Titans' Odds of NFL's Worst Record Hit 33% After 0-5 Start

Tennessee now has roughly a one-in-three chance of finishing with the NFL's worst regular-season record. The Titans fell to 0-5 after a 26-3 home loss to the previously winless Houston Texans at Nissan Stadium, according to AP News. Miami, also 0-5, still leads the Kalshi "Pro Football Worst Regular Season Record?" market, but Tennessee is closing the gap.

On Kalshi, Tennessee's implied probability climbed from 22% to 33% over three days, an 11-percentage-point gain, as of Oct. 12, 2026.

Live market odds

1 venue

Pro Football Worst Regular Season Record?

Each outcome's chance, from what traders are paying right now on Kalshi.

TennesseeIn this story

16%

Kalshi6.25x16¢

Arizona

5%

Kalshi20.00x5¢

Los Angeles C

13%

Kalshi7.14x14¢

Miami

53%

Kalshi1.89x53¢

New to Kalshi? Get a $35 trading bonus

Code PRED35. New users only. Eligibility restrictions and terms apply.

Claim offer

Compare every venueCents per $1 payout, before fees

---

Why the Market Is Watching Tennessee and Miami: Two Winless Teams, Two Unchanged Quarterbacks

Miami did not gain ground on Tennessee. The Dolphins lost to Cincinnati on Oct. 11, extending their streak to five losses to open the season. On Oct. 12, coach Jeff Hafley said he is not considering a change at quarterback and that Malik Willis remains the starter entering the Week 6 bye, ESPN reported. Willis ranks last in passer rating among 19 qualifying starters, and Hafley laid out what he wants fixed during the off week.

Tennessee made the same call. First-year coach Robert Saleh said Cam Ward is still the starter and that the team has no plans to bench him, according to AP. Ward is 3-19 as an NFL starter. Saleh called the offense's performance against Houston a "step back" and rejected wholesale changes, the team's site reported.

The box score shows where Tennessee's offense broke down. Ward was sacked four times and hit seven times, and the Titans struggled in the run game, on third down, and with penalties and turnovers. Injuries also hit the secondary: Kevin Winston Jr. and Cor'Dale Flott left the game, and Amani Hooker missed it with a concussion. The win gave Houston a 25-24 lead in the all-time series, its first lead in franchise history.

The longer record explains why traders treat this as more than a slow start. Tennessee has won just 6 of its last 39 games, per A to Z Sports. The Athletic's Oct. 9 draft model made the Titans the 38% favorite for the No. 1 pick in 2027, with a most likely final record of 4-13. That projection also shows that 0-5 does not settle the race: the model still expects Tennessee to win a handful of games.

Tennessee's price rose from 22% to 33% in the three days ending Oct. 12, 2026, after the Week 5 loss to Houston.

1D7D30D

---

What Could Confirm or Reverse Tennessee's Move Next

Miami's Week 6 bye gives Tennessee a full week of results without a matching Dolphins game. A Titans win would ease pressure on Tennessee's price and return the market's focus to Miami. A sixth straight loss would leave Tennessee alone with the most losses in the league while Miami sits idle.

The quarterback decisions are the second variable. Both coaches publicly committed to their starters on Oct. 12, so a benching of Ward or Willis would mark a change of course that neither team has signaled. The 4-13 projection also matters here. A to Z Sports notes Tennessee needs six wins in its remaining 29 games through 2027 to avoid the worst four-year stretch since the 1966 merger.

Live pricing for every team sits on the Pro Football Worst Regular Season Record? market page. The next test is Tennessee's road game at the Indianapolis Colts.