Will the SNB Change Rates in December? Hold Odds Slip After CPI

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Will the SNB Change Rates on December 10? "No Change" Odds Fall to 84%

The Swiss National Bank is widely expected to hold its policy rate at 0% on December 10, 2026, where it has sat since the June 2025 cut, but the "No Change" price in the SNB December rate decision market fell to 84%. October consumer prices rose 1.5% from a year earlier, the fastest pace in nearly three years, and Chairman Martin Schlegel said the bank would not hesitate to adjust policy if price stability were at risk.

Prediction markets trimmed the hold. "No Change" fell from 92% on Nov. 9 to 84% on Nov. 12, a drop of about 8 percentage points. Kalshi priced the outcome at 86% and Polymarket at 82% on Nov. 12.

Live market odds

2 venues

Swiss National Bank rate decision in December

Each outcome's chance, from what traders are paying right now on Kalshi and Polymarket.

No ChangeIn this story

83%

PolymarketBest price1.22x82.2¢Kalshi1.18x85¢

25 bps increase

16%

KalshiBest price6.67x15¢Polymarket5.59x17.9¢

25 bps decrease

1%

PolymarketBest price1000.00x0.1¢Kalshi50.00x2¢

50+ bps increase

1%

PolymarketBest price1000.00x0.1¢Kalshi50.00x2¢

50+ bps decrease: under 1% eachShow all

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What Schlegel and October Inflation Said About an SNB Move

Fuel and heating costs drove most of the October inflation figure, as the energy shock tied to the Middle East conflict fed through to prices. A weaker franc added to the pressure. That 1.5% reading sits well above the SNB's September forecast, which put 2026 inflation at 0.7% and projected a peak of 1.2% in Q4 2026 and Q1 2027. Both figures remain inside the bank's 0% to 2% price-stability range.

In an interview with Handelszeitung published around Nov. 5 and 6, Schlegel said October inflation had surprised the bank. He added that no meaningful second-round effects had yet appeared. He also said the SNB would not hesitate to act, including by reintroducing negative rates, according to Central Banking. Reporting from Investinglive framed the remarks against a build-up of December hike bets.

Schlegel's message ran in both directions. In a Nov. 5 appearance he said the bank's policy has been effective, according to Reuters. At 84%, "No Change" remains the strong favorite.

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What Could Confirm or Reverse the SNB Odds Before December 10

The SNB announces its decision at 9:30 a.m. Zurich time on Thursday, December 10, and holds a press conference at 10:00. That announcement resolves the market.

Before then, further upside in inflation, especially any sign of the second-round effects Schlegel said were absent, would extend the slide in "No Change." Softer data would support a move back toward the 92% level seen on Nov. 9.