Who Will Win the Alaska Senate Race? Polls and Latest News

Live market odds

Alaska Senate winner? (Person)

Each outcome's chance, from what traders are paying right now on .

Compare every venueCents per $1 payout, before fees

Hover the chart for prices over time. Each dot under it is a story update; hover to preview it, click to jump to it.

---

Background

Alaska voters choose a U.S. senator on Nov. 3, 2026. Democrat Mary Peltola is challenging Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan. Four candidates are on the ballot, including a second candidate named Dan J. Sullivan, a retired Petersburg schoolteacher who survived the August open primary. The New York Times reported that Peltola campaign aides helped recruit him as a spoiler, which Peltola denies. A federal criminal probe has been confirmed, and a Justice Department lawsuit over certification was dismissed, though the department has said it will appeal.

---

Nov. 4, 2026: Peltola's Senate Odds Hit 88% as Polls Show a Narrower Race

Is Mary Peltola Favored to Win the Alaska Senate Race Against Dan Sullivan?

Yes, Mary Peltola is favored in the "Alaska Senate winner? (Person)" market and leads Sen. Dan Sullivan in some of the final public polls. AtlasIntel showed her ahead 50% to 45% on Nov. 2, and the final NYT/Siena survey had her up 48% to 46%. Election Day results were not yet confirmed, according to The Washington Post. A day before the AtlasIntel release, a federal judge dismissed the Justice Department lawsuit that sought to block certification if Sullivan lost.

Traders priced Peltola at 88% in the market on Nov. 4, up from 72% three days earlier, a gain of roughly 16 percentage points. Kalshi listed her at 88% and Polymarket at 89%. The court ruling and the AtlasIntel poll are the closest verifiable events to the move. Neither has been shown to have caused it. The federal probe into a second ballot candidate named Dan J. Sullivan was confirmed earlier in the period and was still open as voters went to the polls.

Are There Polls for Mary Peltola in the Alaska Senate Race?

Two named polls are cited here, and both show Peltola ahead, but they disagree on the margin. A third survey, from InsiderAdvantage around Nov. 1-2, has been reported as a tie at 48-48, but that figure has not been verified here.

Poll	Dates	Peltola	Sullivan	Margin
AtlasIntel	Nov. 2	50%	45%	Peltola +5
NYT/Siena (final)	Oct. 23 to Nov. 1	48%	46%	Peltola +2

The NYT/Siena field period straddles the report that the Peltola campaign helped recruit the namesake candidate, published Oct. 28. Peltola denies those allegations.

A poll and a market price measure different things:

• A poll estimates vote share at one moment, and the result carries a margin of error.
• A market price is traders' implied probability that a candidate wins.

An 88% price does not mean Peltola will take 88% of the vote. It means traders give her an 88% chance of being declared the winner. A lead of 2 to 5 points is narrow, so the polls alone do not obviously account for a price that high. That gap is worth noting as a caution. It is not evidence that the market is mispriced.

The Nov. 1 ruling and the Nov. 2 poll fall inside the charted window. They are shown as context, not as proven causes of the move.

What Could Still Change the Alaska Senate Winner Market After Election Day?

The Nov. 1 dismissal removed one legal obstacle: the Justice Department's attempt to block certification if Sullivan lost. The department has said it will appeal. The separate criminal probe into the namesake candidate is still active. The Justice Department sent target letters in that probe, including one to attorney Marc Elias. On Nov. 3, the Washington Examiner reported on Alaska Values PAC mailers that promoted both Peltola and the namesake candidate. The New York Times linked that PAC to the Peltola campaign.

Sullivan has said he will accept the results, while continuing to attack Peltola. The race uses ranked-choice ballots, so election-night totals may not produce a clear winner. Alaska Public Media covers the stakes of the election.

Each contract settles on the officially determined winner under its own rules. Traders should check the resolution terms on the Alaska Senate winner market page before reading the price as a final call. The ruling, the poll and the open probe frame the three-day climb, but none of them fully accounts for its size.

---

Earlier Updates

Oct. 31, 2026: Peltola's Senate Odds Fall to 69% as DOJ Probes 'Two Sullivans' Claim

Mary Peltola74% → 69%▼5

On Oct. 30, federal prosecutors confirmed a criminal probe into claims that Peltola's campaign and DSCC aides helped recruit a second Republican named Dan J. Sullivan to split the incumbent's vote, a claim made by fired campaign manager Elisa Rios, who has since retracted it. Peltola denies the allegations, and a federal judge has since barred the government from trying to separate ballots or threaten the election.

Oct. 29, 2026: Peltola's Senate Odds Hit 70% Amid NYT Report on Second Dan Sullivan

Mary Peltola75% → 70%▼5

Mary Peltola is the favorite to win Alaska's Senate race, with the Alaska Senate winner market pricing her at 70% on Oct. 29, down from 75% three days earlier. The New York Times reported on Oct. 28 that her campaign aides helped recruit a spoiler candidate named Dan J. Sullivan, who shares a name with Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan. Peltola and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee deny any involvement, and Peltola called the report a distraction, according to The Hill.