Vikings Are 5-0, So Why Did Their Best-Record Odds Fall to 8%?

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Vikings' Chances of the NFL's Best Record Fall to 8% Despite a 5-0 Start

Minnesota's chances of finishing with the NFL's best regular-season record fell to about 8% on Kalshi's Pro Football Best Regular Season Record market, even though the Vikings are 5-0 and tied with San Francisco for the league's top record after a 23-13 win at New Orleans on Oct. 11. ESPN's Football Power Index ranks Minnesota 13th (tied with Denver), per Broncos Wire's FPI rankings, and its offense is 27th in total yards while playing without injured starters.

Minnesota's implied probability fell from about 16% to 8% over three days, as of Oct. 15, a drop of 8 percentage points. The market resolves Jan. 4, 2027, so traders are pricing 12 more weeks of football, not the current standings.

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Pro Football Best Regular Season Record?

Each outcome's chance, from what traders are paying right now on Kalshi.

MinnesotaIn this story

7%

Kalshi11.11x9¢

Baltimore

3%

Kalshi33.33x3¢

Buffalo

14%

Kalshi7.14x14¢

Chicago

3%

Kalshi25.00x4¢

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The record and the underlying game evidence point in different directions. The New Orleans win shows why.

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What the Vikings' Win Over New Orleans Showed About Minnesota's Offense

The defense won the game. Brian Flores' unit held the Saints to 142 yards and leads the NFL in success rate, points per drive allowed and EPA per play, according to NFL.com. Minnesota has allowed 64 points through five games, a league-best 12.8 per game.

The offense left points on the field. Minnesota lost two fumbles in the red zone, and Will Reichard's three field goals (he is 15-for-15 this season) filled the gap. Kyler Murray, in his third start, threw for 229 yards and a touchdown to Justin Jefferson and scrambled for 54 yards. He did it without left tackle Christian Darrisaw, guard Donovan Jackson, receiver Jordan Addison and tight end T.J. Hockenson, all out injured. ESPN analysts described the result as a repeatable "formula" built on defense and special teams, per Vikings Wire, but the offense still ranks 27th in yards.

The decline lines up with the post-game evidence and the power ratings, which treat Minnesota as a mid-tier team.

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ESPN FPI Ranks Minnesota 13th and Favors San Francisco for the Best Record

ESPN's FPI weights efficiency and schedule rather than wins alone, and it ranks the Vikings 13th, tied with Denver. The same model projects San Francisco, also 5-0, to win about 13.9 games, with a 99.6% chance to make the playoffs and about a 92% chance to win the NFC West, according to ESPN's FPI projections. Buffalo (12.1), Kansas City (about 11.9) and Jacksonville (11.9) follow.

That gap explains why a tie in the standings does not produce a tie in price. A team rated 13th must keep beating opponents the model considers its equals or better, while San Francisco is projected to keep winning at a higher rate. Minnesota's 9-8 finish last season gives the model little prior evidence to lift its rating.

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What Could Move Minnesota's Best-Record Odds Next

Minnesota has a bye in Week 6, so the price has no game result to react to this weekend. Kevin O'Connell has said the offense is "on the ascent," with Addison and running back Jordan Mason expected back after the break. Their return, plus any news on Darrisaw, Jackson and Hockenson, is the first test of whether the offense can climb from 27th in yards.

A clean offensive showing, an FPI bump from its current ranking, or a San Francisco loss that cuts its projected win total would challenge the slide. Readers can follow the full field on the Pro Football Best Regular Season Record odds page.