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Live prediction market odds for VA-01 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket and Predict.fun.

Kalshi

Kalshi

4.9
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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket / Predict.fun

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VA-01 House winner?

2026-11-04

Best price · tap to trade

Rob Wittman (R)66¢1.52xKalshiShannon Taylor (D)35¢2.86xPolymarket US

About This Market

Traders give Rob Wittman (R) about a 64.7% chance. Shannon Taylor (D) follows at 35.7%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, and Predict.fun. The largest cross-platform price difference is 19.1 percentage points.

Traders give Rob Wittman (R) about a 64.7% chance. Shannon Taylor (D) follows at 35.7%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, and Predict.fun. The largest cross-platform price difference is 19.1 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the VA-01 House race set for November 2026. This election will be pivotal as it could influence party control in the House and reflect voter sentiment on key issues leading up to the election.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

4 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
Kalshi
Polymarket US
Polymarket
Predict.fun
Best price
RW
Rob Wittman (R)ARB
65%
Kalshi66¢
Polymarket US67¢
Polymarket63¢
Predict.fun93¢
Kalshi1.52x66¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
65.5%65¢66¢34¢35¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
66.5%66¢67¢33¢34¢
PolymarketPolymarket
62.0%62¢63¢37¢38¢
Predict.funPredict.fun
79.8%67¢93¢8¢33¢
ST
Shannon Taylor (D)
36%
Kalshi36¢
Polymarket US35¢
Polymarket38¢
Predict.fun36¢
Polymarket US2.86x35¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
35.5%35¢36¢64¢65¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
34.5%34¢35¢65¢66¢
PolymarketPolymarket
37.0%36¢38¢62¢64¢
Predict.funPredict.fun
17.9%0¢36¢64¢100¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarketPredict.funPredict.fun

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Rob Wittman (R)

Rob Wittman is the U.S. Representative for Virginia's 1st Congressional District, serving since 2007. He is Vice Chairman of the House Armed Services Committee and Chairman of the Tactical Air and Land Forces Subcommittee. Wittman has a strong record in military oversight and constituent services.

About Shannon Taylor (D)

Shannon Taylor is the Henrico County Commonwealth's Attorney. She has served in this role since 2012, focusing on public safety and criminal justice reform. Her extensive experience in law and public service makes her a significant contender in the Virginia's 1st Congressional District race.

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread19.1%
Platforms4
Candidates2
Leader

Rob Wittman (R)

64.7% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: VA-01 House winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Predict.fun.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for VA-1 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Democratic Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the VA-01 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Predict.funPredict.fun
Primary Rule

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the VA-01 House race?

Key factors include candidate popularity, campaign funding, and local issues that resonate with voters. Polling data and endorsements can also significantly sway market perceptions.

How does the VA-01 House race impact national politics?

The outcome could affect the balance of power in the House of Representatives, influencing legislative priorities. A shift in control may lead to changes in policy direction and governance strategies.

When will the VA-01 House race take place?

The election for the VA-01 House seat is scheduled for November 4, 2026. This timing places it in the context of broader midterm elections, which often see higher voter turnout.

What does the VA-01 House winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, Predict.fun in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest VA-01 House winner odds?

The latest available prices are Rob Wittman (R): 65.5¢ on Kalshi, 62.0¢ on Polymarket, 66.5¢ on Polymarket US, 79.8¢ on Predict.fun; Shannon Taylor (D): 35.5¢ on Kalshi, 37.0¢ on Polymarket, 34.5¢ on Polymarket US, 17.9¢ on Predict.fun. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Swiss initiatives: September 2026

Resolved Sep 27

Final odds
Smart Money Positioning (24 hours)
Full Feed

Smart money is heavily fading Rob Wittman (R)

Smart Money Consensus$140
$140No
Smart Traders Split1
1No
Polymarket USBuy No at 34¢Best price among US-regulated venues.

$10K+ lifetime-profit wallets · 24h net flow

Rob Wittman (R)
No$140 · 1 whale
Shannon Taylor (D)
Yes$128 · 1 whale

$10K+ lifetime-profit wallets · 24h net flow

Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

Wittman's VA-01 Odds Fall 9 Points as D+8.1 Headwinds Hit R+4.7 DistrictRepublican implied probability in VA-01 fell from 63% to 54% in 72 hours. A D+8.1 national environment now exceeds the district's R+4.7 structural lean.Sep 6, 2026Republicans Fall to 39% Favorites to Hold VA-01 in 2026Markets now favor Democrats 54–39 to flip VA-01, despite Wittman winning the seat by 12 points in 2024 and holding it since 2007.Jun 19, 2026