Market News & Analysis
Auto-generated, data-driven articles on significant prediction market moves and cross-platform arbitrage opportunities. 1,704 published · page 1 of 18.
Who Will Win Best Actress at the Oscars? Latest News
Moore rose about 9 points to 84% on Kalshi while Inde Navarrette fell 6 points to 11%, ahead of Jan. 21 Oscar nominations.
Who Will Become the Next Prime Minister of Sweden? Polls and Latest News
Down about 15 percentage points in three days, as the Centre Party gave S and M until Friday to present a "totalpaket" ahead of the Nov. 17 report.
Who Will Win Nigeria's Presidential Election? Polls and Latest News
Atiku's price is 7% on Nov 13, up 5 points from a 2% low, while the ADC's appeal and stay application remained pending.
Will the BoE Raise Rates in December? Hold Bets Fall to 22%
"No change" fell 36 percentage points to 22% in three days after the 8-1 hike to 4% and Lombardelli's refusal to rule out December.
Will Bitcoin Hit $50K Before $100K? Slide Below $70K Lifts Odds to 14%
The 50,000 First contract rose 4 percentage points in three days as ETF outflows, hot CPI and Huang's Nvidia exit pushed BTC to a 12-week low.
Why The Odyssey's Best Picture Odds Fell on 4x Normal Volume
$85,751 traded Nov. 12 against a $20,745 daily average as The Odyssey slid to 53%, two days after Universal's making-of documentary premiered.
RBNZ December Hike Odds Hit 88% as Breman Calls Chance 'High'
The 25 bp increase contract climbed about 12 percentage points in three days, from 76% to 88%. Governor Breman earlier said all committee members see more hikes as likely.
Hsinchu County Polls Split: Cheng Chao-fang Still Favored After Nov 12
Era Poll Center has Cheng up 8.3 points, while a rival poll has Hsu up 6.9. Cheng's market price rose from 60% to 65% by Nov 13.
Where Will Josh Sweat Sign Next? Latest News
Arizona reportedly held to a second-round ask while Dallas offered a third, and the stay outcome rose from about 75% to 94% in three days.
Will the Fed Hike in December? Latest News
The Fed hiked in September and held in October, so one Dec 8-9 decision settles the sequence. October core CPI printed 0.3%, Waller's 50bp trigger.
Big Walk's Best Independent Game Odds Fall to 41%
Down about 6 points in three days, as 19 IGF jurors rejected generative AI and House House said it used LLMs "sparingly" for bug fixes.
Will Fed Funds Top 4.75% by End-2027? Odds Hit 44% After Hot CPI
The 4.75%+ outcome rose about 24 percentage points in three days, a period that included a third hot core CPI print and Goldman's March 2027 hike call.
Will Alito Retire Before 2028? He Says No Plans Through June 2027
The market fell about 13 points after Alito spoke two days after Democrats flipped the Senate in the Nov. 3 midterms.
Jensen Huang Resigns as Nvidia CEO: How Prediction Markets Priced His Exit
Kalshi and Polymarket odds of Huang leaving jumped from about 16% to near 90% on Wednesday evening, then hit 99% Thursday morning when Nvidia named CFO Colette Kress interim CEO. Kalshi has since settled 15 of its 16 deadline contracts Yes.
Will the Fed Raise Interest Rates Again in 2026? Latest News
The 2026 hike market rose from 80% after core CPI rose 0.3% for a third month against a 0.2% consensus, and CME priced a December hike near 88%.
Where Will Brian Thomas Jr. Play Next? Latest News
Jacksonville rose about 38 percentage points to 98% after the Jaguars kept Thomas through the Nov. 10 deadline despite interest from four teams.
Will Oil Be the Top Energy Source in 2030? Traders Say 66%
OPEC projects 113.3 mb/d of oil demand in 2030, while the IEA sees a plateau near 105.5 mb/d and a 2.6 mb/d drop in 2026.
GPT Astra 6.1+ by November 15? Odds Fall After Missed Launch
The Nov. 15 contract fell from 58% to 12% in three days as a reported early-November launch passed without an OpenAI announcement.
Will Apple Be the Largest Company in November? Nvidia Slides to Third
Apple climbs from 87% to 95% after Nvidia's board met over Jensen Huang's future and Nvidia fell to about $3.83T, behind Apple and Microsoft.
Clancy's Google Most Searched Odds Slip Despite Retrial Ruling
Down from 32% three days earlier and about 41% a week ago, after a Nov 9 ruling denied her double jeopardy motion. Haaland sits at 13%.
Which AI Will Be Best at the End of 2026? Latest News
Gemini rose about 7 percentage points in three days after Google's Nov 10 Carbon launch, but Anthropic's Nov 9 models have no confirmed Arena placement.
Chiefs' Chances of Landing Kyle Pitts Fall to 2% as Deadline Passes
Kansas City slid about 6 points in three days as Atlanta kept Pitts through the Nov. 10 deadline, a day after dealing Jessie Bates to Jacksonville.
Will the SNB Change Rates in December? Hold Odds Slip After CPI
No Change fell about 8 points to 84% in three days as Swiss inflation hit a near three-year high and Schlegel left negative rates on the table.
Will the Colts Trade Jonathan Taylor? Latest News
Indianapolis rose about 70 percentage points to 98% after the Colts rejected second-round offers and let the Nov. 10 deadline pass.
Who Will Be the Next Prime Minister of Spain? Polls and Latest News
Down from 92% in three days, as a DYM poll shows PP and PSOE both slipping and a general strike hits the 29 November campaign.
Ho Hsin-chun's Taichung Mayor Odds Fall to 18% as Polls Conflict
Down about 7 points in three days. A KMT bribery accusation and an AI-simulated poll landed Nov 11, while real surveys still split on the race.
Draisaitl's 40-Goal Price Hits 91% After 18 Goals in 19 Games
He needs 22 more goals in about 63 games after a two-goal night against the Rangers on Nov. 9 lifted his 40-goal price 17 percentage points.
Who Will Win the Ljubljana Mayoral Election? Polls and Latest News
Ninamedia cut Janković's lead over Mesec from 13.6 points in October, and Mesec's win price rose 7 points ahead of the 15 Nov vote.
Victoria election polls: Coalition leads Labor 57–43, market at 96%
Coalition up about 8 points in three days as DemosAU puts Labor's primary vote at 18% ahead of the 28 November vote.
Who Will Be the Next White House Press Secretary? Latest News
Gidley climbed from 2% to 11% on Polymarket and sits at 17% on Kalshi, second to Ferguson, as a Fox News Digital report reshuffled the field.
How Low Will Bitcoin Get in 2026? Latest News
BTC hit $72,727 after October CPI printed 0.4% vs 0.3% and December hike odds neared 90%, yet the $70K dip contract fell 6 percentage points.
Anna Kelly's Press Secretary Odds Halve as Fox Names Ferguson
Kelly fell about 7 points to 8% in three days, after Trump offered the job to Dana White and called it a joke, and Fox reported Trump leans toward a man.
Will the Bank of Canada Hold or Hike in December 2026? Latest News
No Change fell about 11 percentage points in three days as the Bank posted its Dec. 9 announcement page and traders weighed another move.
Will Thomas Massie Leave the GOP? Odds Double After 'Suicide Pact' Jab
Massie's contract rose from 7% to 14% in three days after his Hegseth impeachment push stalled and Axios reported "draft Massie" 2028 talk.
Where Will Daniel Jones Play Next? Latest News
Indianapolis rose from 75% to 97% after the Nov. 10 deadline passed and Minnesota acquired Kirk Cousins from Las Vegas instead.
Who Will Win the Spain General Election? Polls and Latest News
The PSOE climbed from 12% to 16% after 8-11 November polls cut the PP's lead. One survey put the Socialists first, but the average still favors the PP.
Will the NASDAQ-100 finish positive in 2026? Latest News
Kalshi's 25,249.86-or-above contract rose from 77% to 82% on Nov 11 as Nasdaq-100 futures gained about 1.4%, a day after hot CPI.
Will OpenAI Announce Glasses in 2026? Speaker Comes First
Glasses fell from 12% to 6% in three days as reporting puts a Jony Ive speaker first in 2027 and glasses production near 2028.
Dollar Hits 15-Month High on Hot US CPI: Will USD/BRL Reach 5.75?
Core CPI rose 0.3% vs 0.2% expected, sending the dollar to R$5.5860. The 5.75 trigger now sits about 2.9% above that close.
Will the U.S. Confirm Aliens Before 2027? Chances Slip as NDAA Stalls
Kalshi's "Before Jan 20, 2029" contract fell about 6 points to 16% as the Pentagon's UAP files confirmed nothing and NDAA conference ran short on time.
Hegseth Out by Nov. 30? Odds Fall to 4% After House Impeachment Vote
The contract fell about 20 points in three days after Trump backed Hegseth and the House sent Massie's eight impeachment articles to committee.
Will October PPI Top X? Latest News
The contract rose about 12 percentage points in three days, after September PPI jumped 1.3% against a 0.6% forecast.
Where Will Josh Downs Play Next? Latest News
Indianapolis rose from 9% to 50% in three days. Kansas City also got a 2027 seventh-round pick and lost Xavier Worthy to a hamstring injury.
Which Companies Will Officially Announce an IPO This Year? Latest News
Anthropic rose about 8 points to 98% after an amended S-1 put 825M shares at $70-$78, with pricing expected Nov. 18.
Which Leaders Will Leave Office in 2026? Latest News
Kalshi's Ramaphosa contract fell 14 percentage points to 4% as he and ANC leaders denied he raised stepping down after the vote.
Which NFL Players Will Be Traded? Latest News
Jones's Kalshi trade contract fell 32 points to 20% after the Colts told him he would not be moved before the Nov. 10 deadline.
Will the Fed Hike Interest Rates in December? Latest News
"No change" fell 18 points to 4% in three days after October core CPI rose 0.3%, the level Waller set for considering a 50bp hike.
Who Will Design Taylor Swift's Wedding Dress? Latest News
Dior's contract slipped 5 points in three days despite the house's own confirmation. Official wedding photos remain unreleased.
Will Tony Pollard Be Traded? Titans Reportedly Say No
Tennessee's next-team contract rose 8 percentage points, from 76% to 84%, as the Titans reportedly shop Calvin Ridley instead.
Will the Fed Hike in December? Waller Floats 50bp, Odds Hit 87%
Waller said he'd weigh 50bp if core CPI runs 0.3% or hotter, while CME futures still price a 25bp December hike at better than 80%.
Netanyahu out by...? Latest News
Herzog gave Eisenkot the mandate on 67 recommendations to Netanyahu's 46, but his bloc holds 48 seats, short of the 61 needed to govern.
CPI in October 2026: Latest News
Consensus sits at exactly 0.3%, which resolves No. Gasoline fell from $4.41 to $4.18 in October, and the contract fell from 14% to 7%.
Who Will Be the Lead Bank in Anthropic's IPO? Latest News
Goldman's contract gained about 6 points in three days after Anthropic set a $70-$80 range backed by $26B in supplier anchor orders.
Lisnard's 2027 Odds Slip to 13% Despite 3.41x Volume and RTL Poll
$990,051 traded on 9 Nov, against a $290,227 daily average, as Riner declared a candidacy and Breton left the door open to a run.
GCR's Chances of Appearing on UpOnly Fall to 2% as 2026 Runs Out
Traders cut GCR from 11% to 2% in three days while UpOnly's reported Coinbase-funded return has under two months to produce a guest.
Conservative Chances of Winning Next UK Election Jump as Tories Pass
The Tory price rose 11 percentage points to 26% in three days as the Telegraph tracker put them 0.07 points ahead of Reform. Labour still leads by 7.
Will Khalil Mack Be Traded to the Bears? Chargers Say He Stays
Chicago fell 26 percentage points, from 36% to 10%, as the Chargers fell to 0-8 and Harbaugh and Mack both said Mack is staying put.
Ravens Tell Derrick Henry He Stays, Vikings Trade Odds Hit 2%
Minnesota fell from 12% to 2% in three days after Schefter reported Nov. 7 that Baltimore has no plan to move Henry, who the 4-5 Ravens need.
Will Alito Retire Before 2029? Chances Hit 53% Despite His Denial
Alito's resignation price rose 11 percentage points in three days after he said he is committed through the term ending June 2027.
Who Will Win the New Zealand General Election? Polls and Latest News
Leads of 139 votes in Wairarapa and 456 in Hamilton East face roughly 400,000 special votes before official results on 27 Nov.
Dec. 12 Shutdown Odds Rebound Ahead of Crammed Lame Duck Session
Kalshi's Dec. 12 shutdown Yes rose from 26% to 40% in three days; Congress has passed none of its 12 FY2027 spending bills.
Republican Wins 2028 With a Blue Congress? Market Puts It at 15%
The contract rose about 8 points after Nov. 3, while the Democratic Sweep held near 65% as of Nov. 8.
Will Texas Gas Drop Below $2.30? Chances Fall to 2% Despite Oil Plunge
Texas pumps averaged $3.58 on Nov 5-6, about $1.28 above $2.30, even as Brent fell roughly 13% on the week to $98.32 on Iran peace hopes.
Will Joe Ryan Be Traded? Twins Decline $13M Option, Minnesota at 72%
Minnesota fell about 14 points in three days after the Twins declined Ryan's 2027 mutual option. He heads to arbitration, not free agency.
Who Will Win the Nitto ATP Singles Finals? Latest News
Fritz held two match points before Alcaraz won in Paris on Nov. 6, handing Rafael Jodar the eighth Turin spot. His market fell from 16% to 2%.
Who Will Win the 2026 Pro Basketball Playoff Qualifiers? Latest News
Oklahoma City rose about 10 percentage points in three days, from 86% to 96%, and held Washington to the NBA's lowest score this season.
Who Will Lead FBS in Rushing Yards This Season? Latest News
Bishop crossed 1,000 yards vs. Kentucky on Nov. 7, yet his market price dropped about 10 points in three days while he sits roughly 6th nationally.
Nottingham Forest's relegation odds halve to 14% after Man City win
Forest's relegation price fell 14 points in three days after a 3-1 home win over Man City lifted them to 16th on 9 points, ahead of Man United.
Why Is Arsenal Title-Market Volume Surging? City Lose Again
$127,628 traded on Nov 7, 4.38x the daily average, as Arsenal beat Hull 1-0 and Man City fell 3-1 at Forest to trail by six points.
Who Will Be the Top Artist on Spotify in 2026? Latest News
Up about 8 percentage points in three days, Bad Bunny also ranks second on Spotify's all-time list. Spotify Wrapped in December decides the title.
Doncic's Scoring Title Odds Hit 74% After 53-Point Night
Doncic's 53 against Portland lifted his average to 40.1 PPG, 10.2 clear of the field, and his Polymarket price rose from 59% in three days.
Which Companies Will the US Take a Stake in This Year? Latest News
Neros rose about 69 points in three days after the drone maker said a conditional $450M OSC loan gives the Pentagon a small, non-voting stake.
Puffpaw FDV Above $50M Hits 92% After Nov 6 $VAPE TGE Date
The $50M tier gained about 72 points in three days after a $VAPE contract went live. It resolves No if no tradable token exists by Dec 31, 2026.
Vikings' Breece Hall Odds Fall to 7% as Jets Say He Stays
Minnesota slid from 20% to 7% in three days after Aaron Glenn, Frank Reich and Adam Schefter all signaled Hall stays in New York.
Will Oil Hit a Record by Dec. 31? Odds Fall After Midterm Crash
Crude's steepest weekly drop in decades left WTI near $90, about $57 below the $147.27 CME record. Traders cut December 31 odds to 8% from 14%.
Will August Be Bitcoin's Best Month of 2026? Latest News
Spot ETFs drew $3.52B in August, and April's +11.8% ranks second. Only November or December can still overtake it.
Which companies will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode? Latest News
Peacock fell 7 points in three days. Its reported AI work is a Wolf Games mystery and an Andy Cohen avatar feed, not scripted drama.
Core CPI in October 2026: Latest News
Kalshi's 'Above 0.1%' strike fell 11 percentage points in three days to 82%, while FactSet consensus and TD Securities both sit above 0.1%.
Bitcoin's Odds of Beating Gold and S&P 500 Halve to 6% in 2026
Bitcoin is down roughly 13-15% in 2026 with eight weeks left. It fell with stocks in the Nov. 5 rout, then slipped again after a hot jobs report.
Extended FDV above X one day after launch? Latest News
1 Xpoint = 4.2857 XTEN sends 300M of 1B tokens to users. A $300M FDV needs about $0.30 per XTEN, and no launch date has been set.
Who Will Be the 2028 Republican Presidential Nominee? Polls and Latest News
He called the GOP's Nov. 3 midterm losses an "extinction-level event" and said he'll be "a free man" after Jan. 5, when his term ends.
Ted Cruz's Supreme Court Odds Fall to 4% as Alito Rules Out Retiring
Cruz fell about 7 percentage points from 11% in three days. Democrats take the Senate on Jan. 3, 2027, closing the lame-duck confirmation window.
S&P 500 Falls 4.36% on AI Rout; Positive-Year Odds Slip to 86%
The index closed Nov 5 at 7,353.73, about 508 points above the 6,845.50 line, after midterm data-center pledges hit AI stocks.
Will October 2026 Jobs Be Above X? Latest News
Kalshi's Above 0 contract rose 9 percentage points from 81% to 90% as ADP printed +86K and the Dow Jones payrolls consensus settled at +59K.
Anthropic IPO Below $1.25T? Volume Doubles as Investors Balk at $1.5T
$152,420 traded Nov. 5 vs. a $72,956 daily average (2.09x) as WSJ reported investor pushback and a $2.5T Nasdaq rout.
Where Will Tyreek Hill Play Next? Latest News
Kansas City fell about 13 percentage points in three days as Yahoo and ESPN's Graziano cited Rashee Rice's return and Hill's knee rehab.
Colom Leads Hyde-Smith by 1,764 Votes; Senate Market Prices Him at 97%
Up to 21,600 absentee and affidavit ballots remain uncounted with over 95% reported, and a legal fight looms over the Mississippi Senate result.
Will Trump Be Out Before 2027? Trading Jumps 4.65x After Midterms
$386,963 traded on Nov. 4 vs. an $83,135 daily average, as Democrats' House and Senate wins revived impeachment and 25th Amendment talk.
Who Will Win the Maine Senate Race? Polls and Latest News
Collins conceded early Nov. 4 with Jackson near 52-53% in a partial count; his Kalshi contract rose about 30 points from 68%. The AP had not called it.
NY-17 House winner? Latest News
Lawler conceded with about 57% of the vote counted, Westchester ballots still untallied, and no AP or Decision Desk HQ call.
Who Will Win the Spain General Election? Polls and Latest News
PSOE slid about 6 points in three days as post-crash polls put PP 4 to 7 points ahead and Óscar Puente quit the Transport Ministry.
Who Will Win the Alaska Senate Race? Polls and Latest News
Peltola rose about 16 points in three days, from 72% to 88%, while the final NYT/Siena poll showed a closer 48-46 race.
Why California Governor Market Volume Jumped 10x on Election Day
Kalshi's Republican contract traded $510,142 on Nov. 3 vs. a $50,812 daily average, as final polls showed Becerra up 22 to 27 points.
Who Will Control Congress After the 2026 Midterms? Polls and Latest News
The sweep contract gained about 15 points in three days as Reuters/Ipsos showed the generic-ballot lead slipping from D+11 to D+8.
Blue Tsunami Odds Hit 70% as Volume Jumps 2.6x on Midterm Eve
Nov 2 volume hit $86,671 vs. a $33,000 daily average as final NYT/Siena Senate polls showed Democrats ahead in seven races.
Will Unemployment Be Above 4.1% in October? Traders Say 68%
September's 4.2% rate already clears the threshold, so a flat Nov 6 print resolves Yes. Jobless claims below 200,000 are the main risk.
Who Will Win Best Actor at the 2027 Oscars? Latest News
The market rose 7 percentage points in three days, from 41%, after his Venice Volpi Cup win and ahead of the film's Nov 5-6 US opening.
Chances Democrats Win 250+ House Seats Slip as Volume Doubles
Kalshi's House seat-count market traded $104,234 on Nov. 2, 2.1x its $49,568 daily average, as final models clustered near 240 seats.
College Football Big 12 Championship Winner: Latest News
Utah moved up about 10 percentage points after a 49-25 win at Cincinnati left it 8-0 and the Big 12's only unbeaten team before the BYU game.
Who Will Win the Iowa Senate Election? Polls and Latest News
Turek rose from about 44% to a record 52% on Kalshi on Nov. 2 as NYT/Siena showed him up 48-47, though GrayHouse had Hinson ahead by 2.