2028 Presidential Election Odds

The 2028 cycle trades as three distinct markets, and they answer three different questions. The party market prices which party wins the White House. The nominee markets price who each party puts on the ballot. The general-election market prices individual candidates to win outright. All three are on this page, quoted across every platform listing them.

The party market is the liquid one and the one worth anchoring on. It carries only a handful of contracts, absorbs national news immediately, and is far harder to distort than a crowded nominee field. Read it first, then read the nominee markets as a decomposition of it: a candidate’s outright price should sit close to their nomination probability multiplied by their party’s win probability. When it does not, the market is saying something specific about how that candidate would perform in a general, and that is usually the most interesting number on the board.

Nominee fields behave unlike anything else in politics. Twenty or more contracts can trade simultaneously, most of them in single-digit cents, and the sum of every listed candidate is itself a signal: well under 100¢ means the market expects someone not yet listed. Long-dated nominee contracts are also the slowest-decaying markets on any platform, since the resolution date is years out and capital tied up in them earns nothing - which is why early prices skew toward name recognition and drift as the field actually forms.

Treat prices this far out as a live consensus rather than a forecast. Cycles reorder on events that have not happened yet - retirements, indictments, primary entries, midterm results - and the historical record of early presidential favourites is poor. What the board does give you, reliably, is the fastest available read on how expectations shift the day news breaks, several years before polling of a general electorate means much at all.