Who Will Win the Spain General Election? Polls and Latest News

Live market odds

1 venue

Spain General Election Winner

Each outcome's chance, from what traders are paying right now on Polymarket.

PSOEIn this story

18%

Polymarket5.56x18¢

Will PP win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election? [Yes]

83%

Polymarket1.20x83¢

Vox

1%

Polymarket83.33x1.2¢

Broad Front (FA) and Podemos: under 1% eachShow all

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Background

Spain holds a general election on 29 November to elect the Cortes Generales, and the market asks which party wins the election. The main contenders are the Partido Popular (PP) led by Alberto Núñez Feijóo, the PSOE of Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, and Vox, with the PP and PSOE the two parties in the race for first place. The official campaign runs 13 to 27 November.

The dynamic that matters most is that the question turns on which party finishes first in seats, not on forming a government or on the size of the margin. A single vote settles it, with no runoff. Bloc strength, such as PP plus Vox against the 176-seat majority mark, is a separate matter from who finishes first, so a Vox rise can take seats from PP without changing the leading party. Seat counts depend on how votes fall across provinces.

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Nov. 4, 2026: PSOE's Chances of Winning Spain's Election Fall to 10% as Polls Put PP

PSOE's Chances of Winning Spain's Election Fall to 10% as Polls Put PP Ahead After the Urda Train Crash

Spain's election polls since the Urda train crash show PSOE trailing PP by roughly 4 to 7 points ahead of the 29 November vote. Sigma Dos for El Mundo puts PSOE at 24.6%, down about 1.5 points in a week (roughly 450,000 votes), against PP at 31.1%, projecting PSOE at about 97 to 103 seats. In the Spain General Election Winner market, PSOE fell from 16% to 10% over three days, reaching 10% on Nov. 4.

The sequence is dated and tight. On Wednesday 28 October, an Iryo train and an AVE high-speed train collided at Urda (Toledo), killing about 69 people, nine months after the Adamuz crash killed 46. All campaign events were suspended. Polls published 1 to 3 November then recorded PSOE losing ground. On Tuesday 3 November, Transport Minister Óscar Puente resigned and withdrew from the PSOE lists at a hearing before Congress's Permanent Deputation, The Guardian and POLITICO reported.

Other surveys line up with Sigma Dos. NC Report has PP at 32.6% and PSOE at 25.6%; Sociométrica (1 November) has PP at 32.7% and PSOE at 26.6%; Target Point puts PSOE at 25.5%. The El Periódico poll average shows PP ahead by about 4.4 points, with Vox up modestly to around 19% to 20%. Sánchez defended Puente publicly: "Políticos como él dignifican a nuestro país y nos demuestran que no todos somos iguales," he said, per El Español.

What Could Confirm or Reverse the PSOE Move Before 29 November

The chart's 10% reading on Nov. 4 matches the period low, so the contract has shown no rebound since the resignation. The 28 October crash sits before the three-day fall; the decline runs alongside the 1 to 3 November polling and Puente's 3 November exit.

The polling gap is a range, not a single number: 4.4 points in El Periódico's average, about 6.5 in Sigma Dos and 7 in NC Report. The implied probability reads that spread of evidence rather than one confirmed result. Puente's name also stays atop the Valladolid Congress list on the ballot, because proclaimed lists cannot be altered, and Sánchez still has to fill or reassign the transport portfolio mid-campaign.

The checkable evidence between now and the vote is further polling during the official campaign, which runs 13 to 27 November. Later surveys narrowing PP's lead would be the clearest signal against the move; surveys holding the 4 to 7 point gap would support it. Live pricing across outcomes sits on the Spain General Election Winner odds page. Spaniards vote on 29 November.

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Earlier Updates

Oct. 26, 2026: Spain Election Polls: PP Lead Narrows, Yet Most-Seats Odds Hit 81%

Will PP win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election? [Yes]75% → 81%▲6

On Oct. 26, a 15-poll average put the Partido Popular at 31.3% and the PSOE at 26.9%, but the PP's lead was narrowing in several surveys. Sigma Dos for El Mundo cut the PP-PSOE gap from 6.2 to 4.5 points in a week, while NC Report for La Razón showed PP falling to 32.9% as PSOE and Vox each gained ground. Libertad Digital summarized the week as the PP falling, the PSOE starting to recover, and Vox remaining strong.