Market News & Analysis
Auto-generated, data-driven articles on significant prediction market moves and cross-platform arbitrage opportunities. 1,331 published · page 2 of 14.
Jackson Leads Georgia Governor Polls but Bettors Cut His Odds to 33%
Bettors dropped Jackson from 43% to 33% in three days despite a Rasmussen poll showing him up 48%-45%. A $5M labor-settlement story may explain the gap.
RCP Calls Texas Governor Race a Toss-Up as Hinojosa Hits 29%
A ReconMR/Siena poll showing Hinojosa up four points prompted RCP's toss-up call, the first for a Texas governor's race in the modern era.
Ohio State Big Ten Title Odds Fall to 38% After Blowing 20-Point Lead
Buckeyes fell from 50% to 38% in three days after surrendering 24 unanswered Q4 points to No. 4 Texas in a 24-23 road loss.
GOP Sweep Draws 4.4x Normal Volume but Stays at 10%
$886K traded on Republicans Sweep on Sept. 22, 4.4x the prior week's daily average. Sellers absorbed most of the flow; price moved just 2 points.
Meloni's Re-Election Odds Drop 13 Points After School Veil Ban
Prediction markets cut Meloni from 52% to 39% in three days as her coalition polls below 30% among under-35 voters, the fastest-growing share of the 2027 electorate.
Bengals' AFC North Probability Hits 44% After 2-0 Start
Cincinnati's division-winner probability jumped 14 points in three days. The Houston defensive performance, a 20-6 road win, drove most of the repricing.
Wild Horse Nine Climbs to 44% for Best Original Screenplay
McDonagh's script jumps 10 points in three days after a 13-minute Venice ovation and TIFF critical consensus, with La bola negra the nearest threat.
Buccaneers' NFC South Odds Fall to 25% After 0-2 Start
Tampa Bay dropped from 41% to 25% on Kalshi and Polymarket after losing to two sub-.500 opponents. Atlanta is also 0-2, keeping the Bucs alive.
Van Beats Pantoja on Scorecards, Flyweight Title Odds Hit 96%
A unanimous decision at UFC 331 erased the injury-stoppage asterisk from Van's first title win. Kalshi now prices him at 96%, Polymarket at 97%.
Azaroff Endorses Fry, Cutting Allam to 6% in Vancouver Mayor Race
Allam fell 11 points in three days after Azaroff endorsed Fry. Sim also dropped to 34%, the first time he has been priced as an underdog this cycle.
Jeff Leiper's Win Probability Halved in Three Days on Prediction Markets
Leiper fell from 17% to 8% in 72 hours as Ottawa's mayoral race consolidates around Sutcliffe, with no public polling to contradict the market's verdict.
Court Locks GOP Map in MO-02, Cutting Wellman's Odds to 22%
The 8th Circuit blocked a return to old district lines on Sep 21. Wellman's probability fell 8 points in three days; Wagner now holds a ~78% implied edge.
Turek Leads Hinson by 8 Points in Iowa Senate Marist Poll
A Sept. 22 Marist poll shows Turek 50%, Hinson 42% among Iowa registered voters. Anti-Trump motivation outpaces pro-Trump support 43% to 22%.
Cash Gap Widens as Lawrence's MI-07 Odds Fall 10 Points
Democratic implied probability slid from 66% to 56% in three days. Barrett held $2.8M and no primary opponents while Lawrence survived a three-way contest.
Sam Rockwell's Best Supporting Actor 2027 Odds Quadruple to 16%
Rockwell's implied probability jumped from 4% to 16% in three days with no confirmed project. His 2018 win in the same category is the likely anchor for the move.
Vikings Hit 56% Playoff Odds at 2-0, but a #17 Power Ranking Says
Minnesota's playoff probability rose 9 points to 56% after a 9-3 win over Chicago, yet all four NFC North teams carry playoff-caliber grades.
Haaland Hits 58% to Crack Google's Top 5 Most Searched in 2026
A buzz cut, a tribute to Norway's King Harald V, and World Cup meme traffic pushed Haaland's implied probability up 12 percentage points in three days.
PA-03 Democratic Nominee Hits 96% as No GOP Challenger Emerges
The contract climbed 8 points in three days. Cook rates the seat safe Democratic and no Republican has filed a credible challenge for November 2026.
Saliba Injury Drops Arsenal's Premier League Title Odds From 56% to 48%
A 3-0 Brighton defeat and Saliba's World Cup back injury hit Arsenal harder than four wins gained. Manchester City close to within 9 points.
Sánchez Holds 95% Odds in CA-41 Despite R+3 Lean
Prediction markets price Linda Sánchez at 95% in CA-41. Republican Mitch Clemmons has raised $2,000 total, giving Sánchez an 800-to-1 fundraising edge.
Democrat in LA-05 Calls Win 'Possible' as GOP Hits 96%
Cook rates LA-05 'Solid R' and Kalshi prices the GOP at 98%. The Democratic endorsee framed a win as something he merely believes is possible.
Tsarukyan Sits at 13% for UFC Lightweight Title After UFC 331 KO
Tsarukyan jumped from 3% to 13% after knocking out Ruffy at UFC 331, but Gaethje may sidestep him for a Topuria rematch, capping the odds climb.
Ethiopia Ebola Odds Fall 18 Points as DRC Cases Top 200
Ethiopia dropped from 54% to 36% in three days. DRC cases crossed 200 per week while the deployed vaccine has no proven efficacy against the circulating Bundibugyo strain.
Strickland Climbs to 66% After Imavov Named Title Challenger
Locking in Imavov collapsed a field of hypothetical opponents into one priceable matchup, pushing Strickland up 13 points in 72 hours.
Cooke's WI-03 Win Odds Drop 10 Points Despite $814K Fundraising Lead
Democrat probability fell from 82% to 72% in three days. Van Orden's incumbency and the district's rightward trend are repricing the race.
John Malkovich Wins Venice Best Actor, Jumps to 39% for 2027 Oscar
His Wild Horse Nine win at Venice pushed him 12 points to 39% in three days, making him the first clear frontrunner in the 2027 Best Actor race.
PQ Hits 92% in Markets Despite a Four-Way Race in Quebec Polls
PQ leads Quebec polls at 27% with CAQ and PLQ at 23% each. Markets price a PQ win at 92%, up 9 points in three days.
Ohio Senate Special Election Sees 6x Volume Spike as Brown Leads Husted
Trading hit $341K on Sept. 21, six times the daily baseline. Brown holds a 19-point edge, with 836 trades confirming broad participation across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Brewers Clinch First 2026 Division Title, Murphy's Three-Peat Odds Hit
Milwaukee's division clinch pushed Murphy's NL Manager of the Year probability up 14 points in three days. Weiss sits at 17% as the Braves crater to 39-62.
The Black Ball Drops to 10% as The Odyssey Claims 58% by Default
No news triggered the fall. The Black Ball lost 9 percentage points in three days as The Odyssey absorbed share across the entire Best Original Score field.
Tennessee's Undefeated Odds Fall to 5% Despite 3-0 Start
Vols dropped from 28% to 5% in three days. Wins over Furman and Kennesaw State moved the needle nowhere; Texas and Alabama did.
Cannan Rebounds to 56% in Kelowna Mayor Race After Debate Dip
Cannan clawed back 11 points in under a week after a 13-point post-debate drop, leaving him the frontrunner with four weeks until the October 17 vote.
Mahomes Goes 2-0 After Knee Surgery, Chiefs AFC West Odds Hit 60%
Kansas City climbed from 52% to 60% on Kalshi and Polymarket after Mahomes posted 566 yards and 5 TDs, with Kenneth Walker adding 307 rushing yards across two games.
OH-06 Hits 96%: What Does Rulli's $1.1M-to-$1K Edge Tell Us?
No public polls exist for OH-06. Rulli's 99-in-100 forecast rating rests on an R+16 partisan lean and a 1,000-to-1 fundraising gap.
Bolsonaro Hits 47% in Markets as Lula's Welfare Hike Reads as Panic
Polls still show Lula up 38%-33%, but bettors moved Bolsonaro 8 points in 72 hours after a welfare hike, a Rio crime pilot, and a Supreme Court delay.
Ethereum $4,000 Odds Jump 8 Points After Ceiling Analysis
ETH trades at $2,722, needing a 47% rally to hit $4,000. A CryptoCompass stress-test of Standard Chartered's forecast triggered the repricing.
Moskowitz Hits 68% in FL-25 as School-Safety Ad Counters Trump
FL-25 Democratic odds climbed 8 points in 3 days. J Street's $3M spend and Moskowitz's Parkland-tied TV ad are outweighing Trump's Singer endorsement.
Katy Perry Called Trudeau 'the Love of My Life,' but Engagement Odds
Perry's September 2 People interview moved markets 12 points in three days. Bettors still price a 75% chance no proposal arrives before December 31.
LSU SEC Title Odds Halved to 8% After Loss to Kiffin's Former Team
A 32-24 ranked loss at Ole Miss on September 19 cut LSU's SEC title probability from 16% to 8%, with Kalshi pricing the Tigers at 7% and Polymarket at 8%.
Elmano Cuts Ciro's Ceará Lead From 19 to 5 Points in Five Weeks
Three Sept. 18 polls show Elmano at 40-42%, up from 33% in August. Ciro's market odds fell from 63% to 52% in three days.
Kreiss-Tomkins Hits 84% in Alaska Governor Race as Begich Drops Out
Begich's dropout and endorsement pushed JKT to 84%, but an RCV referendum on the same ballot could erase the consolidation advantage markets are pricing in.
Vikings Surge to 34% NFC North Favorite After Caleb Williams Carted Off
Back-to-back wins over Green Bay and Chicago pushed Minnesota to division favorite; Williams left Sunday's 9-3 loss on a cart with a hamstring injury.
KY-02: Guthrie's 627-to-1 Fundraising Edge Prices Republican Win at 96%
Wingfield has raised $7,500 against Guthrie's $4.7M. Kalshi prices a Republican win at 98%, Polymarket at 94%, with margin-of-victory contracts pointing to a 35-plus-point blowout.
49ers' NFC West Odds Hit 43% After 27-7 Rout of Rams
San Francisco's division probability rose 9 points in three days after the Rams blowout, even as a receiver injury and owner Jed York's arrest cloud the outlook.
Mary Miller at 96% in IL-15: What's Behind the 9-Point Market Climb
Prediction markets climbed 9 points to 96% for Miller, with Call the Map projecting a 30-point margin and no DCCC money entering the race.
IL-04 Markets Hit 97% as Forecasters Peg Garcia at 99.4%
Prediction markets jumped 9 points in three days, still trailing forecasters by 2.4 points. Garcia leads Castillo by 19 points in the only public poll.
Bengals' AFC North Probability Jumps to 45%, Matching Baltimore
Cincinnati climbed 10 percentage points in 72 hours. Kalshi shows 44% and Polymarket shows 46%, erasing what had been a clear Ravens lead.
Falcons' NFC South Odds Fall to 7% After 34-3 Panthers Blowout
Atlanta is 0-2 with a combined scoring margin of minus-38. Tua Tagovailoa is the franchise's sixth different starting QB in six seasons.
Van Beats Pantoja in Rematch, Flyweight Title Odds Rise to 86%
Van's dominant UFC 331 win (49-46, 49-47, 50-45) pushed his year-end title probability from 54% to 86%, with Kalshi at 80% and Polymarket at 93%.
Digger's Best Original Screenplay Odds Fall to 20% With No Precursor
The 30% recovery has reversed over three days with zero precursor wins awarded in the category and no confirmed catalyst driving the move.
Messmer Hits 97% in IN-08 as Markets Correct an Underpriced Safe Seat
An 8-point jump in three days reflects district math and a primary opponent who won 6% of the vote, not a new development. No catalyst triggered the move.
Smucker Leads PA-11 at 98.3% While Markets Sit at 96%
Call the Map gives Lloyd Smucker a 98.3% win probability and R+16 margin. Prediction markets price a GOP win at 96%, trailing by two points.
Bills AFC East Probability Jumps 8 Points Before 2-0 Patriots Showdown
Buffalo sits at 72% on Kalshi and Polymarket ahead of Sunday's only unbeaten-vs.-unbeaten divisional matchup, with no roster move driving the shift.
Kylie Jenner and Timothée Chalamet Engagement Odds Hit 20% After World
Odds climbed 8 percentage points in three days following the couple's joint appearance at the 2026 World Cup Final, with Kalshi at 27% and Polymarket at 12%.
Buckhout's NC-01 Odds Fall to 38%, Erasing Most of Her Primary Bounce
Republican odds in NC-01 dropped from 48% to 38% in three days. Davis remains the narrow favorite as no public polls have emerged.
Democrats' Alaska Sweep Odds Hit 68% After Begich Exits Governor Race
Tom Begich's withdrawal unified the Democratic gubernatorial ticket behind Kreiss-Tomkins, pushing combo sweep odds up 14 percentage points in three days to a cycle high.
Fernández's NM-03 Market Price Jumps 8 Points in 3 Days
Markets now price the Democratic hold at 94%, closing the gap with Call the Map's 99-in-100 forecast after traders dismissed Zamora's stock-disclosure attack ad.
Foxx at 88% in NC-05 While Forecasters Say 97%
The market jumped 9 points to 88% but still trails forecasters' 96.5% call. Foxx holds a 34-to-1 cash edge over her Democratic challenger.
FL-24 Hits 96%: Why Gilbert's Odds May Still Be Too Low
FL-24 jumped 8 percentage points in 3 days. The move corrected mispricing in a D+50 seat Cook rates Solid D with no competitive challenger.
Tsarukyan's Title Odds Triple After First-Round KO at UFC 331
His implied probability rose from 5% to 14% in three days. Topuria's 2027 return leaves Tsarukyan as Gaethje's most credible 2026 challenger.
Morgan Stanley Hits 23% in OpenAI IPO Market as Timing Risk Grows
Morgan Stanley gained 8 percentage points in three days. Its rise tracks IPO delay risk, not a real contest for Goldman's left-lead position.
Tinubu Re-Election Odds Fall 8 Points After INEC Locks In 18-Candidate
INEC confirmed 18 presidential candidates on Sep 16; Tinubu's implied probability dropped from 74% to 66%, its lowest recorded level since trading opened.
Malkovich Jumps to Oscar Best Actor Frontrunner After Venice Win
His Venice Best Actor prize for 'Wild Horse Nine' pushed him from 24% to 36% in three days. He has never won an Oscar.
Republican Win Probability in IN-03 Reaches 97% With No Democratic
Prediction markets price Indiana's 3rd District at 97% Republican, up 9 points from an 88% period low, as no Democratic candidate has filed.
Hawaii Hit by Two Hurricanes in 2026, Market Still Prices 14%
The Atlantic confirms two hurricane strikes on Hawaii this year. The prediction market implies an 86% chance it hasn't happened, with Kalshi at 11% and Polymarket at 16%.
Pete Fry Hits 65% After Azaroff Backs Him in Vancouver Mayor Race
Fry surged 32 percentage points after OneCity's Azaroff endorsed him, yet polls still show Ken Sim leading or tied with 34% of voters undecided.
Braves at 39-62 Push Weiss's NL Manager of the Year Odds to 17%
Murphy's Brewers clinched the first division title in baseball, tightening the three-peat narrative that is pulling traders away from Weiss contracts.
Brooks Leads Mackenzie 47-43 in PA-07's Only Poll
PA-07 prediction markets jumped 8 points toward Brooks in 3 days. Mackenzie's $2.94M cash advantage is the strongest counter-signal.
Arsenal Title Odds Fall 9 Points After Brighton Loss and Saliba Injury
Arsenal dropped from 56% to 47% in 72 hours after a 3-0 defeat at Brighton. Saliba's back injury, sustained at the World Cup, has no return date.
Masterson Hits 70% in Kansas Governor Markets Despite Tied Poll
Markets jumped 11 points in three days after a State Fair debate on data centers. The last public poll, taken before the debate, had Holscher up 47-46.
Texas Tech Undefeated Odds Hit 32% Despite Losing QB to NCAA Probe
Red Raiders are now the prediction market favorite for a 2026 undefeated season at 32%, up 9 points in three days, even after QB Brendan Sorsby's departure.
Harlem Doc Hits 24% Oscar Odds After Library of Congress Prize
The $200,000 Lavine/Ken Burns Prize pushed Once Upon a Time in Harlem from 16% to 24% in three days, its highest market position since Sundance.
Glenn Thompson's PA-15 Odds Fall 9 Points With No Public Catalyst
Republican odds in PA-15 slid from 96% to 87% in three days. Kalshi and Polymarket now show a 14-point spread, suggesting the sell-off is platform-specific.
Scalise Caps GOP at 225 Seats as Blue Tsunami Odds Hit 48%
Mace predicts a midterm 'bloodbath' for Republicans as seven House members break with Trump on Iran. Dual-chamber sweep odds up 8 points in three days.
Trump Nobel Peace Prize Volume Doubles With 3 Weeks to Announcement
Daily volume hit $98,631 on Sep 18, more than double the $45,326 baseline. Trump's composite probability held flat at 7%, though platform prices range from 2% to 20%.
The Odyssey Hits 58% for Best Original Score With No Rival in Sight
An 8-point climb in 3 days reflects a competitive vacuum, not a campaign breakthrough. Fall contenders haven't been heard yet.
Begich Endorses Kreiss-Tomkins, Pushing Alaska Governor Odds to 76%
Tom Begich dropped out and endorsed Kreiss-Tomkins on August 31, ending Democratic vote-splitting. Kreiss-Tomkins led the August 18 primary with 21.6%.
Sununu NH Senate Race Draws 10x Volume Spike, Still Priced at 19%
Traders put $153K into this market on Sept 18 vs. a $14K daily average. Pappas holds 82% despite a toss-up reclassification.
Rays Clinch First AL Playoff Spot, Lead Pennant Market at 27%
Tampa Bay's clinch triggered an 11pp surge to 27%, with Kalshi at 28% and Polymarket at 26%. The Yankees' 19-8 run since Aug. 16 and a remaining head-to-head series keep the race open.
Fed January 2027 Hike Odds Hit 34% After Warsh Defies Trump
Polymarket and Kalshi both price a 1-in-3 chance of another Fed hike in January 2027, up 12 points in three days, with inflation still at 3.3%.
Randy Fine's FL-06 Odds Fall 8 Points Despite $3.9M War Chest
Republican odds in FL-06 fell from 96% to 88% in three days. Kalshi prices the seat at 81% while Polymarket sits at 94%, a 13-point platform gap.
Pantoja Enters UFC 331 as 37% Underdog to Reclaim Flyweight Belt
Pantoja's implied probability fell 12 points in three days, driven by a nine-month injury layoff and Van's successful title defense in May.
Digger Rebounds to 30% for Best Original Screenplay
Digger climbed from 7% to 30%, overtaking The Debut at 28% in a race where no film has earned a single precursor win and Kalshi prices Digger at 52% while Polymarket holds it at 8%.
Cannan Drops 13 Points in Kelowna Mayor Race After Debate
A public safety debate failed to help Cannan on his own issue. His win probability fell from 58% to 45% with four weeks left in the race.
Gottheimer 99% Favorite in NJ-05 as Markets Drop 10 Points Without Cause
Forecasters hold at D+17.4 and a 99-in-100 win probability while Kalshi and Polymarket diverge by 18 points, suggesting thin-liquidity pricing rather than a real shift.
Likud Falls to 31% as Bennett-Lapid Merger Reshapes Israeli Election
Polls show Yashar trading the lead with Likud, while the merged Bennett-Lapid bloc closes the coordination gap that cost the opposition five consecutive elections.
Sutcliffe Leads Ottawa Mayor Race at 36% But Markets Price Him at 84%
A July Liaison Strategies poll shows Sutcliffe down 10 points from April, yet a three-way opposition split keeps his market probability near certainty.
Clarity Act Got 49 Senate Votes, One Short of 50
The Senate voted 49-50 against the Clarity Act on Sept. 15. Three Republican defections joined unified Democratic opposition to sink the bill one vote short of a basic majority.
Lions' NFC North Odds Fall to 26% After Buffalo Loss, Pacheco IR
Detroit's division title probability dropped 10 points in three days. Pacheco faces a 12-week absence after back surgery to remove a nerve-pressing mass.
Maye's Three Picks and Brown Injury Cut Patriots' AFC East Odds to 22%
New England fell from 32% to 22% in three days after a Week 1 loss to Seattle exposed both quarterback decision-making and a four-week receiver absence.
Buckhout Wins NC-01 GOP Primary as Republican Odds Hit 48%
CBS projected Buckhout as the GOP nominee in a redrawn NC-01, pushing Republican odds from 36% to 48% in three days. Davis now faces a near coin-flip race.
Florida Governor Trading Triples as Donalds Holds 84% Over Jolly
$83K traded Sept 17, triple the weekly baseline, with Donalds at 84% composite as the Nov. 3 election closes in.
Peltola Leads Sullivan by 8 Points as Alaska Dem Sweep Hits 62%
The combo market climbed 12 points in three days. Cook now lists Alaska as a toss-up alongside Texas, Ohio, and Iowa.
Nebraska Senate Volume Jumps 8x as Ricketts-Osborn Polls Tie, GOP at 68%
$150,752 traded on Sep 17, over 8x the baseline. Republican odds held at 68% even as polls placed both candidates in the 46-48% range.
CO-08 Democrats Hit 84% With No New Polls to Back the Move
Manny Rutinel is priced at 84% to flip CO-08, up 9 points in three days. No polling, endorsement, or fundraising data has surfaced to explain the jump.
Cruise Hits 26% for Best Actor as Scott's 'Elsinore' Storms TIFF
Cruise gained 8 points in three days to 26%, even as Andrew Scott's 'Elsinore' drew frontrunner praise at TIFF and Malkovich won Venice.
Lawrence Wins MI-07 Primary, Lifting Democratic Odds to 60%
Progressive William Lawrence beat moderate Bridget Brink in the MI-07 Democratic primary. Prediction markets now price Democrats at 60% against incumbent Tom Barrett.
Progressives Unite Behind Pete Fry, Cutting Ken Sim's Re-Election Odds
Azaroff's withdrawal leaves Fry as the sole progressive challenger. Sim falls from 52% to 34% on Kalshi and Polymarket, priced as an underdog for the first time.
Gillingham Falls to 46% as Winnipeg Mayoral Field Reaches 13
Incumbent's probability fell 9 points in three days; two new candidates entered in one week, including the race's first female contender.
Pat Murphy at 72% to Win NL Manager of the Year Three Straight Times
Murphy jumped 14 points in three days as voters weigh MLB's best record, dual surgeries, and his own admission the Brewers haven't fully gelled.