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Live prediction market odds for TX-28 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

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TX-28 House winner?

2026-11-04

Best price · tap to trade

Henry Cuellar (D)89¢1.12xPolymarket USTano Tijerina (R)12¢8.33xKalshi

About This Market

Traders give Henry Cuellar (D) about a 89.2% chance. Tano Tijerina (R) follows at 10.5%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 1.5 percentage points.

Traders give Henry Cuellar (D) about a 89.2% chance. Tano Tijerina (R) follows at 10.5%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 1.5 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the TX-28 House race set for November 4, 2026. This election is pivotal as it could influence the balance of power in Congress and reflect voter sentiment on key issues in Texas.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
HC
Henry Cuellar (D)
89%
Kalshi90¢
Polymarket US89¢
Polymarket90¢
Polymarket US1.12x89¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
89.0%89¢90¢10¢11¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
88.5%88¢89¢11¢12¢
PolymarketPolymarket
90.0%88¢90¢10¢12¢
TT
Tano Tijerina (R)
11%
Kalshi12¢
—
Polymarket11¢
Kalshi8.33x12¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
11.0%11¢12¢88¢89¢
PolymarketPolymarket
10.0%9¢11¢89¢91¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Henry Cuellar (D)

Henry Cuellar is the U.S. Representative for Texas' 28th Congressional District, serving his eleventh term in the House of Representatives. He previously served as the Texas Secretary of State in 2001. Cuellar is a senior member of the House Appropriations Committee and Ranking Member of its Homeland Security Subcommittee.

About Tano Tijerina (R)

Tano Tijerina is the current Webb County Judge in Laredo, Texas. He has served in this role since 2015, overseeing county operations and infrastructure. Tijerina is a Republican candidate for Texas' 28th Congressional District in the 2026 general election.

Smart Trade Router

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread1.5%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Henry Cuellar (D)

89.2% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: TX-28 House winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for TX-28 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Democratic Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the TX-28 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the TX-28 House race?

Factors include candidate popularity, campaign funding, voter turnout, and local issues. Polling data and endorsements also play a crucial role in shaping market expectations.

How does the TX-28 House race impact national politics?

The outcome could affect the overall composition of the House of Representatives, influencing legislative priorities. Additionally, it may serve as a bellwether for upcoming elections in other districts.

When will the TX-28 House race results be available?

Results are expected to be reported on election night, November 4, 2026. However, final certification of the results may take several days or weeks, depending on the state’s election procedures.

What does the TX-28 House winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest TX-28 House winner odds?

The latest available prices are Henry Cuellar (D): 89.0¢ on Kalshi, 90.0¢ on Polymarket, 88.5¢ on Polymarket US; Tano Tijerina (R): 11.0¢ on Kalshi, 10.0¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Final odds

Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

TX-28 Markets Drop 10 Points on Democrats Despite Cuellar's 11-PointDemocratic odds fell from 84% to 74% in three days as traders weigh Cuellar's bribery conviction against a neutral poll showing him up 11 over Tijerina.Sep 9, 2026Democratic Party Hits 68% in TX-28 Despite Candidate's Federal ConvictionCuellar won his primary with 58% after a bribery conviction. Markets now price Democrats at 68% in a district Trump carried by 5 points.May 18, 2026Will Democrats Hold TX-28? Cuellar's Odds Fall 9 Points to 58%Markets dropped Democrats 9 points in three days with no news. Cuellar faces a federal bribery indictment in a district Trump won with 54.8% in 2024.May 16, 2026

Prediction Market Track Record

Who will be the Democratic nominee for TX-28 in 2026?WONPre-event: 98%Who will leave Congress before July?LOSTPre-event: 1%

Historical Track Record

Scroll to view past markets

Who will be the Democratic nominee for TX-28 in 2026?

Resolved

2026-05-01

WONHenry Cuellar (D)
Pre-event: 98%

Who will leave Congress before July?

Resolved

2026-07-08

LOSTHenry Cuellar (D)
Pre-event: 1%