit Signals Stall
Italy's recognition probability dropped 8 points in three days after hosting a two-state solution summit, touching 9% at its lowest point on Kalshi and Polymarket.
Mensah Hits 20% for 2027 #1 Pick as Bleacher Report Backs Him
Bettors doubled Mensah's price in three days, yet Manning holds a 10-point lead at 30%, backed by a clean Week 1 stat line against Texas State.
Cardi B Confirmed the Breakup. Engagement Odds Hit 22% Anyway.
Prediction markets now price a Cardi B and Stefon Diggs engagement at 22%, up from 9%, with no public sign of reconciliation seven months after the split.
Flávio Bolsonaro Hits 51% as Supreme Court Clash Rattles Lula
Prediction markets flip Lula to underdog after a judiciary standoff and emergency fuel cuts; Datafolha still shows him leading the first round by five points.
Pat Murphy Hits 52% for Historic NL Manager of the Year Three-Peat
Murphy's probability jumped 13 points in three days, fueled by Milwaukee holding MLB's best record and Murphy managing through two surgeries.
Cease Injury Drops AL Cy Young Odds to 6% as Schlittler Takes Lead
Cease fell from 22% to 6% in three days after an injury and performance decline. Schlittler holds a 2.04 ERA with five starts remaining.
Goldman Sachs Returns to 82% in OpenAI IPO Market as Senate Probe Clouds
Goldman rebounds 8 points from a 74% low in three days, matching its August peak, even as a Senate data-breach investigation threatens the roadshow schedule.