Texas's National Title Chances Fall to 8% After Red River Loss

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Texas's national title chances fall to 8% after 27-24 loss to Oklahoma

Texas's chances of winning the national championship fell to 8% on Kalshi's College Football National Championship Winner market (as of Oct. 13) after the AP No. 1 Longhorns lost 27-24 to unranked Oklahoma on Saturday, Oct. 10, 2026, at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas. Tate Sandell's 47-yard field goal as time expired ended Texas's unbeaten season, according to Texas Athletics. The Longhorns fell to No. 7 in the AP poll, and their FanDuel title price lengthened from about +650 to +900, per Sports Illustrated.

Texas's implied probability fell from 14% to 8% over three days. Georgia, which beat Alabama 20-17 to claim AP No. 1, became the market favorite at about 20%.

Live market odds

4 venues

College Football National Championship Winner

Each outcome's chance, from what traders are paying right now on Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket and Predict.fun.

TexasIn this story

4%

KalshiBest price25.00x4¢Polymarket US25.00x4¢Polymarket23.26x4.3¢

Ohio State

33%

KalshiBest price7.69x13¢Polymarket US7.14x14¢Polymarket6.25x16¢Predict.fun1.09x91.8¢

Notre Dame

33%

KalshiBest price7.69x13¢Polymarket US7.14x14¢Polymarket6.67x15¢Predict.fun1.09x92¢

Indiana

29%

KalshiBest price12.50x8¢Polymarket12.50x8¢Polymarket US10.00x10¢Predict.fun1.09x91.8¢

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Arch Manning's two fourth-quarter interceptions decided the Red River game

Texas led 17-7 at halftime, then gave up the first 17 points of the second half. Manning finished with 260 passing yards and three touchdowns, but his two fourth-quarter interceptions, one returned for a touchdown, handed Oklahoma the momentum that set up Sandell's winning kick. AP News described it as another shaky showing for the Longhorns' offense, and the result pushed Texas out of the top five title contenders, per MARCA.

The sources do not establish which specific plays traders reacted to. The contract also touched a period low of 6% before recovering 2 percentage points to its Oct. 13 level.

The strongest case against a deeper discount is Texas's résumé. CBS Sports still projects about a 66.8% College Football Playoff chance for Texas, anchored by a Week 2 win over Ohio State, while PFN's model trimmed its playoff figure from 92.9% to 84.5%. Making the 12-team field and winning the title are different questions, but both models keep Texas in contention.

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What could move Texas's title odds next

Florida visits Austin on Oct. 17, followed by home games against Ole Miss and Mississippi State, then road trips to Missouri on Nov. 7 and LSU on Nov. 14. The Missouri and LSU trips are the clearest tests of whether Manning's late-game turnovers were a one-week problem.

The next AP poll and the Florida result are the immediate checkpoints. Wins, particularly away from home in November, would test whether 8% undervalues Texas against a Georgia team priced near 20%. A second loss would test whether 8% is still too high. Live pricing for every contender sits on the College Football National Championship Winner odds page.