Texas's National Title Chances Fall to 4% After Florida Upset in Austin

Texas's chances of winning the 2026 college football national championship fell from 10% to 4% over three days on Kalshi's College Football National Championship Winner market, after Florida beat the No. 7 Longhorns 27-24 in Austin, according to Bettors Insider. The defeat was Texas's second straight, a week after a walk-off loss to Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry (Yahoo Sports). The market read 4% on Oct. 18, 2026.

Live market odds

4 venues

College Football National Championship Winner

Each outcome's chance, from what traders are paying right now on Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket and Predict.fun.

TexasIn this story

4%

KalshiBest price25.00x4¢Polymarket US25.00x4¢Polymarket22.73x4.4¢

Ohio State

33%

KalshiBest price7.69x13¢Polymarket US7.69x13¢Polymarket6.25x16¢Predict.fun1.10x90.7¢

Notre Dame

24%

Polymarket USBest price7.69x13¢Kalshi7.14x14¢Polymarket6.67x15¢Predict.fun1.83x54.7¢

Indiana

29%

KalshiBest price12.50x8¢Polymarket12.50x8¢Polymarket US10.00x10¢Predict.fun1.09x91.5¢

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How Texas went from title favorite to 4% in a month

On Sept. 12, No. 4 Texas erased a 20-point fourth-quarter deficit to beat No. 1 Ohio State 24-23 at home. Arch Manning threw for 196 yards and a touchdown, and Hollywood Smothers scored the winning touchdown with 25 seconds left. That result, paired with an earlier win at Tennessee, made Texas the betting favorite and gave it what was widely seen as the strongest early resume in the country.

The Red River game reversed that standing. Oklahoma won on a last-second field goal in Dallas, and Yahoo Sports reported growing doubt around the program, including Maxx Crosby's remark that Texas isn't "natty-type good" and criticism of Manning and an offense that struggled in the third quarter and the running game. Bettors Insider described Florida as a near must-win for playoff hopes. Texas lost it.

The verified pricing covers the three-day window around the Florida loss: a 6-percentage-point decline from 10% to 4%. The sources tie the repricing to the two results and do not establish a single cause beyond them.

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What could move Texas's title odds next

Texas's remaining schedule offers the checkpoints: Ole Miss in Week 8, at Missouri in Week 10, at LSU in Week 11 and at Texas A&M in Week 13. A third straight loss, starting against Ole Miss, would confirm the market's repricing. A win streak through three road games, including LSU and A&M, is the path to reversal. The sources do not address a specific CFP qualification scenario for a team with Texas's record.

The title game is scheduled for Jan. 25, 2027. Live prices for every contender sit on the College Football National Championship Winner odds page.