Market News & Analysis
Auto-generated, data-driven articles on significant prediction market moves and cross-platform arbitrage opportunities. 1,331 published · page 1 of 14.
Castor FL-14 Re-Election Odds Fall 10 Points to Near Toss-Up
Prediction markets price Castor at 59% as Inside Elections calls FL-14 a toss-up, the first genuinely competitive rating of her 18-year tenure.
Tonko Hits 96% on Kalshi as Markets Close Gap With Forecasters
Prediction markets repriced Tonko 10 points higher in 72 hours. Structural models have held at 99% for weeks, projecting a D+27.1 margin.
Casar's TX-37 Opponent Has $770. Why Not 100%?
Casar sits at 96% with a 775-to-1 fundraising edge over Lauren Peña. The residual 4% is a time premium, not competitive risk.
Markets Price Elmano at 61% While Datafolha Shows a Dead Heat
Elmano's win probability jumped 8 points in three days despite a statistical tie in Datafolha. Two of three recent polls show him leading by 7 points.
Man City Top 4 Odds Fall to 62% After Guilty Verdict on 114 Charges
City convicted on 114 of 115 Premier League financial charges; relegation is now priced at 18%, with sanctions ranging from points deductions to expulsion still to be determined.
Miller Trails by 8 in OH-07 Polls as Market Prices Him at 32%
Traders pushed Miller from 20% to 32% in three days, but a Bedrock poll shows Poindexter leading 43-35 with early voting starting in eight days.
Don Beyer Hits 96% in VA-08 as GOP Fields No Real Challenger
Beyer's primary win at 67% and a canceled GOP primary pushed his market price to 96%. The district backed Democrats by 47 points in 2024.
Fong Hits 98% in CA-20 After $45M in Grants and Wildfire Law
A 9-point surge in three days follows $45M+ in federal deliverables in a district Fong already won by 36 points in the June primary.
FL-17: Why Steube's 94% Market Price Lags a 98% Forecast
Call the Map projects Steube at 98-in-100 with R+16.4. Markets moved from 87% to 94% in three days but still trail the model by four points.
Ohio State's Big Ten Title Odds Rise to 45% Despite Texas Collapse
Bettors lifted Ohio State's conference title probability 9 points to 45% after the Texas loss, pricing a favorable Big Ten schedule over a non-conference collapse.
Kotek Oregon Governor Odds Fall 8 Points as Drazan Rematch Takes Shape
Prediction markets price Kotek at 78%, down from 86% in three days. The 2022 race was decided by under 3 points with a third-party spoiler who isn't running in 2026.
Leiper Drops 9 Points in Ottawa Mayor Race After Rival's Arrest
Jeff Leiper fell from 16% to 7% in three days. The arrest stems from death-threat charges targeting the incumbent Leiper is trying to unseat.
Forecasters Rate Cammack 97-98% in FL-03 While Markets Sit at 94%
Every major forecaster rates Cammack near-certain in FL-03. Prediction markets trail at 94%, likely due to thin liquidity, not competitive doubt.
Yamal's Ballon d'Or 2026 Odds Hit 33% as Kane's Lead Shrinks to 26
Yamal jumped 9 points in three days, trimming Kane's lead from 35pp to 26pp. He now trades at 34% on Kalshi and 32% on Polymarket with five weeks to go.
Virginia Foxx Hits 88% in NC-05 as Markets Correct a Persistent
Foxx gained 9 points in three days with no new catalyst. She holds a 9:1 cash advantage in a Safe R district rated R+11.6.
Rodriguez Polls Tied in FL-27, but Bettors Cut His Chances 10 Points
Rodriguez sits at 38% on Kalshi and Polymarket despite a 45-45 poll vs. Salazar, with Cook rating the district Lean R.
Georgia's SEC Title Odds Hit 42% Despite Leading Preseason Poll
Markets price Georgia at 42% for the 2026 SEC title after an 88-vote preseason poll lead, while a road slate at Alabama and Ole Miss keeps them below a coin flip.
Steve Womack Hits 96% in AR-03 as Challenger Raises Just $120K
Womack's re-election probability jumped 8 points in three days. His Democratic challenger has raised $120K against a $1.9M war chest in an R+15 district.
Lynx Title Odds Fell 20 Points in 72 Hours. Here's Why.
The No. 1 seed with a 33-11 record, Minnesota dropped from 44% to 24% as Napheesa Collier's ankle recovery and a Liberty first-round draw spooked traders.
Dyas Drops 14 Points in Three Days as Cannan Leads Kelowna Mayor Race
Tom Dyas fell from 51% to 38% after his 'Treatment First' platform launch coincided with the steepest three-day decline of his campaign, with October 17 three weeks out.
Louisville ACC Title Odds Fall to 6% Despite Beating SMU
Louisville dropped from 15% to 6% in three days. A win over SMU couldn't offset Virginia Tech's surge, which is compressing rivals across the ACC board.
Conaway Hits 94% in NJ-03 as Cook Rates Seat Solid D
Call the Map projects D+20.1; no Republican has cleared any forecast threshold. Conaway ran unopposed in the Democratic primary.
Georgia CFP Top-4 Seed Probability Drops 21 Points in 3 Days
Georgia fell from 54% to 33% on CFP top-4 seed markets. Road trips to Alabama and Ole Miss headline a 2026 SEC slate that bettors are treating as near-disqualifying.
Gooden Hits 94% in TX-05 as Ethics Probe Fails to Dent His Reelection
Prediction markets price Gooden as a near-lock despite an active House Ethics Committee probe, with opponent Chelsey Hockett holding just $5,000 cash on hand.
Ohio State CFP Odds Hit 45% Despite Blowing 20-Point Lead to Texas
Buckeyes lost 24-23 after leading 23-3 in the fourth quarter. Markets absorbed the collapse and repriced Ohio State 16 points higher over three days.
JMU Hits 42% in Sun Belt Title Market After 10-Point Surge
JMU jumped from 32% to 42% in three days, the largest mid-season move in the Sun Belt title market. No rival has cleared the low teens.
AI-PAC Spending Gives DeSpain Her Best Attack as Hoyle Sits at 95%
Hoyle's win probability climbed 8 points in 3 days. A $292K AI-PAC spend she never authorized is DeSpain's only real line of attack.
Moolenaar Hits 98% in MI-02 After Challenger Wins Split Primary with 44%
Ambrose took the Democratic nomination with 44.3%, leaving more than half of primary voters behind. Moolenaar holds $1.9M cash on hand in a Safe R seat.
Yan's Title Odds Drop 11 Points Before Dvalishvili Trilogy
Yan's year-end title probability fell from 64% to 53% in three days. Dvalishvili already owns a win over the current champion and gets his rematch October 24.
Ken Sim Falls to 28% as Progressives Unite Behind Pete Fry
Azaroff's exit handed Fry a clear run at Sim, collapsing the incumbent's market probability from 39% to 28% in three days and ending the vote-split that kept Sim competitive.
Harbaugh Coach of the Year Volume Spikes 4.5x, Price Holds at 7%
$51K traded on Sep 26 at 4.5x the weekly baseline. Harbaugh's implied probability moved one percentage point, from 6% to 7%, suggesting two-sided disagreement rather than directional conviction.
Graham's SC Senate Odds Hold at 87% After 5.7x Volume Spike
$125K traded on Sept 26 vs. a $22K daily average. Republican odds held flat while Kalshi led with $75K across 134 trades.
Rival Resets, Not Collapses, Cut Boise State's Pac-12 Title Odds by 11
Boise fell from 48% to 38% as Oregon and USC shed known liabilities, creating option value that tightened the field rather than opening it.
Western Michigan MAC Title Odds Cut to 22% After NCAA Rejects Hail Mary
Broncos drop 11 percentage points from 33% as the NCAA refused to overturn their disputed 13-12 opening loss to Michigan, erasing the undefeated blueprint.
Democratic Senate Sweep Falls to 58% on GOP Ad Gap and Michigan
Prediction markets price a Democratic sweep of the core four Senate races at 58%, down 8 points in three days. Rogers' crossover outreach in Michigan is a key driver.
Stelson's PA-10 Odds Drop 12 Points as First Fall Poll Shows Perry +3
Markets cut Stelson from 86% to 74% in three days after a Franklin & Marshall poll put Perry ahead. Call the Map still gives her 68%.
DCCC Backing Pushes Barrett to 31% Underdog in MI-07
Barrett fell 11 points in 3 days after DCCC added Lawrence to Red to Blue. His $6.3M war chest has not reversed the slide.
Leipzig's Top 4 Odds Fall 19 Points After 2-2 Start to 2026-27
Prediction markets price Leipzig at 43% for a Bundesliga top-4 finish, down from 62% three days ago, with Kalshi and Polymarket showing a 36-point spread.
Jackson's Maine Senate Odds Fall 8 Points as Collins Fights Back
A $1.1M GOP ad blitz on transgender prison policy and Collins's Social Security rebuttals pulled Jackson from 71% to 63% in three days.
India's Ebola Odds Fall to 12% After 11,000 Travelers Screened Clean
Markets cut India's 2026 Ebola probability 16 percentage points in three days. Zero cases found among nearly 11,000 screened arrivals despite a Congo outbreak topping 6,000 infections.
Hurricane Nolo Stalls 150 Miles From Hawaii as Landfall Odds Fall to 10%
Forecasters expect Nolo to turn west before reaching shore, pushing the 2026 Hawaii landfall contract down 14 points in three days. October remains.
Meloni Hits 44% to Win Italy's Next Election After Electoral Reform
Markets price Meloni at 44% for PM, up 9 points in 3 days, as parliament-backed electoral reform strengthens her structural position against a fragmented opposition.
Gillingham's Re-Election Odds Fall to 52% as 13 Candidates Enter
Incumbent shed 10 percentage points in three days. Kevin Klein's entry and a 13-candidate field are fracturing his coalition.
Lyon's 4-0 Win Cuts Rennes' Ligue 1 Top 4 Chances to 33%
Rennes fell from 48% to 33% in three days after the Lyon defeat pushed them to fifth, with PSG climbing and the Top 4 race tightening around them.
Elmano Jumps to 56% After Polls Cut Ciro's 19-Point Lead to 5
Three Sept. 18 polls erased Ciro's August lead. Markets price Elmano at 56%, yet every published runoff simulation still gives Ciro a 48–45 edge.
Rick Jackson Hits 47% in Georgia Gov Markets Despite 3-Point Poll Lead
Jackson surged 14pp in prediction markets over 72 hours, yet his lone public poll shows a 48%-45% lead with 7% undecided and a debate looming October 6.
Hinojosa Falls to 22% as Polls Show Texas Governor Race a Tossup
Bettors cut Hinojosa 9 points in 3 days while RealClearPolitics moved the race to tossup. Republican ads outpaced Democrats 502M to 331M impressions in September.
Ohio State Big Ten Title Odds Hit 44% Despite Texas Collapse
Markets pushed Ohio State's Big Ten title probability up 8 points to 44% in three days. Indiana sits second at 25%, a 19-point gap.
Wellman Hits 31% in MO-02 Despite Court Locking In GOP Map
Wellman gained 8 points in 72 hours as redistricting coverage nationalized the race, drawing donor and volunteer attention to a seat forecasters rate R+5.3.
Nez Reaches 38% in AZ-02 After Poll Shows 2-Point Race
A late-August poll put Crane ahead only 46-44 in a Trump +double-digit district, triggering an 8-point market move for Nez over three days.
Tsarukyan KOs Ruffy, But Title Odds Fall to 6% on Gaethje-Topuria
Prediction markets cut Tsarukyan from 16% to 6% to hold the lightweight belt by year-end, with Kalshi at 9% and Polymarket at 4%.
Tennessee's Undefeated Odds Fall to 9% Despite 3-0 Start
Traders cut the Vols' probability by 16 points in three days, pricing Alabama, LSU, and Texas as near-impossible hurdles for true freshman Faizon Brandon.
Man City Win 5-3 But Top-2 Odds Drop 20 Points in Three Days
City's EPL Top 2 implied probability fell from 78% to 58% in 72 hours despite the Sunderland win, with Kalshi and Polymarket diverging by 15 points.
Manchester City's Top 4 Odds Halved Despite Perfect 5-0 Start
City lead the Premier League on 15 points from five games, yet their Top 4 probability fell 46 points in 72 hours, driven by competitive repricing across rival clubs.
Murphy's NC-03 Win Probability Falls 9 Points With No Clear Catalyst
Murphy holds 79% in a R+16.8 district with a 9-to-1 fundraising edge over Smith, yet markets have sold off steadily for three days.
Strickland Drops to 60% After Imavov Title Shot Confirmed
Imavov's confirmed challenge repriced the middleweight market to its tightest gap yet. He now sits at 33%, up 10 points, with no third contender above 8%.
Florida Democrats' 10-Seat Chances Triple Despite DeSantis Redistricting
The 10-seat implied probability jumped from 6% to 17% in three days, even as courts have shown reluctance to redraw maps this close to an election.
Jon Bonck Drops 8 Points in TX-38 With No Local Threat
Bonck falls from 93% to 85% in a Solid R district. His opponent has raised just $67K and no scandal has surfaced, pointing to national repricing.
Texas Is No. 1 but Markets Give Them a Coin-Flip Chance of Missing CFP
Kalshi prices Texas at 34% for a top-4 seed, Polymarket at 61%. The 27-point gap opened after their comeback win over Ohio State pushed the composite from 38% to 48%.
Eight GOP Candidates Split LA-05 as Republican Odds Fall to 88%
Cook still rates LA-05 'Solid R,' but markets dropped 9 points after Democrats unified behind Antonio Wilson of Tallulah.
Rodgers Retirement Sits at 10% as Next-Team Market Logs 7x Volume Day
$106K traded on Sep 24 in Rodgers's Next Team market, 7.29x the daily baseline. Pittsburgh holds at 90% despite his May retirement pledge.
Walberg Drops 8 Points in MI-05 Despite R+21 Forecast
Walberg's implied probability fell from 94% to 86% in three days, with Kalshi pricing him 15 points below Polymarket and no public challenger on record.
Gosar's AZ-09 Win Probability Falls 9 Points in 3 Days With No Catalyst
Cook rates AZ-09 'Solid R' and Gosar holds a 12-to-1 cash advantage over Sterbinsky, yet markets repriced him from 95% to 86% in three days.
Bill Graves Endorsement Triples Kansas Senate Betting Volume
Trading hit $146K on Sep 24, 3.3x the weekly norm. Marshall leads at 68% but has been outraised by Hamilton on total receipts.
Moolenaar's 22-to-1 Cash Edge Locks Up MI-02 at 98%
Benjamin Ambrose has $85K against Moolenaar's $1.9M with six weeks out. No outside Democratic spending has materialized to close the gap.
Falcons' NFC South Odds Triple to 18% on Packers Blowout
Atlanta jumped from 6% to 18% in three days after a 35-14 win over Green Bay, yet a 34-3 home loss to Carolina two weeks prior still shadows the move.
Dueling Court Orders on Missouri Maps Cut Onder's MO-03 Odds to 86%
State and federal courts have issued conflicting orders on which congressional map Missouri will use, pushing the Republican implied probability down 8 points in three days.
Tom Dyas Reaches 51% in Kelowna Mayor Race With Forum Ten Days Out
Dyas gained 12 points in three days as vote-splitting arithmetic and a confirmed three-candidate field push him past the coin-flip threshold.
Ken Sim Rebounds to 38% in Vancouver Mayor Race After 23% Low
Sim gained 15 points in three days with no new polling to explain the move, suggesting traders are doubting the progressive consolidation thesis.
Phil Scott's Vermont Governor Odds Fall to 82% After Democrats Unite
Scott drops 9 points in three days after Amanda Janoo's primary win and a party unity rally. A July poll already showed his approval at 51%, down from 61%.
Flores Falls to 17% in TX-34 Despite R+10 Map as He Scrubs Trump
Eric Flores dropped 8 percentage points in three days. The only public poll shows Gonzalez leading 45-42 in a district redistricting built for Republicans.
Vikings Playoff Odds Hit 62% After 9-3 Win Raises Offensive Questions
Minnesota jumped 8 percentage points in three days after going 2-0, but a scoreless Week 2 touchdown column keeps the ceiling debate open.
Pete Sessions Drops 8 Points in TX-17 Despite a $9,000 Opponent
Sessions fell from 95% to 86% in three days with no local catalyst. Forecasters still give him a 98.4% win probability in the R+21 district.
Malkovich's Venice Win Halved Norton's Supporting Actor Odds
Norton fell from 20% to 10% in 72 hours, not from a rival in his own category. Giamatti now leads Supporting Actor at 37–39%.
DCCC Targets FL-22, Pushing Dandiya to 52% in Prediction Markets
The DCCC added FL-22 to its competitive list after Dandiya's 68.6% primary win, lifting her odds 10 points to 52% against Casey Askar.
Stelson Leads Perry by 3 Points, But Her Market Odds Fell 8 Points
A new Franklin & Marshall poll puts Stelson up 3 points in PA-10, yet traders cut her win probability from 86% to 78% in three days.
Alex Saab's Guilty Plea Pushes Maduro's Google Top 5 Odds to 54%
The Sep 15 money laundering conviction is the third Maduro-linked legal event in nine months. It is the first to push him past 50% on the year-end list.
LaLota Sits at 85% in Prediction Markets While Forecasters Peg Him
Kalshi and Polymarket price LaLota at 85%, up 9 points in three days. Call the Map's model holds at 69% on a predicted R+2.9 margin with one poll on record.
Likud Jumps 8 Points to 37% as Israeli Opposition Fractures
Likud climbed from 29% to 37% in three days while Eisenkot's Yashar holds 62%. Opposition infighting among Golan, Bennett, and Lieberman is driving the repricing.
India's Ebola Probability Falls to 11% After 11,000 Travelers Screened
Zero detections across nearly 11,000 screened arrivals drove a 21-point drop. The DRC outbreak has now crossed 6,000 confirmed cases.
Vargas Slips to 88% in CA-52 Despite 22-to-1 Fundraising Edge
The 8-point drop over three days traces to a single platform showing 79% while Polymarket holds at 96%, with no polling or scandal behind it.
Norcross Market Odds Fall 9 Points Despite 99% Forecast Consensus
Call the Map rates Norcross at 99.3% with a D+28.4 margin, but his prediction market price fell from 96% to 88% in three days, creating an 11-point model-market gap.
Republicans Privately Retreat From Georgia, Lifting Democrats' Core Four
A Dallas donor slide deck omitted Georgia's GOP nominee entirely. Markets jumped 10 points in three days, with Ossoff now leading Collins in available polls.
SC Senate Blocks Redistricting, Lifting Democratic 2-Seat Odds to 28%
The SC Senate rejected a Trump-backed map redraw on Sept. 22, locking in Clyburn's district and opening a credible path to a second Democratic seat.
Katy Perry Calls Trudeau 'Love of My Life,' Engagement Odds Fall to 14%
Perry's romantic declaration pushed engagement odds down, not up. Bettors now price a proposal before year-end at 14%, with 98 days left on the clock.
Cooke Leads WI-03 Polls, but Her Win Probability Fell 10 Points
Prediction markets cut Cooke's WI-03 win probability to 72% despite her 50-46 polling lead, as traders reprice the district's R+7.4 partisan baseline.
PQ Leads Quebec Polls at 27%, Yet Markets Price a 92% Win
Vote-splitting among CAQ, PLQ, and PCQ converts PQ's narrow plurality into a near-certain seat majority under Quebec's first-past-the-post rules.
Trump Endorsement Flags as Liability as Feely Falls to 20% in AZ-01
Feely dropped 10 points in three days on prediction markets. Analysts cite his Trump backing as a risk with independents who register in high numbers across AZ-01.
Ciro Gomes Falls to Underdog as Ceará Poll Shows Dead Heat
An Atlas/Focus survey (Sept. 21) erased Ciro's five-point August lead, putting both candidates at ~48%. Markets moved 14 points in three days.
Chambliss Vaults to 19% After LSU Upset, Junior Class Hits 40%
Ole Miss QB's 363-yard, 3-TD win over No. 7 LSU pushed the Junior class up 8 points; Chambliss posted the steepest individual weekly jump among all tracked candidates.
Moskowitz Hits 70% in FL-25 as School-Safety Ad and J Street Cash Roll
A Parkland-focused TV ad and a $3M J Street commitment drove the 10-point jump. Cook Political Report still calls FL-25 a toss-up.
Utah Is 3-0 With a +118 Margin, Yet Undefeated Odds Fell to 16%
Traders sold Utah's undefeated contract 8 points as Big 12 play opens Sept. 26 at Iowa State, a 10-4 team that won the 2024 Big 12 Championship.
Bohannan Leads IA-01 Polls 40-35 as Markets Price Her at 82%
A July Bullfinch poll gives Bohannan a 5-point lead over Miller-Meeks, and her $700K cash edge has traders pricing her at 82% to flip the seat.
Gillingham Rebounds to 63% as 13-Candidate Field Splits Opposition
Traders reversed a drop to 46% after concluding vote-splitting favors the incumbent. Klein's rocky entry signals no challenger is consolidating.
Hurricane Lowell Hit Hawaii. Why Is the Market at 26%?
Lowell struck Kauai and Lanai in early September, killing two and disabling a critical port. The landfall market still prices YES at only 26%.
Vikings Jump to NFC North Favorites at 33% After 2-0 Division Start
Minnesota beat Green Bay and Chicago to go 2-0 in division play; a Caleb Williams hamstring injury dropped Chicago to last in divisional odds.
Rennes Top 4 Odds Hit 48% the Week They Lost 4-0 to Lyon
PSG sits sixth and Marseille has lost four straight, giving Rennes a 10-point probability jump to 48% despite their worst result of the season.
Julianne Moore Drops 9 Points in Best Actress Market After Mixed TIFF
Moore falls from 70% to 62% in three days. Critics praised her work in 'The Debut' but called the Jesse Eisenberg-directed film tonally incoherent.
Michigan Senate Volume Jumps 7x as El-Sayed Unity Push Lifts Odds to 72%
On Sept 22, $194K traded across 1,393 trades, the market's largest single day in 29 sessions, as Democratic consolidation drew fresh trader attention.
Notre Dame CFP Top 4 Chances Hit 60% With No Conference Title Fallback
Notre Dame is the only projected top 4 seed without a conference title game. Kalshi prices them at 64%, Polymarket at 56%.