Oil at $100 on Election Day? Odds Double as Middle East Tensions

Prediction markets give WTI crude about a 27% chance of settling at $100 or above on Election Day, Nov. 3, 2026, more than the 13% of three days earlier. Front-month WTI settled at $95.09 on Oct. 14, according to Dow Jones via Morningstar. That day, booms were reported near Saudi Aramco's headquarters in Dhahran after Houthi strikes on Saudi targets, and tankers came under attack near the Strait of Hormuz, according to InvestingLive. Brent traded near $106.

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Will WTI Be Above $100 on Election Day 2026? Markets Now Say 27%

On Kalshi, the "$100 Or Above" outcome in the Oil Price (WTI) on Election Day (November 3, 2026)? market implied about 27% on Oct. 15. Three days earlier it stood at 13%, a rise of roughly 14 percentage points. The probability doubled, but 27% remains well short of even odds. Traders still treat a WTI settle below $100 as the more likely outcome.

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Oil Price (WTI) on Election Day (November 3, 2026)?

Each outcome's chance, from what traders are paying right now on Kalshi.

$100 Or AboveIn this story

42%

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$75 Or Above

98%

Kalshi1.01x99¢

$76 Or Above

98%

Kalshi1.01x99¢

$77 Or Above

97%

Kalshi1.02x98¢

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The repricing came amid news that pulled oil prices in both directions: escalation headlines on one side and a bearish sanctions story on the other.

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Houthi Strikes on Saudi Aramco and Hormuz Attacks Coincided With a WTI Gain; Russia Sanction Talk Pulled It Back

On Oct. 14 front-month Nymex WTI rose about 1% to settle at $95.09, up from $94.14, with a session high of $96.06, Dow Jones via Morningstar reported. The gain came during the same session as the Dhahran strikes and the Hormuz tanker attacks. President Trump accused the Houthis of trying to push oil prices higher before the US midterms. Iranian officials said their new tactics in Hormuz aim to keep prices high.

The bearish counterweight arrived in early Asian trading on Oct. 15. Talk of a US-Russia diesel deal and possible easing of sanctions on Russia's shadow-fleet tankers pushed WTI down to about $93.10, per FXStreet. Reuters coverage described traders weighing that supply outlook against the Middle East tensions.

The size of the remaining gap helps frame the 27% price. At $93, WTI sits about 7.5% below $100. At $95, it is about 5% below. Long-dated prices also rose: WTI's calendar-2027 strip hit a record near $84. The sources do not establish how much of the move from 13% to 27% each event explains.

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What Could Confirm or Reverse the $100 Call Before Nov 3

Signals that would confirm the move:

• Further Houthi strikes on Saudi infrastructure.
• More attacks on Hormuz shipping.
• WTI holding above the $95 area from Oct. 14.

Supply data also supports the bullish case. The API reported an 11.12 million-barrel crude draw for the week to Oct. 9, far above expectations. The IEA warned that diesel could stay tight into 2027.

Signals that would reverse the move:

• US-Russia sanction relief moving from talk to a signed agreement.
• WTI breaking below $93.
• An additional IEA stock release, after members discussed a possible extra 100 million barrels.

Iran remains a two-way risk. Trump said he would decide on Iran "very soon," and he reportedly will not strike before the midterms. Live pricing across all thresholds is on the WTI Election Day oil price market page. The contract settles on WTI's price on Nov. 3, 2026, and resolves Nov. 11.