Hsinchu County Polls Split: Cheng Chao-fang Still Favored After Nov 12

---

Hsinchu County Magistrate Polls: Cheng Chao-fang and Hsu Hsin-ying Each Lead One Survey

Two Hsinchu County magistrate polls released on Nov 12, 2026 named opposite leaders. Era Poll Center put the DPP's Cheng Chao-fang ahead of the KMT's Hsu Hsin-ying, 36.9% to 28.6%, according to UDN. The Taiwan Public Policy Research Association put Hsu ahead, 44.4% to 37.5%, according to China Times. Voters choose on Nov 28. After both releases, Cheng's chance in the Hsinchu County Magistrate Election Winner market on Kalshi rose from 60% to 65% by Nov 13.

Live market odds

2 venues

Hsinchu County Magistrate Election Winner

Each outcome's chance, from what traders are paying right now on Kalshi and Polymarket.

Cheng Chao-fangIn this story

71%

PolymarketBest price1.39x72¢Kalshi1.35x74¢

Hsu Hsin-ying

27%

KalshiBest price3.45x29¢Polymarket3.45x29¢

Lin Szu-ming and Chen Chien-hsien: under 1% eachShow all

New to Kalshi? Get a $55 trading bonus

Code PRED55. New users only. Eligibility restrictions and terms apply.

Claim offer

Compare every venueCents per $1 payout, before fees

Pollster	Fieldwork	Sample	Margin of error	Cheng	Hsu	Undecided
Era Poll Center	Nov 8-10	n=1,069	±3.0 points	36.9%	28.6%	30.4%
Taiwan Public Policy Research Association	Nov 5-8	n=1,071	±2.99 points	37.5%	44.4%	14.9%

The two surveys were fielded days apart. Their margins differ by roughly 15 points. Each shows the same leader as that pollster's earlier survey. Era's Cheng lead widened from 6.4 points in September, per Liberty Times. The research association's Hsu lead stayed close to the 6.4 points that the China Association of Local Rule recorded in its Oct 25-26 poll.

---

Cheng Chao-fang's Market Price After the Polls

The 5-point gain, from 60% to 65%, came after both polls were public. The sources do not explain why the polls diverge or what drove traders.

1D7D30D

Era's own numbers limit how much its result can carry. The poll found 30.4% of respondents undecided, more than three times Cheng's 8.3-point margin. The research association recorded 14.9% undecided. Hsu's campaign cited the rival poll and urged caution. Cheng also stayed cautious, telling supporters "you must vote," Newtalk reported.

The context includes KMT friction. TaiwanInsight notes that Deputy Magistrate Chen Chien-hsien declined to endorse Hsu and that KMT-TPP cooperation collapsed in Zhubei. The outlet also reports that TPP supporters are leaning toward Cheng.

---

What Could Confirm or Reverse Cheng Chao-fang's Odds Before Nov 28

The Nov 28 vote resolves the market. Before then, any new public poll would test whether Era's undecided bloc breaks toward Cheng or whether the research association's Hsu lead holds. Live pricing sits on the Hsinchu County Magistrate Election Winner odds page.

Cheng is a favorite at 65% as of Nov 13. Two credible polls disagree, and 30.4% of Era's respondents were undecided.