Market News & Analysis
Auto-generated, data-driven articles on significant prediction market moves and cross-platform arbitrage opportunities. 1,705 published · page 2 of 18.
Who Will Win the Iowa Senate Election? Polls and Latest News
Turek rose from about 44% to a record 52% on Kalshi on Nov. 2 as NYT/Siena showed him up 48-47, though GrayHouse had Hinson ahead by 2.
Iowa Senate Polls: Turek and Hinson Split Within a Point Before Vote
Final Iowa polls split by pollster, inside the margin of error. Kalshi's Iowa "closest Senate race" contract rose 5 percentage points to 19% in three days.
Ayotte vs. Warmington Polls: UNH Shows a 48-48 Tie, Others Have Ayotte
Ayotte's win price fell about 9 percentage points to 84% after UNH's final poll showed a tie, against a RealClearPolling average of Ayotte +8.8.
Which Cryptocurrencies Will Have a Positive Return in 2026? Latest News
Kalshi odds of a positive 2026 for XRP rose to 14% from 6% as the record Binance hack left XRP near $1.25.
McGuire Polls vs. Perriello: VA-05 Odds Hit 66% as Sabato Calls Toss-Up
McGuire gained 8 points in three days on Polymarket as Sabato and State Navigate moved toward Perriello. The last public poll had McGuire up 6 points.
FL-27 House winner? Latest News
Salazar fell about 7 points in three days, from 65%, after Trump's Oct. 30 endorsement, with RedBox showing her up only 49%-46% on Rodriguez.
Did Amy Madigan Win the Oscar? Yes, but Her Market Shows 20%
Madigan won for 'Weapons' on March 15, 2026, yet Actress A fell about 7 percentage points to 20% in a market set to resolve March 14, 2027.
Alaska Senate Polls vs. Markets: Volume Hits 6.84x as DOJ Suit Is Tossed
$500,520 traded Oct. 31 vs. a $73,164 daily average. A judge then dismissed DOJ's certification suit, and Republican odds fell to 28%.
FL-13 House winner? Latest News
Luna fell 8 points in three days to the mid-60s, while the latest two public polls split on who leads.
Who Will Win the Bulgarian Presidential Election? Polls and Latest News
Her price rose 10 percentage points from 74% over three days. Lupa.bg's unofficial 10:30 reading showed her 22 points ahead of Andrey Gyurov.
Nebraska Senate Race: Ricketts Leads Osborn 49% to 43% in NYT/Siena Poll
On Point Polling has Osborn up 1.5, while Ricketts' market win probability rose from 71% to 75% over three days.
Cowboys' Maxx Crosby Trade Chances Halve to 6% Despite Jerry Jones
Dallas fell from 12% to 6% in three days as Pelissero reported Crosby wants to stay in Las Vegas and the two-first price held.
Hyde-Smith vs. Colom Polls: Market Volume Hits 2.3x as Pinkins Stays In
Oct. 30 trading hit $137,071 vs. a $60,108 daily average as Pinkins refused to exit and Bill Clinton stumped for Colom in Tupelo.
Who Will Win the 2026 Kansas Senate Election? Polls and Latest News
The market gained about 10 points in three days, while Emerson and CNN/SSRS polls show a narrower 4-point Hamilton lead in Kansas.
Which AI Will Be the Best at the End of 2026? Latest News
Claude fell about 6 points on Kalshi even as Opus 5.5 topped the Artificial Analysis Index v5, because the market resolves on the LMArena text leaderboard, where Gemini 4 models lead.
Byron Donalds vs. David Jolly Polls: Final Survey Shows 2-Point Race
Donalds' win chance slipped about 8 points to 68% after St. Pete Polls had him up 48%-46%, while other polls show wider leads.
How Many Senate Seats Will Republicans Win? 48-Seat Volume Hits 4x
The 48 bracket fell from 16% to 12% on Oct. 30 on $137,248 in volume, 4.08x its seven-day baseline.
Shomari Figures Polls: Marques Leads 48% to 46% in AL-02
Sabato's Crystal Ball moved AL-02 to Toss-up, and the market's 2-seat Democratic outcome rose from 32% to 38% over three days.
Will Unemployment Top 4.1% in October? Odds Slip as Claims Hit 194K
"Above 4.1%" fell 9 percentage points in three days as initial claims hit 194,000, the lowest since mid-July. September's rate was 4.2%.
Why Is Trading Surging on Iowa's 2027 Title Chances? Volume Hits 3.65x
Oct. 30 volume of $70,961 across 592 trades beat a $19,457 daily average, the same day McKeever made the Abdul-Jabbar watch list.
Which Leaders Will Leave Office in 2026? Latest News
Kalshi's exit price fell about 8 percentage points to 18% after the final count left his bloc at 53 seats and neither side at the 61 needed.
Blue Wave Market Hits 85% as Volume Nearly Triples Before Nov. 3
Oct. 29 volume hit $114,849 against a $42,331 daily baseline, as late generic-ballot models and NYT scenarios landed five days out.
Hantavirus Pandemic Market Volume Jumps 16.6x Despite WHO Outbreak End
$191,900 traded on Oct. 29 against an $11,544 daily average, while WHO had closed the MV Hondius cluster at 13 cases and 3 deaths.
How Many Semi Trucks Will Tesla Produce in a Quarter in 2026? Latest News
Above 1000 fell about 22 points to 8% after Tesla's Oct. 21 Q3 update named Semi volume production but gave no unit figure; capacity is 25,000 a year.
Which Company Will Have the Best AI Model at the End of October? Latest News
Google rose about 10 percentage points in three days from 87% after Carbon claimed an Artificial Analysis score of 59 on Oct 28.
Why Is House Seats Market Volume Surging? 6.71x Jump on Final Forecasts
$174,942 traded Oct. 29 vs. a $26,078 daily average as NPR, NYT Upshot and Decision Desk HQ forecast a Democratic House. Above 237 held at 1%.
Will the Cubs Sign Tarik Skubal? A $184M Record Meets a $350M+ Price
Chicago C slid about 10 points to 4% in three days on Kalshi, while Bowden's best fits skip the Cubs and his projection nearly doubles their record deal.
Pulido Leads De La Cruz 51-44 in TX-15 Poll; Market Hits 87%
The market moved 5 points in three days after Sabato's Crystal Ball shifted TX-15 from Toss-Up to Lean Democratic on Oct 27.
Osborn's Nebraska Senate Odds Hit 30% as Echelon Poll Shows 1-Point Race
Politix+ shows Osborn +0.3, yet Decision Desk HQ gives Ricketts 73% and 535 gives him 95% ahead of the Nov. 3 vote.
Mikel Brown Jr Rookie of the Year Volume Triples After Boston Game
Kalshi traded $46,128 on Oct. 27 vs. a $13,509 daily average (3.41x) as Brown's contract rose from 19% to 28% after a 17-point night.
Which Films Will Be Nominated for Best Picture at the Oscars? Latest News
The market fell 5 points, from 76% to 71%, with no confirmed trigger, as Amazon MGM's 15-category push meets a crowded Best Picture race.
Who Will Be Nominated for Best Actor at the Oscars? Latest News
Ryan Gosling has a market-implied 57% chance of receiving a 2027 Best Actor nomination for Project Hail Mary.
The Odyssey Holds Near 50% for Best Picture as A24 Doc Gains
The Odyssey is up about 5 points in three days even as A24's You Can See Everything, which opened to $19.5M, draws bets at bookmakers.
Pro Football: 1000+ Receiving Yards Season: Latest News
Washington has 416 yards through six games and needs 584 more. His 64-yard Week 6 followed a 124-yard London game; no injury is listed.
WI-03 House winner? Latest News
Van Orden's win probability fell about 6 points in three days to 16%, as his Iran war debate remark drew coverage and the race passed $41.5M in ads.
Why Is Anthony Edwards' MVP Volume Up 2.58x While Odds Fall?
Oct. 27 volume hit $73,123 vs. a $28,297 daily average, the same day reports said Edwards would have knee surgery and miss up to two months.
Thunder's No. 1 Seed Odds Drop After Williams, Wallace Injuries
Oklahoma City fell from 56% to 34% in three days after Presti said both Jalen Williams and Cason Wallace need surgery.
Celtics East Title Volume Hits 3.34x Average as Price Holds at 14%
Oct. 27 volume reached $83,641 versus a $25,065 seven-day average, the highest of the 30-day window, as OKC injuries reshaped the East.
Giants DC Names Arvell Reese Green-Dot Candidate; DROY Odds Hit 28%
Reese rose 10 points in three days on Kalshi, with David Bailey at 26%. Wilson also named Micah McFadden first for the role, and McFadden later started against Houston.
Will Man City Be Relegated? Odds Dip to 34% Despite 114-Charge Verdict
Kalshi's relegation price for City slid about 8 points in three days. The penalty that decides relegation waits on a hearing expected around January 2027.
Will USD/BRL Hit 5.5 in 2026? Lula Win Sent Dollar to R$5.60
The 5.5 Or Above contract rose from 26% to 94% in three days, though the dollar closed Oct 26 at R$5.4066, below the 5.5 line.
Ashley Moody's Senate Odds Hold at 88% as Volume Jumps 7x
Oct 26 volume hit $216,650, 7.43x the $29,156 daily average, as Trump and Obama endorsements landed and polls showed a 4-point race.
Did Mbappé Finish Top 3 in the Ballon d'Or? Yes, Second Behind Kane
Mbappé's top-3 contract rose about 7 points to 96% after the Oct. 26 London ceremony placed Lamine Yamal third and Mbappé second.
Chances WTI Hits $115 by Year-End Fall as Iran Diplomacy Pulls Oil Back
The $115.01 outcome dropped 11 points to 35% as Qatari and Saudi-Turkey-Pakistan talks with Iran eased WTI from $103.27 to $101.97.
Vikings Best-Record Odds Rise to 15% as Last Unbeaten NFL Team
Minnesota climbed from 9% to 15% on Kalshi after a 16-10 win over Indianapolis, while an earlier Kalshi View snapshot had the 49ers at 31%.
Shomari Figures Polls: AL-2 Tied 47-47, Forecast Model Leans Marques
Alabama's one-Democratic-seat market fell about 8 points in three days, despite no confirmed cause, as Cook moved AL-2 to Lean R.
Will Base launch a token? $6B FDV odds fall to 18%
The $6B contract fell 8 percentage points in three days and resolves No on every threshold if no token launches by Dec 31, 2027.
Bad Bunny's #2 Google Search Odds Rise Despite Fake Belinda Photos
The contract gained about 6 percentage points in three days to 24% as AI-made Belinda images spread; neither artist confirms a romance.
Thunder's Title Odds Fall to 19% After Jalen Williams Injury
OKC fell 5 points in three days after Williams' Oct. 25 leg injury, and sportsbooks now list San Antonio ahead of the Thunder.
Jay Feely's AZ-01 Odds Rise to 21% Despite Poll Showing Shah Ahead
A super PAC-sponsored RedBox poll has Shah up 48.7% to 43.2%, yet Feely's market price gained about 5 percentage points in three days.
Zendaya to Campaign for Best Actress for 'Dune: Part Three'
Kalshi traders lifted her nomination price 10 points to 25% by Oct. 26; a nod would be her first, and she has never been nominated.
Lindsay James Hits 71% in Iowa's 2nd as Health Care Shapes Race
Polymarket moved James from 64% to 71% in three days. Cook rates IA-02 a Toss Up, while Sabato's Crystal Ball moved it to Lean D on Oct. 20.
Bukele's Chances of Winning 2027 Election Slip to 89%
The contract fell about 7 percentage points in three days with no confirmed trigger, ahead of a single-round February 28 vote with no runoff.
Ottawa Mayor Polls Put Leiper 4 Back, but His Chances Fall to 7%
Quorus had Sutcliffe 28%, Leiper 24% with a third undecided. Traders cut Leiper from 13% to 7% in three days before the Oct. 26 vote.
Antonelli's Title Odds Hit 99% as Trading Jumps 7.97x After Austin Win
$264,550 traded on Oct. 25, 7.97x the daily norm, as Antonelli's ninth win left him 123 points clear with 125 left and Mexico next.
Olivia Chow Favored for Toronto Mayor After Late Polls Flip
Chow rose from 52% to 72% in three days as Liaison flipped to Chow 52-44, Pollara showed 48-40 and Odessa Paloma Parker endorsed her.
Google's Best-AI-Model Odds Fall to 36% Despite Gemini 4 Argon Launch
Google slid about 9 points in three days on Polymarket as independent rankings keep Gemini 4 Argon behind Claude Opus 5.5 and Sonnet 5.5.
Claude Rises to 57% for Best AI in 2026 on Kalshi
Claude gained about 9 percentage points in three days in the Kalshi year-end best AI market, though Gemini 4 Argon currently ranks first on the LM Arena text leaderboard that resolves it.
Mealer vs Gutierrez TX-9 Polls: DCCC Survey Shows a One-Point Race
Mealer fell about 8 points to 76% after a Democratic-sponsored poll put her up 48-47, while the TX-9 poll average still reads R+4.2.
Iotova's Runoff Odds Fall to 70% After Exit Poll Shows 3-Point Lead
Trend's final poll had Iotova up 18.1 points; Dnevnik.bg exit-poll data shows about 3. Polymarket had her at 88% three days earlier.
Measles Passes 4,400 Cases, Yet 'At Least 4000' Term Average Drops
The CDC's 2025 total was only 2,289, so a multi-year average sits below 4,000 even as the contract fell 16 percentage points in three days.
Will Oil Be Above $83 on Election Day? WTI Sits $14 Over the Line
WTI settled at $97.15 on Oct 21. Hormuz mine attacks and Houthi strikes on Aramco keep crude more than $14 above the $83 strike.
Trump Won't Commit to Endorsing Vance in 2028, Odds Fall to 5%
The pre-2027 endorsement market fell about 6 points after Trump said "we have to get through the midterms" on Oct. 20.
Will the Bears Move to Indiana? Braun Says Hammond Talks Plod Along
Indiana's odds fell 10 percentage points in three days as Pritzker eyed an Illinois deal when lawmakers return, with the veto session running to Dec. 3.
Fed Pause, Then Two Hikes? Pause-Hike-Hike Odds Hit 19%
CME FedWatch puts an October hold at 84.5%, and a Reuters poll shows economists expect a December hike. January is the open question.
Ottawa Mayoral Odds: Leiper Rises to 13% on Polymarket
Leiper's implied odds rose from 5% to 13% in three days, while the Oct. 9 Nanos survey had Sutcliffe ahead of Leiper among decided voters.
Darian Mensah's Heisman Chances Climb to 22% as Miami Hits No. 1
Mensah rose 8 percentage points in three days after a 326-yard, 3-TD 2OT win over Florida State. Jeremiah Smith still leads the Heisman market.
Will Morgan Stanley Lead Anthropic's IPO? 88% Ahead of S-1
Polymarket's Morgan Stanley contract rose 6 percentage points over three days to 88%, while Reuters said Anthropic's S-1 could go public as soon as Friday.
Will Solana Hit $100 in October? Odds Fall to 48% Despite ETF Outflows
The $100 dip contract lost 30 points in three days as SOL steadied near $106, about 6% above the strike, while ETF outflows reached 12 sessions.
Will Man City Be Relegated? Odds Hit 45% on Points-Deduction Report
Kalshi's relegation price for City rose from 23% to 45% in three days, while City have won all seven league games and are appealing.
Shannon Taylor's VA-01 Odds Hit 63% Amid Sheriffs' Ad, Outreach
Taylor gained about 6 points in three days as her campaign aired a sheriffs' ad and Democrats expanded district outreach two weeks out.
Sandra Hüller's Best Actress Odds Rise as 'Rose' Pulls Ahead
Kalshi traders lifted Hüller 8 percentage points to 64% in three days. Gold Derby says 'Rose' has overtaken 'Fatherland' as her stronger lead bid.
Blakeman Slips to 6% as GOP Poll Shows Hochul Up 4.4 Points
Oct 20 volume hit $202,122, 4.21x the $47,967 daily average of the prior week, with Kalshi carrying about 98% of the dollars.
Q3 2026 GDP Above 2.5%? Odds Fall to 84% Despite GDPNow at 3.5%
The market fell 8 points in three days though GDPNow cut only a tenth on weaker housing starts. Goldman holds at 3.3%. BEA reports Oct 29.
Democrats' 50 Senate Seats Odds Rise to 14% as Volume Jumps 7.6x
Oct 20 trading hit $244,654 against a $32,150 daily average, the same day Ohio and North Carolina polls favored Democrats.
Titans' No. 1 Pick Odds Fall to 18% After First Win Over Colts
Tennessee fell from 24% to 18% in three days after its 26-20 comeback over the Colts, while winless Miami became the market favorite.
Acton Leads Ramaswamy 50-43 in Marist Poll; Ohio Odds Hit 77%
Acton gained about 6 points over three days as markets priced her ahead, even as an estranged-mother ad dominated coverage.
Olivia Chow's Toronto Mayor Chances Slip to 68% as Polls Split
Down about 6 points in three days: Mainstreet and Build Canada put Bradford narrowly ahead, Nanos calls it a tie, Pollara keeps Chow up 7.
Troy Jackson vs. Susan Collins Polls: Jackson Leads 49%-47%
Suffolk and InsiderAdvantage both have Jackson ahead, a toss-up, while Kalshi traders raised him from 58% to 64% after the Oct. 15 Bangor debate.
Texas' Title Odds Fall to 4% After Second Straight 27-24 Loss
Florida's 27-24 upset in Austin dropped the Longhorns to 4-2 and No. 19 in the AP poll, and star pass rusher Colin Simmons may miss time.
Will Hyperliquid Hit $100 in October? Odds Fall to 2% as HYPE Slips
HYPE fell 8.9% on the week to about $77-79, leaving a 27-30% climb to $100 with fewer than two weeks left. The contract was at 8% three days earlier.
SEC Title Chances Fall to 38% After Georgia, Alabama Lose in Week 7
Five of the AP top seven lost on Oct. 17, and the SEC dropped about 6 points in three days on Polymarket.
Will Gas Be Above $4.25 on Election Day? Russia Waiver Hits Oil
AAA's average was $4.2786 on Oct. 20, about 3 cents over the line, down from $4.3413 a week earlier as oil and gasoline futures eased.
Alibaba's Odds as Best Chinese AI Fall to 10% After Two Exits
Alibaba dropped about 9 points in three days. Neither Rong Yu nor Zhang Yingya leads the Qwen text models that decide the arena.ai ranking.
OpenAI Added a $500 ChatGPT Plan. Why Did Hike Odds Fall to 8%?
A Kalshi contract lost 6 points in three days, while OpenAI also trimmed Pro 200 usage limits for new subscribers. Plus is still $20.
Bayern Munich's 2027 Bundesliga Title Odds Hit 88% After 6-1 Leipzig Win
Bayern's title price rose about 6 percentage points as the 6-1 win ended two straight draws; Dortmund is level on 14 points.
Anthropic Hits 52% for Best AI Model Despite Gemini 4 Arena Lead
Anthropic rose 6 percentage points from 46% in three days while Google's Gemini 4 Argon took first on Arena's text leaderboard.
Will California Gas Hit $6.80? Pump Prices Fall After Winter-Blend Order
AAA's average fell to $6.17 after Newsom's early winter-blend order, leaving about $0.63 to climb before year-end.
Colts' AFC South Odds Fall to 4% After Ballard Firing, Titans Loss
Indianapolis slid from 11% to 4% in three days. The Oct. 19 dismissal of GM Chris Ballard followed a 26-20 loss to the winless Titans.
Will Sabrina Carpenter Announce a Tour This Year? Odds Fall to 18%
Kalshi traders cut Carpenter's announcement price by 20 percentage points in three days, and no confirmed news explains the drop.
Claude's Best AI of 2026 Odds Hit 51% as Gemini Holds Arena Lead
Claude rose about 6 points in three days, from 45%, after Opus 5.5 topped the Swfte index while Gemini 4 Argon kept LMSYS Arena #1.
Will NC Senate Turnout Top 3.9M? Odds Reach 82% as Early Vote Grows
The Above 3.90M contract rose 16 points in three days as early ballots passed 500,000, about 48% ahead of 2022. Mail voting is down 31%.
Will Oil Be Above $89 on Election Day? Odds Rise to 84%
WTI traded near $97 on Oct 19 after Iran-linked tanker attacks in Hormuz, still roughly $8 above the $89 strike, and the contract stands at 84%.
Will STRC Hit $100 by Dec 31? Odds Slip Despite $3B Buyback Cap
Odds fell about 7 percentage points to 75% in three days even as Strategy bought $193.1M of STRC in a week and raised its buyback cap.
Darian Mensah's Heisman Odds Hit 18% After Miami 2OT Win Over FSU
Mensah rose about 8 points from 10% after a 326-yard, three-TD night in a 43-35 double-overtime win. Jeremiah Smith still leads the market near 48%.
Will Trump Endorse JD Vance? Odds Fall to 5% After 'Too Early'
The market fell 23 percentage points in three days with little time before Dec 31. Vance says he will decide after the midterms.
Oklahoma State's Big 12 Title Odds Fall to 5% in Houston Loss
The Cowboys fell 35-32 at No. 20 Houston on Oct. 17 and are 2-1 in Big 12 play, behind three 3-0 teams. Their price fell 12 points in three days.
Anthropic Valuation: $1.5T IPO Talk Leaves $2.5T Far Off by Dec. 31
A $2.5T mark needs about 67% more than the $1.5T figure some investors discussed after Anthropic's Oct. 14 investor day, per Reuters.
Will Solana Hit $110 in October? Odds Slip Before Alpenglow Upgrade
SOL near $103.48 on Oct 18 needs about 6% to touch $110 by Nov 1, with ETF outflows and a hot CPI print both present ahead of the Oct 21 upgrade.
Fetterman's 2028 VP Odds Jump to 26% Months After Aides Report
The contract gained about 12 points in three days, though the Intelligencer report is nearly five months old and the trigger is unclear.